Land in:

1
Land in Other Uses In Transition In Switchgrass
Land Use
Influx, Turnover Retrofit
Land Allocation
Potential EtOH Demand from Fuel Usage
Crop Lifetime Net SG Addition Of Acres
Fuel Consumption
Retiring Total Fleet Size Fleet A B Size
Land Established in SG Land Converting to SG Land
Reverting
Vehicle Influx Time to Retirement Retrofitting
Logic
Ag RD and Yield
Acres in Switchgrass
State-of-the-art Yield/Acre
Fleet Size Vehicle Efficiency
Fleet Size Average Vehicle Efficiency
Biomass Production
Total Biomass Production Residue Collection
Yield from Ag RD Ave Yield in Established Land
Overall Yield/Acre
Individual Plant Feedstock Demand
Delivered Feedstock Cost
Total Biomass Production
Feedstock Price
Total Residue Collected
Feedstock Price
Ag Forest Residue Collect
Feedstock Price
Feedstock Price
Feedstock Price
Demand for Feedstock
Increase In Ag Output
2
Agricultural Forest Residue Collection
Calculates the total Agricultural and Forest
Residues available at different feedstock prices
Feedstock Price
Total Biomass Production
Maximum Ag Yield Improvement 25 Ag Residue
Linear Annual Growth Rate 1
Ag Forest Residue Collection 1
3
Agricultural Forest Residue Collection
Calculates the total Agricultural and Forest
Residues available at different feedstock prices
Feedstock Price
Ag Forest Residue Collection 2
Total Biomass Production
Forest Residue Availability is fixed and is only
a function of offer price
Maximum Ag Yield Improvement 25 Ag Residue
Linear Annual Growth Rate 1
Forest Residue Collected (MM ton/yr)
Feedstock Price
4
Agricultural Forest Residue Collection
Calculates the total Agricultural and Forest
Residues available at different feedstock prices
Feedstock Price
Total Biomass Production
Forest Residue Availability is fixed and is only
a function of offer price
Ag Residue Availability is a function of offer
price with 1 linear growth rate up to 25 growth
from the 2005 quantity.
Maximum Ag Yield Improvement 25 Ag Residue
Linear Annual Growth Rate 1
Forest Residue Collected (MM ton/yr)
Ag Residue Collected (MM ton/yr)
Ag Forest Residue Collection 3
Feedstock Price
Feedstock Price
5
Actual STELLA Module Flowsheet
Agricultural Forest Residue Collection
Ag Forest Residue Collection 4
6
Land Use
Switchgrass Maturation Time
Calculates the amount of land that is being used
for switchgrass production (acres)
Land Established in SG Land Converting to SG
Land Reverting
Crop Lifetime Net SG Addition of Acres

• Two land types
• Prime
• Marginal

Land in Other Uses In Transition In Switchgrass
Land Use - 5
7
Land Use
Land Use - 6
Switchgrass Maturation Time
Calculates the amount of land that is being used
for switchgrass production (acres)
Land Established in SG Land Converting to SG
Land Reverting
Crop Lifetime is calculated as a function of the
economics of switchgrass compared to
non-switchgrass land use as well as current
switchgrass yields
Crop Lifetime Net SG Addition of Acres
Land in Other Uses In Transition In Switchgrass
Impact of SG economics on Lifetime
Revenue (/acre) ratio for established land
8
Land Use
Switchgrass Maturation Time
Calculates the amount of land that is being used
for switchgrass production (acres)
Land Established in SG Land Converting to SG
Land Reverting
Crop Lifetime Net SG Addition of Acres
Addition of SG acres is also a function of the
net revenue for switchgrass vs. other uses.
Land in Other Uses In Transition In Switchgrass
Land Use - 7
9
Nominal SG Crop Lifetime SG Maturation
Time Export Scenario Constant SG Yield Option
Land Allocation
Crop Lifetime Net addition of Switchgrass

• The outcomes from this module are
• Whether to plant land in switchgrass or other
  uses.
• Calculates the crop lifetime.
• Total Acres in Switchgrass

Acres in Switchgrass
Feedstock Price
Switchgrass Production (MM Acres)
Switchgrass Yield (ton/acre)
The land owner decides whether to plant acres in
switchgrass or other uses depending on the
revenue earned per acre per crop. /acre
Switchgrass vs. /acre in other uses
Land Allocation -1
10
Nominal SG Crop Lifetime SG Maturation
Time Constant SG Yield Option
Land Allocation
Land Allocation -2
Crop Lifetime Net addition of Switchgrass

• The outcomes from this module are
• Whether to plant land in switchgrass or other
  uses.
• Calculates the crop lifetime.
• Total Acres in Switchgrass

Acres in Switchgrass
Feedstock Price
Switchgrass Production (MM Acres)
Switchgrass Yield (ton/acre)
The expected revenue for land in switchgrass is a
product of the payment to the farmer (/ton) and
the yield (tons/acre)
11
Nominal SG Crop Lifetime SG Maturation
Time Constant SG Yield Option
Land Allocation
Crop Lifetime Net addition of Switchgrass

• The outcomes from this module are
• Whether to plant land in switchgrass or other
  uses.
• Calculates the crop lifetime.
• Total Acres in Switchgrass

Acres in Switchgrass
Feedstock Price
Switchgrass Production (MM Acres)
Switchgrass Yield (ton/acre)
The value of land in other uses is a function of
the demand for product. More land in switchgrass
will drive the price for product from land in
other uses higher due to land constraint issues.

Land Allocation -3
12
Actual STELLA Module Flowsheet
Land Allocation
Land Allocation -4
13
Agricultural RD and Yield
The Yield from RD is a function of the
Investment made into the RD program.
Ag RD Investment (MM/yr)
Switchgrass Yield from RD
RD Yield Growth is analogous to historical corn
yields exponential for a time period, then
slowing to a linear growth rate
BSM has a maximum effective Ag RD of 10-MM/yr.
Any amount over that will have no effect on RD
yields.
Fraction of Max YPA growth Obtained
Ag RD Investment (MM/yr)
Ag RD and Yield 5
Year
Ag Investment relative to Max
14
Agricultural RD and Yield
Ag RD and Yield 6
15
Biomass Production
Biomass Production
Ag Forest Production
Calculates the total Biomass Production for
Ethanol
Switchgrass Land Dynamics
Switchgrass Yield (ton/acre)
Total Switchgrass Acres
Calculates the overall switchgrass yield
(ton/acre)
Biomass Production to Industrial Capacity Module
Switchgrass Yield (ton/acre)
Biomass Production - 7
16
Biomass Production
Biomass Production
Ag Forest Production
Biomass Production - 8
Calculates the total Biomass Production for
Ethanol
Switchgrass Yield (ton/acre)
Switchgrass Land Dynamics
Total Switchgrass Acres
Calculates the overall switchgrass yield
(ton/acre)
Biomass Production to Industrial Capacity
Switchgrass Yield (ton/acre)
The total switchgrass production (volume basis)
is the sum of the production from land in
transition to switchgrass the production from
land established in switchgrass.
Production from land in transition is defined as
the product of acreage converting to SG and the
yield based on state of the art Ag research.
Production from established land is defined as
the product of mature SG acreage and the yield
based on actual SG production.
17
Biomass Production
Biomass Production
Ag Forest Production
Calculates the total Biomass Production for
Ethanol
Switchgrass Land Dynamics
Switchgrass Yield (ton/acre)
Total Switchgrass Acres
Calculates the overall switchgrass yield
(ton/acre)
Biomass Production to Industrial Capacity and
Tracking Government Spending Modules
Switchgrass Yield (ton/acre)
The overall YPA is the total tonnage produced
annually divided by the total acreage in
switchgrass.
Biomass Production - 9
18
Actual STELLA Module Flowsheet
Biomass Production
Biomass Production - 10
19
Feedstock Price
Number of Plants On-Line

• Feedstock Price is Adjusted based on
• Ratio of Max Feedstock Supply to Demand
• Ratio of Spot Inventory to Actual Demand
• Responsiveness of Price to Change (Gain)

Feedstock Demand
Feedstock Supply
Feedstock Price
Price Response to change (gain)
Max Mature Yield
Constant Feedstock Price Option
Initial Feedstock Price 20/bdt
Feedstock Price -1
20
Feedstock Price
Number of Plants On-Line
Feedstock Price -2
Feedstock Demand
Determine an impact on the Feedstock Price due to
the ratio Where Max Feedstock Demand is the
sum of the capacity of all plants under const,
starting up or online
Feedstock Production Max Feedstock Demand
Feedstock Supply
Feedstock Price
Price Response to change (gain)
Max Mature Yield
Constant Feedstock Price Option
Fractional Change in Feedstock Price
Initial Feedstock Price 20/bdt
Feedstock Production Max Feedstock Demand
21
Feedstock Price
Number of Plants On-Line
Determine an impact on the Feedstock Price due to
the ratio Where, Spot Inventory is the
difference in actual demand and production Actual
demand is the operating capacity (actual yield)
of online plants
Feedstock Demand
Spot Inventory Actual Feedstock Demand
Feedstock Supply
Feedstock Price
Price Response to change (gain)
Max Mature Yield
Constant Feedstock Price Option
Fractional Change in Feedstock Price
Initial Feedstock Price 20/bdt
Feedstock Price -3
Spot Inventory Actual Feedstock Demand
22
Feedstock Price
Number of Plants On-Line
Feedstock Price -4
Calculate the Change in Feedstock Price as
Feedstock Demand
Change in Feedstock Price Old Feedstock Price
x Spot Inventory Ratio Factor x Max Demand
Ratio Factor x Price Response to Change (0 to
2)
Feedstock Supply
Feedstock Price
Price Response to change (gain)
Max Mature Yield
Constant Feedstock Price Option
Initial Feedstock Price 20/bdt
23
Actual STELLA Module Flowsheet
Feedstock Price
Feedstock Price -5
24
Delivered Feedstock Cost
Feedstock Price
Individual plant feedstock capacity

• This module calculates the cost for feedstock at
  the plant gate.
• The plant gate feedstock cost is the largest
  operating cost for a conversion facility
• The minimum ethanol selling price (MESP)
  calculated from this cost is compared to gasoline
  and dry mill selling prices

Feedstock Cost
Yield (ton/acre)
Feedstock subsidy for Farmer Fraction of SG in
Surrounding land to plant Free Captive Feedstock
Option Free Feedstock Option for Demo Pioneer

• The delivered feedstock cost is calculated in
  three sections
• Feedstock Quantity in area of plant (distance
  from the plant)
• Calculating the transportation charge and any
  options, and
• Adding the feedstock price and including any
  subsidy for the grower

Delivered Feedstock Cost -6
25
Delivered Feedstock Cost
Feedstock Price
Individual plant feedstock capacity
This module calculates the cost for feedstock at
the plant gate.
Delivered Feedstock Cost -7
Feedstock Cost
The distance from the feedstock to the plant gate
is calculated by using the equation below Where
the plant size is in the numerator and the
denominator consists of the yield and the
fraction of the feedstock in the surrounding area
of the plant.
Yield (ton/acre)
Feedstock subsidy for Farmer Fraction of SG in
Surrounding land to plant Free Captive Feedstock
Option Free Feedstock Option for Demo Pioneer
26
Delivered Feedstock Cost
Feedstock Price
Individual plant feedstock capacity
This module calculates the cost for feedstock at
the plant gate.
Feedstock Cost
Yield (ton/acre)
Transport Cost (/ton-mile Winding Factor
Miles to Plant) Fixed Transport /ton
Feedstock subsidy for Farmer Fraction of SG in
Surrounding land to plant Free Captive Feedstock
Option Free Feedstock Option for Demo Pioneer
The user has an option to allow feedstock
quantities under 200,000 ton/yr to be free for a
demo plant. This quantity is assumed to be the
fiber that comes along with the corn and is
already accounted for in the price of the
delivered corn
Delivered Feedstock Cost -8
27
Delivered Feedstock Cost
Feedstock Price
Individual plant feedstock capacity
This module calculates the cost for feedstock at
the plant gate.
Delivered Feedstock Cost -9
Feedstock Cost
The delivered feedstock cost Transportation
cost The cost to the grower User inputted
feedstock subsidy
Yield (ton/acre)
Feedstock subsidy for Farmer Fraction of SG in
Surrounding land to plant Free Captive Feedstock
Option Free Feedstock Option for Demo Pioneer
The user has the option to make feedstock
quantities for demo and pioneer plants (lt
2-million tons/yr) free for the plant operator
28
Actual STELLA Module Flowsheet
Delivered Feedstock Cost
Delivered Feedstock Cost -10
29
Influx, Turnover and Retrofit Logic
Vehicle Influx Logic Time to Retirement
Retrofitting Logic
Retiring Total Fleet Size Fleet A B size

• This module calculates
• The influx of new vehicles,
• The time to retirement, and
• The retrofitting of fleet vehicles
• Each vehicle type is separated into three
  sub-fleets based on vehicle age.
• The time in each sub-fleet is 1/3 of each vehicle
  types lifetime (time to retirement).

Fleet Growth Rate () New Vehicle Distribution
Average miles/yr per vehicle Average Miles to
Retirement Accelerated Vehicle Turnover
Fraction of Fleet retrofitted/yr
User has option to choose between Baseline and
Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) Fleet
Assumptions
Influx, Turnover and Retrofit -1
30
Influx, Turnover and Retrofit Logic
Vehicle Influx Logic Time to Retirement
Retrofitting Logic
Retiring Total Fleet Size Fleet A B size

• This module calculates
• The influx of new vehicles,
• The time to retirement, and
• The retrofitting of fleet vehicles

Influx, Turnover and Retrofit -2
New Vehicle Influx  Vehicle Influx Logic
total Vehicle influx influx distribution
Type   Total Vehicle Influx influx for fleet
growth influx to replace retirement   Influx
for Fleet Growth Total Fleet Fleet Growth
Rate ()
Fleet Growth Rate () New Vehicle Distribution
Average miles/yr per vehicle Average Miles to
Retirement Accelerated Vehicle Turnover
Fraction of Fleet retrofitted/yr
31
Influx, Turnover and Retrofit Logic
Vehicle Influx Logic Time to Retirement
Retrofitting Logic
Retiring Total Fleet Size Fleet A B size

• This module calculates
• The influx of new vehicles,
• The time to retirement, and
• The retrofitting of fleet vehicles

Vehicle Turnover   The time to retirement for
vehicles average miles to retirement average
miles per vehicle per year.
Fleet Growth Rate () New Vehicle Distribution
Average miles/yr per vehicle Average Miles to
Retirement Accelerated Vehicle Turnover
Fraction of Fleet retrofitted/yr
There is an option to double the turnover rate,
thereby reducing the time to retirement by a
factor of two.
Influx, Turnover and Retrofit -3
32
Influx, Turnover and Retrofit Logic
Vehicle Influx Logic Time to Retirement
Retrofitting Logic
Retiring Total Fleet Size Fleet A B size

• This module calculates
• The influx of new vehicles,
• The time to retirement, and
• The retrofitting of fleet vehicles

Influx, Turnover and Retrofit -4
Vehicle Retrofitting   Retrofitting is the act
of modifying conventional gasoline vehicles to
become a flex-fuel vehicles
The fraction of fleet vehicles retrofitted per
year drives this module.
Fleet Growth Rate () New Vehicle Distribution
Average miles/yr per vehicle Average Miles to
Retirement Accelerated Vehicle Turnover
Fraction of Fleet retrofitted/yr
Vehicle in Fleets A B can be retrofitted
33
Actual STELLA Module Flowsheet
Influx, Turnover and Retrofit Logic
Influx, Turnover and Retrofit -5
34
Fleet Size and Vehicle Efficiency Tracking
Retiring Total Fleet Size Fleet A B size
Vehicle Influx Logic Time to Retirement
Retrofitting Logic
This module tracks the number of vehicles and the
efficiency of vehicles of each fuel type.
There is a complimentary module to calculate
the total fleet and both the average and
aggregate efficiency of each vehicle type
Fleet Size Average Vehicle Efficiency (mpg)
Efficiency of incoming vehicles (mpg)
Fleet Efficiencies
Fleet Volumes
Fleet Size Vehicle Efficiency -6
35
Fleet Size and Vehicle Efficiency Tracking
Fleet Size Vehicle Efficiency -7
36
Fuel Consumption Logic
To Plant Addition Logic Module
Fleet Size Average Vehicle Efficiency (mpg)

• This module calculates the potential ethanol
  demand for total, E85 and E10 vehicles
• The total demand is compared to the total current
  production in the Plant Addition Logic module to
  measure the attractiveness for investors to build
  additional plants
• There are also calculations for E85 and E10
  potential

Maximum Potential EtOH Consumption (MM-gal/yr)
Average miles/yr per vehicle
Fuel Consumption -8
37
Fuel Consumption Logic
Fuel Consumption -9
Fleet Size Average Vehicle Efficiency (mpg)

• This module calculates the potential ethanol
  demand for total, E85 and E10 vehicles
• The total demand is compared to the total current
  production in the Plant Addition Logic module to
  measure the attractiveness for investors to build
  additional plants

Maximum Potential EtOH Consumption (MM-gal/yr)
Average miles/yr per vehicle
The module on the right calculates the fraction
of the E85 and E10 markets filled by actual
ethanol production.
38
Actual STELLA Module Flowsheet
Fuel Consumption Logic
Fuel Consumption -10