REVOLUTION: WHY THEN AND NOT NOW?

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REVOLUTIONWHY THEN AND NOT NOW?
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13. DYNAMICS OF POLITICAL TRANSFORMATION

• Categories for Analysis
• Oligarchic Rule and Top-Down Reform
• (1880s-1920s)
• Populism and Dictatorship (1930s-1970s)
• The Revolutionary Path (1950s-1980s)
• An Expansion of Democracy (1980s-Present)
• The Pulse of Democratic Change

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WHAT IS A REVOLUTION?

• an extralegal seizure of political power, by the
  use or threat of force, for the purpose of
  bringing about structural change in the
  distribution of political, social, or economic
  power
• not the same as routine barracks revolts or
  golpes de estado

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WHY THEN (1950s-70s)?

• Authoritarian regimes
• Personalist, corrupt
• Military repression
• No real elections
• Socioeconomic inequality
• Communication and awareness
• Cityward migration, social mobilization
• Marxist ideology
• Call for revolution
• Soviet Chinese support
• Example of Cuba (1959)

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AND NOW? (1980s-2000s)

• Political democracy
• Dissent through elections
• Opposition victories
• Emergence of new left
• Socioeconomic development
• Middle-class aspirations conservative values
• Prosperity (of sorts) since 2004
• Liberal ideology
• Rejection of Marxism
• End of history
• Example of Cuba (1990s-present)

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THE RISE OF THE NEW LEFT WHY?

• Economiclack of growth (through 2003), poverty
  and inequality, frustration with Washington
  Consensus
• Politicalweakness of representative
  institutions, inattention to poor, persistence of
  corruption possibility of winning elections
• Internationalwar in Iraq, opposition to Bush
  policies and growing distaste for American
  society

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THE NEW LEFT WHERE?

• South America
• Venezuela
• Brazil
• Argentina
• Bolivia
• Ecuador
• Paraguay
• Peru
• Uruguay
• Central America
• Honduras
• Nicaragua
• El Salvador
• Near-Miss
• Mexico

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THE NEW LEFT GOALS

• Domesticwinning power, rearranging electoral
  alignments overturning status quo, changing
  policy direction, promoting social justice
• Hemisphericgaining support throughout Latin
  America, reducing U.S. hegemony
• Globalchallenging international order, forging
  alliances with developing world and non-aligned
  nations

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CONSEQUENCES

• Democracy broad ideological spectrum, from
  left to right
• Prosperity mixed economies rejection of
  Washington Consensus
• Ideology diversity rather than unity
• Alliances suspicion of U.S. leadership and
  rules of the game

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The End.