Wall chart for Latin American Countries

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Wall chart for Latin American Countries

• Mauricio Holz
• UN-CELADE/ECLAC

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Will be the best Wall chart in the history of
Wall charts!(The first Wall chart in human
history)Altamira cave, prehistoric Anonymous man
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Structure

• Two kinds of information
• Demographic and Economic measures for 30 Latin
  American and Caribbean Countries
• Comparison between NTA Latin American Countries
  and other NTA regions using National Transfers
  Accounts.

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Demographic and economic measures for 30 Latin
American and Caribbean Countries

• Life Expectancy, TFR, percentage of population
  65 and below 15, in 2010 and 2040
• Year in which old consumption is higher relative
  to young consumption.
• Intergenerational (Tax) Reallocation Rate for
  young dependency group and for old dependency
  group.
• Five statistics of the first Demographic
  Dividend.
• Economic dependency measures by social sectors.

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Percentage of population 65.2010 and 2040
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Year in which old consumption is higher compare
to young consumption.

• Using support ratios we calculated the year in
  which 65 relative effective consumers are higher
  than lt15 relative effective consumers for 30 LAC

2006
2049
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Intergenerational (Tax) Reallocation Rate

• Is the sum of the LCD of the dependency age group
  of young people as fraction of GDP, plus the LCD
  of the dependency age group of old people as a
  fraction of GDP

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ITR and AgeingCross sectional data
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ITR and AgeingCross sectional data

• Cross sectional data seems to replicate the
  demographic dividend pattern of one country.
• A sign of Heterogeneity in the ageing process
  between LAC. (Different stages in the process)
• How much of this cross sectional data can be
  explained by demographic factors and by the LCD
  per-capita ages profiles?
• How this graph will change when we include the
  NTA data for other Latin American countries.
  Maybe not much?
• Is there some causality between the ageing
  process and the per-capita age profiles of LCD?

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Statistics of the first demographic dividend

• Min The lowest value of the support ratio during
  the demographic dividend.
• Year of Min The year when the SR reach is lowest
  value. Represent the starting point of the first
  demographic dividend.
• Max The highest value of the support ratio
  during the demographic dividend.
• Year of Max The year when the SR reach is
  highest value. Represent the ending point of the
  first demographic dividend.
• Duration of the demographic bond The number of
  years between the lowest value and the highest
  value.

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Economic dependency measure by social sectors,
Health (Miller, Mason and Holz).
Country Aggregate Spending ( GDP) Benefit Generosity Ratio ( of GDP per working-age adult) Dependency Ratio ( of working-age population)
Cuba 7.4 66 11
Colombia 6.2 62 10
Costa Rica 5.9 83 7
Argentina 4.5 32 14
Nicaragua 3.4 33 10
Uruguay 3.4 20 17
Brazil 3.1 28 11
Mexico 3.0 35 9
Chile 2.8 31 9
Peru 1.5 15 10
Median, Latin America 3.4 34 10
Mean, Latin America 4.1 38 11
Mean, OECD 6.9 46 15
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Comparison between NTA Latin American Countries
and other NTA regions using NTA data.

• Support Ratio
• Old consumption (65) relative to young (lt15)
  consumption
• Old consumption (LCD age group) relative to young
  consumption (LCD age group)
• Young age group of dependency
• Old age group of dependency

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Comparison between NTA Latin American Countries
and other NTA regions using NTA data.

• Distribution of public transfers in young age
  dependent group between
• Education
• Health
• Pensions
• Other in Kind

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Comparison between NTA Latin American Countries
and other NTA regions using NTA data.

• Distribution of public transfers in old age
  dependent group between
• Education
• Health
• Pensions
• Other in Kind

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Comparison between NTA Latin American Countries
and other NTA regions using NTA data.

• Intergenerational Reallocation Rate for young
  dependents, disaggregated in

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Comparison between NTA Latin American Countries
and other NTA regions using NTA data.

• Intergenerational Reallocation Rate for old
  dependents, disaggregated in

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Average Life Cycle Deficit for Latin American
Countries
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Average Finance of Consumption for LAC
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Average Intergenerational Reallocation Rate
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WORK IN PROGRESS!!!!
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