School-to-work Transitions in a Liberal Economy

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School-to-work Transitions in a Liberal Economy

• Alison Wolf
• Kings College London

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The Modern Economy

• Free Trade
• Free Movement in some regions (notably most of
  the EU), though heavy restrictions in global
  context
• Non-directed labour
• Minimal industrial policy
• Shift, in developed world, from fast growth in
  class 1 and 2 occupations to slow growth/steady
  state
• Decline in skilled manual trades move to the
  hourglass economy

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The modern education system

• Increased average length completion of upper
  secondary normal in all developed countries
• Rapid rise in higher education numbers
• Delayed specialisation
• High returns to formal qualifications, absolutely
  and relatively
• Wide variations in nature and status of
  apprenticeship. Full-time vocational pathways
  generally common and rarely high-status pre-18

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University enrolments at either end of the
twentieth century
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Modern labour markets

• European countries and Japan marked by dual
  labour markets core of full-time jobs with
  security and high benefits and periphery of
  low-security, low-paid, short-term jobs
• North America more fluid labour market, much
  less job security, high levels of churn, greater
  movement in numbers of jobs year on year

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The specific case of the UK

• Very low apprenticeship numbers for under-18s
  apprenticeship almost destroyed in 1980s, very
  partial return to health in 2000s
• Very high levels of regional inequality
• General stability in upper secondary academic
  route and constant reform of upper secondary
  vocational route
• Open access for EU accession state nationals as
  well as longer-standing EU members

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Employers view of where the formally qualified
are to be found 1950
Graduates
Low ability
High ability
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Employers view of where the formally qualified
are to be found 2000
Graduates
Low ability
High ability
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Employers perceptions of the labour market 2050?
Graduates
Low quality
High quality
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Overall figures conceal huge variations

• Between and within regions and counties or cities

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August 201216-24 years claiming
Northumberland County Durham Caerphilly Derry Sandwell Mid Suffolk Wiltshire South Oxfordshire 8.4 8.2 10 13 12.1 4.7 3.7 2.2
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16-24 claiming London area 8.12
Thurrock 6.2
Ashford 5.2
Reigate 3.1
Lewisham 7.5
Brent 6.5
Newham 7.5
Camden 3
Greenwich 6.4
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Returns to vocational awards

• Poor to specific occupational awards obtained in
  fulltime training/education
• Middling to quasi-vocational (eg BTEC)
• Good to proper apprenticeships - reflects
  return to work experience, demonstrated
  persistence as much as to specific skills
• Change in trade/occupation the rule rather than
  the exception

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The challenge

• Improve apprenticeships
• Increase value of FT-based vocational
• Recognise reality of modern labour market need
  to retrain/move between sectors
• Address disappearance of youth labour market
  can decline be reversed?