REDUCTIONS IN THE INCIDENCE OF

1
REDUCTIONS IN THE INCIDENCE OF CARE NEED IN WEST
AND EAST GERMANY BETWEEN 1991 AND
2003 COMPRESSION-OF-MORBIDITY OR POLICY EFFECT?
Uta Ziegler Gabriele Doblhammer Max Planck
Institute for Demographic Research Tours,
23.07.2005
2
INTRODUCTION
1. population aging in Germany
2001 2050
inhabitants 82.4 Mio 75 Mio
60 24
37 80 3.9
12 2. Development of people in
need of care? 2001
2050 needy people 2.04 Mio
? 2.47 ? Quelle StBA (10.
koordinierte Bevölkerungsvorausberechnung,
mittlere Variante)
3
Data

• SOEP - SocioEconomic Panel
• started in 1984 in West Germany with
• 5921 households, 12290 surveyed people
• in 1990 East Germany was included with
• 2179 households, 4453 surveyed people
• Analysis starts in 1991

4
RESULTS
- 3912 people are included during analysis
time (1991-2003) - 44 males
(StBA 42 in 2000) - 27 East Germans
(StBA 18.3 in 2000) - 309 events
5
Data
Care Question Does someone in your
household need constant care due to old
age or illness? - if yes, with -
errands outside the house
- running the household
- preparing meals and drinks
- simple personal help (dressing, washing,
etc.) - difficult
personal help (getting in and out of
bed, bowel movement etc.)
6
Data

• the different samples in the SOEP

7
METHOD LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS
- event studied transition into care need of
people above age 60 - event-history model
applied - left truncated data no information
about health status before entry into panel -
definition of care help needed with simple
personal help and difficult personal help
8
RESULTS

• absolute risk of transition into care need per
• 1000-person-years

9
RESULTS
source SOEP (Note plt0.01
0.01plt0.05 0.05plt0.1
10
RESULTS

• Interaction between Region and Period

source SOEP
11
RESULTS

• Interaction between Sex and Period

source SOEP
12
RESULTS
Figure 2 Trends in the age standardized
incidence of care (per 1000 person years) for
German males between 1991/92 and 2002/03 (with
95 confidence intervalls)

source SOEP
13
RESULTS
Figure 2 Trends in the age standardized
incidence of care (per 1000 person years) for
German males between 1991/92 and 2002/03 (with
95 confidence intervalls)

source SOEP
14
IV. Conclusion - Longitudinal
- increase of care need with age - care
need incidence slightly higher for males -
in second period (1998-2003) lower transition
risk for West and East Germans - transition
risk decreases primarily for males between
the years 1994/95 and 1995/96
15
V. CONCLUSION
compression of morbidity or policy effect?
16
www.demogr.mpg.de