CC: Impatti Ambiente fisico

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CC Impatti Ambiente fisico
CLIMATOLOGIA
Prof. Carlo Bisci
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Direct and indirect effects of non-climate
drivers
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Glaciers
Areal extent of Chacaltaya Glacier, Bolivia, from
1940 to 2005
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Water
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Historical and recent measurements from Lake
Tanganyika, East Africa (a) upper mixed layer
(surface water) temperatures (b) deep-water
(600 m) temperatures (c) depth of the
upper mixed layer. Triangles represent data
collected by a different method. Error bars
represent standard deviations
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Impact of human activities on freshwater
resources and their management, with climate
change being only one of multiple pressures
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Change in annual runoff relative to 1900-70, in
percent
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• Erosion and sediment transport
• change in the erosive power of rainfall
• changes in plant canopy caused by shifts in plant
  biomass production associated with moisture
  regime
• changes in litter cover on the ground caused by
  changes in plant residue decomposition rates
  driven by temperature, in moisture-dependent soil
  microbial activity, and in plant biomass
  production rates
• changes in soil moisture due to shifting
  precipitation regimes and evapotranspiration
  rates, which changes infiltration and runoff
  ratios
• soil erodibility changes due to a decrease in
  soil organic matter concentrations (which lead to
  a soil structure that is more susceptible to
  erosion) and to increased runoff (due to
  increased soil surface sealing and crusting)
• a shift in winter precipitation from non-erosive
  snow to erosive rainfall due to increasing winter
  temperatures
• melting of permafrost, which induces an erodible
  soil state from a previously non-erodible one
• shifts in land use made necessary to accommodate
  new climatic regimes.

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Annual crop water demand and water supply for
Trout Creek, Okanagan region, Canada, modelled
for 1961 to 1990 (historic) and three 30-year
time slices in the future. Each dot represents
one year. Drought supply threshold is represented
by the vertical line, maximum observed demand is
shown as the horizontal line
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Relative costs per unit of water saved or
supplied in the Okanagan region, British Columbia
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Impact of population growth and climate change on
the number of people (in millions) living in
water-stressed river basins (defined as per
capita renewable water resources of less than
1,000 m3/yr) around 2050
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Cross-scale issues in the integrated water
management of the Colorado River Basin
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Some adaptation options for water supply and
demand (the list is not exhaustive)
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Potential contribution of the water sector to
attain the Millennium Development Goals.
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 Illustrative map of future climate change
impacts on freshwater which are a threat to the
sustainable development of the affected regions.
Background map Ensemble mean change of annual
runoff, in percent, between present (1981 to
2000) and 2081 to 2100 for the SRES A1B emissions
scenario.
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Sea
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Long-term changes in the mean number of marine
zooplankton species per association in the North
Atlantic from 1960 to 1975 and from 1996 to 1999.
The number of temperate species has increased and
the diversity of colder-temperate, sub-Arctic and
Arctic species has decreased in the North
Atlantic. The scale (0 to 1) indicates the
proportion of biogeographical types of species in
total assemblages of zooplankton.
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Shoreline
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Selected global non-climatic environmental and
socio-economic trends relevant to coastal areas
for the SRES storylines. Regional and local
deviations are expected.
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Main climate drivers for coastal systems, their
trends due to climate change, and their main
physical and ecosystem effects. (Trend ?
increase ? uncertain R regional variability).
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Increases in the height (m) of the 50-year
extreme water level.
(a) In the northern Bay of Bengal under the IS92a
climate scenario in 2040-2060 (K Kolkata
(Calcutta), C Chittagong)
(b) Around the UK for the A2 scenario in the
2080s
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Flooding around Cairns, Australia during the gt100
year return-period event under current and 2050
climate conditions based on a 2xCO2 scenario.
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Relative vulnerability of coastal deltas as shown
by the indicative population potentially
displaced by current sea-level trends to 2050.
(Extreme gt1 million High 1 million to
50,000 Medium 50,000 to 5,000).
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Summary of climate-related impacts on
socio-economic sectors in coastal zones.
X strong x weak negligible or not
established.
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Estimates of the population (in millions) of the
coastal flood plain in 1990 and the 2080s
(following Nicholls, 2004). Assumes uniform
population growth net coastward migration could
substantially increase these numbers.
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Indicative estimates of regional exposure as a
function of elevation and baseline (1995)
socio-economics. MER market exchange rates
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Estimates of the average annual number of coastal
flood victims (in millions) due to sea-level
rise. Assumes no change in storm intensity and
evolving protection. Range reflects uniform
population growth. Base baseline without
sea-level rise aSLR additional impacts due to
sea-level rise.
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Real estate damage costs related to flood levels
for the Rio de la Plata, Argentina
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Health effects of climate change and sea-level
rise in coastal areas.
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Key hotspots of societal vulnerability in coastal
zones.
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Causes, selected consequences and the total costs
of an assumed sea-level rise, for developing and
developed countries, and as a global total.
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Recent extreme events lessons for coastal
adaptation to climate change

• An effective early warning communication and
  response system can reduce death and destruction

• Hazard awareness education and personal hazard
  experience are important contributors to reducing
  community vulnerability

• Many factors reduce the ability or willingness of
  people to flee an impending disaster, including
  the warning time, access and egress routes, and
  their perceived need to protect property, pets
  and possessions

• Coastal landforms (coral reefs, barrier islands)
  and wetland ecosystems (mangroves, marshes)
  provide a natural first line of protection from
  storm surges and flooding, despite divergent
  views about the extent to which they reduce
  destruction

• Recurrent events reduce the resilience of natural
  and artificial defences

• In the aftermath of extreme events, additional
  trauma occurs in terms of dispossession and
  mental health

• Uncoordinated and poorly regulated construction
  has accentuated vulnerability

• Effective disaster prevention and response rely
  on strong governance and institutions, as well as
  adequate public preparedness.

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Major impediments to the success of adaptation in
the coastal zone.
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Selected tools that support coastal adaptation
assessments and interventions.
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Evolution of planned coastal adaptation
practices.
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Selected information on costs and benefits of
adaptation.