Economics 172 Issues in African Economic Development

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Economics 172Issues in African Economic
Development

• Lecture 28
• May 4, 2006

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Conflict and Economic Development

• War and conflict could be critical for
  understanding cross-country economic development
  patterns (Drèze 1999, World Bank 2003)
• Conflict may be particularly important for
  Sub-Saharan Africa, where two-thirds of countries
  experienced armed conflicts in the 1980-1990s

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Existing research

• However, recent empirical studies have not found
  persistent local effects of war damage on
  population (Davis and Weinstein 2002, Brakman et
  al. 2004) or economic performance (Miguel and
  Roland 2005)

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Existing research

• However, recent empirical studies have not found
  persistent local effects of war damage on
  population (Davis and Weinstein 2002, Brakman et
  al. 2004) or economic performance (Miguel and
  Roland 2005)
• But existing empirical work does not study the
  impact of war on institutions the theoretical
  channel most likely to have persistent economic
  growth effects (e.g., by shifting the aggregate
  production function scale parameter, A)

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War and Local Institutions in Sierra Leone

• After Siaka Stevens stepped down in 1985, and the
  total economic collapse of the 1980s, Sierra
  Leone experienced a brutal civil conflict
  1991-2002

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War and Local Institutions in Sierra Leone

• After Siaka Stevens stepped down in 1985, and the
  total economic collapse of the 1980s, Sierra
  Leone experienced a brutal civil conflict
  1991-2002
• Bellows and Miguel (2006) estimate the
  relationship between conflict intensity and local
  institutional, political and social outcomes in
  Sierra Leone

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The Sierra Leone Civil War (1991-2002)

• Fighting started in the eastern Liberian border
  but eventually affected the entire country
• Radical dissidents trained in Libya, led by Foday
  Sankoh, formed the Revolutionary United Front
  (RUF). RUF was allied with Charles Taylor in
  Liberia

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The Sierra Leone Civil War (1991-2002)

• Fighting started in the eastern Liberian border
  but eventually affected the entire country
• Radical dissidents trained in Libya, led by Foday
  Sankoh, formed the Revolutionary United Front
  (RUF). RUF was allied with Charles Taylor in
  Liberia
• The Sierra Leone Army (SLA) was corrupted by the
  mid-1980s, with officer positions going to the
  highest bidder. Collusion between rebel
  Revolutionary United Front (RUF) and SLA meant
  that most violence was directed against civilians

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Consequences of the Sierra Leone war

• RUF attackers massacred chiefs and elders,
  destroyed public buildings, displaced civilians
• Recruits often attacked their home villages. Many
  children were forcibly recruited

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Consequences of the Sierra Leone war

• RUF attackers massacred chiefs and elders,
  destroyed public buildings, displaced civilians
• Recruits often attacked their home villages. Many
  children were forcibly recruited
• The Civilian Defense Forces (CDF) were locally
  organized and financed militias that successfully
  fought off the RUF/SLA in some areas
• CDFs were organized around traditional secret
  Poro societies, including Mende hunter groups

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Causes of the war

• Diamond smuggling financed group leaders and arms
  purchases, and armed groups often fought over
  control of the mines
• Deep underlying grievances against the state also
  fed the violence Sierra Leone was second to
  last in the 1990 UN Human Development Index, and
  public services had completely fallen apart

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Empirical approach

• Investigate association of conflict with postwar
  socioeconomic outcomes, and with local
  institutional and social outcomes (village
  meetings, voter registration, community groups,
  religiosity) in 2004-5
• We condition on geographic controls, location of
  diamond mines, district fixed effects, prewar
  socioeconomic characteristics

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Empirical approach

• Investigate association of conflict with postwar
  socioeconomic outcomes, and with local
  institutional and social outcomes (village
  meetings, voter registration, community groups,
  religiosity) in 2004-5
• We condition on geographic controls, location of
  diamond mines, district fixed effects, prewar
  socioeconomic characteristics
• Caveat 1 the location of violence is not random
• Caveat 2 nation-wide effects of the war cannot
  be estimated using this identification strategy

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Where was the fighting in Sierra Leone?

• Local diamond mines, higher prewar incomes are
  both positively associated with local attacks and
  battles (Table 2), greed as a driving factor
• Prewar 1989 school enrollment (5-18 year olds) is
  negatively correlated with conflict victimization
• Organization of CDFs better there?

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Conflict intensity and local institutions

• Conflict victimization is positively associated
  with several measures of postwar political
  mobilization including attendance at community
  meetings, voter registration, community group
  membership
• But there is no significant relationship between
  either conflict measure and postwar 2004
  socioeconomic outcomes (per capita consumption,
  schooling, child nutrition)

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The bottom line

• We find no adverse effects of civil war violence
  in Sierra Leone on local living standards or
  institutions
• Several measures of political mobilization /
  collective action are somewhat better in areas
  that experienced more violence during the
  conflict
• 60 of 2005 IRCBP respondents claim that the war
  positively impacted community cooperation
• Institutions, norms, and organizations forged
  during war persist into the postwar period

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Implications

• More speculatively did the Sierra Leone civil
  war generate new and possibly stronger
  institutions?
• Keen (2005) claims the war increased political
  awareness and mobilization, especially for youths
• Ferme (2001, p. 228) Sierra Leoneans have
  sometimes turned social instability into a
  creative, though violent, opportunity to
  refashion themselves vis-à-vis their own
  institutions

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Map of Africa