Forecasting FTES Using a Yield Projection Model

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Forecasting FTES Using a Yield Projection Model
Sam Ballard, Research Analyst Daniel Miramontez,
Research Analyst San Diego Community College
District

• Presented at the 2009 RP/CISOA Conference
• Tahoe City, CA April 27, 2009

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San Diego Community College District
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Enrollment

• FTES for 2007-08 41,925
• College Total 31,938
• Continuing Education Total 9,987
• Number of sections offered at colleges in 2007-08
  11,132
• Duplicated Headcount 397,615
• 3.6 increase in Fall 2008 growth

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Office of Institutional Research Planning
Organizational Chart
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Office of Institutional Research Planning Scope
of Work

• Research and Information for
• Program and services
• Program review reports (i.e., EOPS, TRIO, etc.)
• External accrediting agencies
• Accreditation self-study reports for WASC/ACCJC
• Accountability
• ARCC report
• Planning and decision-making process
• Productivity and projection reports (i.e. FTES)

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FTES Yield Projection Model

• Yield Model
• Adjusts to the number of sections being offered
  in the current term
• Takes the previous yields multiplied by the
  current sections being offered

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Purpose

• Primary function of the FTES Yield Projection
  Model
• Manage growth and enrollment
• establish growth targets
• Budget development
• budget guidelines
• Who uses the information
• Chancellor
• College Presidents
• Vice Chancellors
• Instruction, Student Services and Business
  Services
• FTES Yield Projection Model Pilot Testing
• Last 3 years (06 07, 07 08, 08
  09)

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Method

• Start with FTES file from comparable term from
  previous year
• Make exclusions
• i.e. cancelled sections, non-residents
• Total by different variables
• i.e. accounting method, subject, course number
• Calculate number of sections per course
• i.e. 27 sections of PSYC 101

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Method Cont.

• Calculate FTES for the total number of sections
• 100.35 FTES for 27 sections
• Calculate yield by dividing total FTES by the
  number of sections
• i.e. 100.35/27 3.72 FTES per section

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Method Cont.

• Now get file with current sections offered
• Aggregate the number of sections offered
• Current term is offering 20 sections of PSYC 101
• Match prior years yields to current term
• Unique ID (PSYC101)
• Multiply number of current sections by previous
  years yield
• i.e. 20 sections 3.72 yield 74.4 FTES

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Method Cont.

• Adjustments
• Change in number of sections
• CT ((CT-PT)/PT)
• Multiply adjusted sections by .99
• Increase Yields
• Yield can be adjusted according to current trends
• yield 0.10

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Results

• In the past three years we projected spring
  during fall
• Spring 2006 to 2007
• The projection was off by 243 FTES
• -1.81 error
• Spring 2007 to 2008
• The projection was off by 654 FTES
• -4.78 error

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Results Cont.

• Spring 2008 to 2009
• The projection was off by 605 FTES
• -4.44 error
• Data as of 4/8/09

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Discussion

• Limitations
• Can only be calculated when the schedule is ready
• New courses are given a marginal mean
• Only used for three years
• Possible Improvements
• Add factors
• unemployment rate
• fill rates
• physical improvements
• increase from term

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Worksheet Exercise!
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Discussion Questions

• What do you see as other limitations of this
  model?
• What are other ways to improve this model?
• How does this model compare to other projection
  models?