AMPO Travel Modeling Work Group

1
AMPO Travel Modeling Work Group November 5, 2010
Update on Census Info and Planning
Products/ Getting Ready for TAZ Delineation

• Topics
• Boundaries
• 3-year CTPP/ACS
• 5-year CTPP
• TAZs/TADs
• PUMS/PUMAS

Ed Christopher Resource Center Planning
Team Federal Highway Administration 4749 Lincoln
Mall Dr. Rm 600 Matteson, IL 60443 708-283-3534 e
dc_at_EdtheFed.com
2
http//www.electiondataservices.com
2
3
Boundaries -- Some Background
Urban Areas Urbanized Areas (50,000) circa
1950 Urban Clusters (2,500 to 49,999) circa 2000
http//rtc.ruralinstitute.umt.edu/
3
4
Transportation Perspective
(Census Defined) Urbanized Area (UZA) Federal-Aid
(Adjusted) Urbanized Area (FAUA) Metropolitan
Planning Area (MPA) Non-Attainment Area
http//www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/census/faqa2cdt.h
tm
4
5
Some Implications for Transportation

• New / Retired MPOs
• New / Retired TMAs
• Expanded MPOs TMA
• Changed Roadway Classifications
• Data Reporting and reports
• Funding and Financial Issues
• Outdoor Advertising

Hinges on Transportation Bill
http//www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/census/faqa2cdt.h
tm
5
6
Whats an MPO? A TMA?
NARC - Status Quo AASHTO -Somewhat Vague FHWA -
Internal House - TI Committee, HR ____ Senate -
100K - Threshold Grandfathering 200K - Project
Selection Authority 1 Million Special Funding
and Requirements
http//www.ampo.org/assets/685_finalampopdfovervie
wappro.pdf
6
7
Timing
2009 SAFETEA-LU expired New Bill Expected (2011)
??? 2010 Fed Register-Comments on UA
Criteria 2012 New UAs Released (Springtime)
Register Notice on Proposed Criteria for Urban
Area Boundaries (August 24, 2010) http//edocket.a
ccess.gpo.gov/2010/pdf/2010-20808.pdf http//edock
et.access.gpo.gov/2010/2010-20808.htm
7
8
Highlights of Federal Register Notice
o Use of Tracts as Analysis Unit (Initial
Phase) o Reducing Jumps from 2.5 miles to 1.5 o
Use of a National Land Cover Data Base o Changing
Airport threshold from 10K to 2,500
enplanements o Eliminating the Central Place
Concept o Establishing Minimum pop living outside
of group quarters o Splitting Large Areas o
Naming Criteria
Comments due November 22, 2010
9
ACS Data Releases
10
And then the CTPP
Census Transportation Planning Products (CTPP)
Program The CTPP is an umbrella program of
Census related data products, custom tabulations,
training, technical assistance, and research for
the transportation community
11
CTPP History
http//www.trbcensus.com/articles/ctpphistory.pdf
12
CTPP then and Now
CTPPackage Prior to ACS
CTPProducts Program Post ACS

• The CTPP program now includes
• Many more Data products
• Training and technical assistance
• On-call user support
• Training classes and web seminars
• Research

Federal Technical Advisory Group TRB Subcommittee
-- List Serve (800 strong) Quarterly Newsletter
-- Outreach -- Several Websites
12
13
A Lot is Coming at Us
14
3-year CTPP Data Product
CTPP 3-Year September 2010 Oct/Nov 2010 2006,
2007, 2008 20,000 Pop. Areas (County, Place,
PUMAs) Actual Flows
_______________
XXVXX
http//trbcensus.com/products
15
The 3-year Product Design
http//ctpp.transportation.org/Documents/CTPP_cust
om_tabulations_based_on_3yracs2006_2008.xls
16
The 3-year Product
County to County Flows are on the street
ftp//ftp.camsys.com/temp/outgoing/CTPP/New20CTPP
20ACS/
17
3-year CTPP Product Summary
Highlights Low Lights
Based on CTPP2000 Tables Many NEW Univariate Tables More Age Tables Streamlined Race Tables More HH and HH Lifecycle Tables More English Proficiency Tables Way more Flows Tables Incomplete Coverage Rounded Reduced Number of Crosstabs with Mode -- Travel time -- Household income -- Vehicle availability -- Age -- Time leaving home Tables will have Suppression -- Means based on 3 values -- 3 records in Flow MOEs
18
Some Issues to be aware of
3-year ACS (2006, 2007, 2008)
What year is the data? Period Estimate
brought forward to year of release What Data
to use? Reliability vs. Currency
19
Significance Testing--Why do it?
MOE, MOE, MOE
Source CTPP Data Profiles http//ctpp.transporta
tion.org/Pages/overview.aspx
http//www.edthefed.com/presentations/significance
20testing.ppt
20
Working with ACS
A Compass for Understanding And Using ACS Data
l Set of user-specific handbooks l Train-the
trainer materials l E-learning ACS Tutorial l
Annotated Presentations
http//www.census.gov/acs/www/UseData/Compass/comp
ass_series.html
21
What data should I use?
Travel Times for the 6-counties in NE Illinois
1. To compare with 1970, 80, 90 and 2000 Travel
Times? 2. To compare with my town of 52,000
people? 3. To validate my 2008 vintage travel
demand model?
22
Finally A word about Collapsing
Collapsing
23
CTPP products collapsing schema
24
And remember I noted Incomplete Coverage?
NE Illinois (2009 3-year ACS)
Gray Less than 20K people and No data
X
Wheres the beef Data? It Looks Like Swiss
Cheese
25
5-year CTPP Data Product
New Geography
Requires implementation of new disclosure
avoidance (masking) techniques
26
The are DRB rules

• Cell Means and aggregates require 3 unweighted
  records

• For Pt 3 Flow Tables 3 unweighted
  records for each table, each cell, with the
  exception of the 1-way Means of Trans. table
• 3 unweighted records for the marginal's in any
  cross-tabulation with Means of Trans.

27
5-year CTPP Data Product
NCHRP 08-79 (550K) Producing Transportation
Data Products from the ACS that Comply With
Disclosure Rules
NCHRP is funded by State DOTs SPR Project
schedule Jan 2010-July 2011 Need results to be
applied to 2006-2010 ACS for the 5-year CTPP
(delivery to software vendor in summer
2012) Westat, Tom Krenzke, PI
28
NEW TAZs Traffic Analysis Zones

• Defined by MPOs and State DOTS
• Software Deployed (Spring 2011)
• Developed in Summer 2011
• TAZs will nest with TADs
• GIS equivalency process
• Funded under Consolidated Purchase

TAZ Traffic Analysis Zone Traditional Size
TAD Traffic Analysis District 20,000 population
http//download.ctpp.transportation.org/TAZ_Rules/
TAZ20Delineation20Business20Rules_CTPP20Final.
pdf
29
What is an equivalency process?
Take the map at the right and using the states
boundaries make 9 contiguous regions
Its the same for TAZs Blocks cluster into TAZs
30
A real world example

• Census Blocks will make up TAZs
• TAZs will nest with TADs
• TADs will nest in Counties
• Nesting with Tracts is optional

31
TAZ Size
CB recommends 600 persons corresponds to the
minimum threshold for 2010 Census Block
Groups Threshold is guideline not a
requirement TAZs may be defined with fewer than
600 residents or workers Data reliability and
availability improves as population size increases
Bigger is Better
32
The Schedule
Nov 2010 - Agencies verify contact names
(AASHTO Website) Jan 2011 - Final delivery of
Software by Caliper Feb 2011 - Web-based training
Feb 25 and Feb 28 March through April 2011
- Delivery of software and Census 2010 data and
geographic files (Rolling basis) 3- Months to
delineate TAZ/TADs June through July 2011 -
Files returned to CB Geography
33
Creating TAZs
Florida Standard Urban Transportation Model
Structure
White Paper on Recommended Approach to
Delineating TAZ
http//www.fsutmsonline.net/images/uploads/reports
/FDOT_TAZ_White_Paper.pdf
http//www.fsutmsonline.net/images/uploads/mtf-fil
es/PPT_12_TAZ20White20Paper_NOV07_FINAL_CS_Keli_
Wu.ppt
34
5-year Geography and Flows

• Asymmetrical Flows
• Small Areas defined by MPOs in MPO areas and
  States Elsewhere
• Tracts are Defaults for Small Areas
• Default TADs under discussion

35
PUMAs? -- What are they?
Public Use Microdata Sample
PUMS data is based on individual census records
and is available only at large geographic areas.
Think of the PUMS dataset as the raw,
disaggregate census sample data, at a large
enough geographic level necessary to protect the
confidentiality of the census respondent.
Standard Tabs
ACS Sample
PUMS Records
PUMAs are the zones used from PUMS data
36
Why are PUMAs Important?
NE Illinois (2008 pop estimate)

• Lets Look at Annual Data
• Annual Data
• 65K
• Note the areas in gray
• We call this Swiss Cheese

37
Why are PUMAs Important?
NE Illinois (PUMAs)

• Tabulation Area for ACS
• Represent 100K
• Complete Coverage
• Smaller than Counties
• NO Swiss Cheese

38
How many PUMAs should this area have?
City of Chicago 2000 PUMAs

• Why are PUMAs Important?
• - Defines areas for analysis
• - Tabulation Area for ACS
• - Custom Tabulation

• Who Defines Them?
• - The Community
• - Led by State Data Center

• When are They Defined?
• - Summer 2011
• - Criteria out Spring 2010

2,896,016 (2000 Pop)
http//www.census.gov/geo/www/maps/puma5pct.htm
39
PUMA Resources
IPUMS maintains the PUMS data back to the 1850
census and has and online table generator
Minnesota Population Center
http//usa.ipums.org/usa/
CTPP Webinar on IPUMS http//ctpp.transportation.o
rg/Pages/webinardirectory.aspx
Compass Handbook by Census Bureau http//www.censu
s.gov/acs/www/Downloads/handbooks/ACSPUMS.pdf
40
What else?
41
5 year regular ACS
Fed Register Notice on ACS 5-Year Data Product
Plans
http//edocket.access.gpo.gov/2010/pdf/2010-23373.
pdf http//edocket.access.gpo.gov/2010/2010-2337
3.htm

Data due out in December 2010 05, 06, 07. 08,
09 Data Years
Block Groups not on FactFinder and loaded with
suppression
42
Census Bureau E-Tutorial and ACS
http//www.census.gov/acs/www/guidance_for_data_us
ers/e_tutorial/
43
Just in
American FactFinder to get facelift in January
Take the Advance Tour
http//factfinder.census.gov/home/saff/tour.html
43
44
And now for the aftermath
45
To Learn more about the CTPP
http//www.dot.gov/ctpp http//www.TRBcensus.com h
ttp//ctpp.transportation.org
Join the CTPP List Serve http//www.trbcensus.com/
maillist.html
45