Strategies for a sustainable,

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Strategies for a sustainable, CO2 neutral
energy economy Daniel M. Kammen Director,
Renewable and Appropriate Energy
Laboratory Energy and Resources Group Goldman
School of Public Policy University of California,
Berkeley Solar to Fuel Future Challenges and
Solutions Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory,
March 28, 2005
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Mobilizing for a Low-Carbon Economy
The time-scale of the Greenhouse problem (and
opportunity) is 5 decades. Doubling the
pre-industrial CO2 level in the atmosphere is
roughly the boundary between altered and unsafe
without action this be crossed within roughly
50-75 years. (This is not a prescription to wait,
but a call for dramatic action now.) Unconvention
al oil and gas, and coal, are abundant. With 15
times or more of these resources than oil, action
on climate wont be initiated significantly by
resource depletion (i.e. I disagree with
Hubberts Peak) A portfolio approach is
essential. The most basic lesson of our energy
past is that diversity is our greatest ally (and
the one we abandon most rapidly in a crisis).
Basic research and policy analysis leading to
action are both needed to open new opportunities
for a low-carbon economy. Bottom line Despite
some important successes, a seed change is needed

• http//www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/total.ht
  mlIntlCarbon

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World Annual Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the
Consumption of Fossil Fuels, 1980-2000
Climate-carbon connection 2.1 Gt(C) 1 ppm(v)

• http//www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/total.ht
  mlIntlCarbon

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Modeled Response to Natural Anthropogenic
Climate Forcings
GCM Natural forcings only GCM human
natural forcings
Global Circulation Model (GCM) results
summarized in IPCC 2001
Philosophical changes require motivation Yet we
have both local and global smoking guns
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The slice heuristic
Gt(C)/yr
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Expected path (BAU)
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Doubled CO2 target
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Ecological CO2 target
0
2000
2050
2100
Socolow and Pacala (2004)
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15 slices
50 year pathways to evolve 1.0
Gt(C)/yr carbon offsets
Gt(C)/yr
18
12
6
0
2000
2050
2100
Socolow and Pacala (2004)
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A. Capturing SolarEnergy in space(Peter Glaser
et al., 1970s)
A View of our energy system as unlikely to make
sufficient progress toward a low-carbon future
without revolutions

• B. Global Superconducting
• Transmission Grid
• (Buckminster Fuller,
• 1970s)

Hoffert et al. (2003)
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Between you and me, I am rather dismayed by the
responses. We have done too little to move
beyond solving the (easy) boundary value
problems which are the ones we want to hear
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Average in Berkeley
Residential Electricity Use (kWh/capita, 1960 -
2000)
Energy Star Home
Average Dane
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• Conclusions
• Moderate path
• 1.5 annual improvement
• Emissions growth halted at a savings
• B) Aggressive path
• 2.9 annual improvement
• Meet Kyoto levels by efficiency alone
  facilitate clean energy market development

Energy Efficiency Futures
Source Kammen Ling, in press
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Annual Rate of Change in Energy/GDP for the
United States
2
- 2.7
- 3.4
Average - 0.7
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
IEA data
EIA data
-5
1989
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
-6
Rosenfeld, CEC, LBL
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Source T. J. Berniard, NREL
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World PV Module Shipments (Megawatts)(25 annual
growth for 10 years)
2003 Annual growth 34 50 in 2004 (to
1200 MW) Today global PV production is
equivalent (MW) to one large fossil-fuel power
plant/year
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A useful (?) heuristic, or an example of stagnant
thinking
6 Boxes at 3.3 TW Each 20 TWe
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Solar Across Scales Moscone Center 675,000 W
Kammen home 2400 W
Kenyan PV market Average system 18W
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Performance Results for a-Si PV Modules
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Learning Curve for PV Modules (crystalline
silicon)
Today PV electricity costs about 0.20 -
0.25/kWh, Which can be compared with 0.32/kWh
PGE charges for TOU customers during peak time
(noon-6pm)
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(No Transcript)
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Biomass in Sub Saharan Africa(500 million
tons/yr)

• Biomass accounts for
• 70 of total energy use
• 90 of household use
• Compared with 3 for OECD countries
• Of harvested wood
• 75 used for cooking
• 15 used to make charcoal
• Charcoal use is
• Growing faster than woodfuel
• Mainly commercial urban fuel
• Attributed main blame for unsustainable forest
  use

Bailis, Ezzati and Kammen (2005)
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World Wind Electricity Capacity (Megawatts)(20
annual growth for over a decade!)
Megawatts
Global leaders Germany, Denmark, Spain, US, UK,
China, India (gt 85 of global market) US was a
global leader, today we are a player, but not the
leader.
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State Renewables Portfolio Standards and Mandates
16 States
NY 25 by 2020
11/2/04
CA 20 by 2017
HI 20 by 2020

• Renewable energy goals established in Illinois
  and Minnesota
• RPS being considered in many other states (e.g.,
  VT, WA) potentially revised in others (ME, PA,
  WI) and national RPS is being discussed (by some)

R. Wiser, LBL
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• Study reviews
• 13 studies of
• job creation
• Message
• energy
• efficiency and
• renewables
• create large
• numbers of
• high quality
• jobs

Report available at
http//socrates.berkeley.edu/rael/papers.html
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New SUV Models Coming Soon
The Kenworth Grand Dominator - Extra high
roof/cathedral ceilings - Power expandable
sides - Full lavatory
The Peterbuilt Crusader All Sport Denali The
worlds first two story high performance sport
brute Crusader-E Edition includes elevator
Source http//poseur.4x4.org/futuresuv.html
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Greenhouse ComparisonFCVs, ICEs and Hybrid
Vehicles
Source Bevilacqua-Knight, 2001
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Carbon-Free Power by 2050(Berry and Lamont)

• U.S. Population 400 million people (up 40)
• Electricity Use 3 kWe/capita (up 37)
• Wind 300,000 5 MW Turbines (All the wind-
• power available from the Dakotas)
• Solar PV 150 million 25 kW roofs (Every roof top
  
• in the United States)
• Biomass Not included, but could be gt 10 of
  total
• Advanced Fission 300 1 GWe nuclear plants (50
  efficient)
• 100 H2 Vehicles 80 mpg average for cars and
  SUVs 3
  million H2 trucks, 5000 LH2 airliners

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So, What are We Doing About All This?
Well, .
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Federal RD Investments, 1955 - 2004
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Private Sector RD Investment in Health and Energy
Kammen qnd Nemet, 2005
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Federal RD Policy Can be Very Effective(All
sectors of the U. S. Economy)
Patents Granted (thousands)
RD Spending (billions)
Margolis and Kammen (1999)
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The Same Funding-Patent Correlation But Now for
Energy Only
Patents Granted (thousands)
RD Spending (billions)
Margolis and Kammen (1999)
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Kammen and Nemet (2005) in review
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Some Critical Needs for Research

• Low cost photovoltaics (lt 1/Watt)
• Drivers funding technology diversity markets
• Low cost energy storage
• H2, flywheels, compressed air, pumped hydro,
• Biomass gassification across scales of
  application
• Power electronics for mini-grids, distributed
  systems
• Carbon sequestration
• Nano energy and wireless systems to initiate a
  second
• wave of energy efficiency increases
• Understanding and action on the economics of
  carbon
• (and pollutants generally)

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Opportunities for Policy Action

• Expand state renewable energy portfolio
  standards
• Support Solar Home bills (build clean energy
  markets)
• renewable energy/energy efficient mortgages
• Accelerate the CA Renewable Energy Portfolio
  Standard
• Enact carbon cap trade work with western
  states,
• northeast US (RGGI), UK
• Get serious about Kyoto and a carbon tax

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To Address Climate Change, we must utilize
renewable energy
Atmospheric CO2 concentration in 1850 265
ppm Atmospheric CO2 concentration in 2000 370 ppm
Advanced coal technologies
kg (carbon)/kWh of Electricity
Carbon/kWh for atmospheric stabilization at 450,
550 ppm
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To Address Climate Change, we must utilize
renewable energy
Atmospheric CO2 concentration in 1850 265
ppm Atmospheric CO2 concentration in 2000 370 ppm
Advanced coal technologies
kg (carbon)/kWh of Electricity
Carbon/kWh for atmospheric stabilization at 450,
550 ppm
? -1/yr
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Potential 1 Gt Carbon Industries in 2050 (p.1 of
2) View of energy system as available solutions
(Socolow Pacala, 2004)
Mitigation Measure 1 Gt(C)/yr Global Business Risk, Impact
Coal plant CO2 stored, not vented 700 1GW plants CO2 leakage
Nuclear displaces average plant 1500 1 GW plants (5 x current) Nuclear proliferation and terrorism, nuclear waste
Wind displaces average plant 150 x current NIMBY, new transmission needed
Solar PV displaces average plant 2000 x current 5x106 ha Minimal impact, cost
Hydrogen fuel 1 billion H2 cars (CO2-emission-free H2) displace 1 billion 30 mpg gasoline/diesel H2 infrastructure cost, H2 storage
Efficiency, overall 8 of 2050 expected fossil C extraction Minimal
Efficiency, vehicles only 2 billion gasoline and diesel cars at 60 mpg instead of 30 mpg (or, at 30 mpg, going 6,000 rather than 12,000 miles per year). Lifestyle (car size and power) Urban design
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Achieving stabilization, slice by slice (p.2 of 2)
Mitigation Measure 1 Gt(C)/yr Global Business Risk, Impact
Geological seqn 3500 Sleipners, at 1 Mt( CO2)/year Global and local leakage
Land sink Now 1.5 Gt(C)/yr, sink becomes 2.0 Gt(C)/yr, rather than 1.0 Gt(C)/yr Current estimate for 2050 sink is several times more uncertain
Biomass fuels from plantations 100x106 ha, growing _at_ 10 t(C)/ha-yr Biodiversity, competing land use (200x106 ha US agricultural area)
Storage in new forest 500x106 ha, growing _at_ 2 t(C)/ha-yr Biodiversity, competing land use