Determinants of Poverty Depth among Households in Rural and Urban Nigeria

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Determinants of Poverty Depth among Households in
Rural and Urban Nigeria

• Awopeju Samson O. (Corvinus UniversityUniBonn/
  Regional Support Consultant UNCCD)
• Prof. Imre Ferto (Corvinus University, Budapest,
  Hungary)
• Presentation at the EADI 14th GENERAL CONFERENCE,
  JUNE, BONN, 2014.

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OUTLINE

• Introduction
• Objective.
• Methodology-study area, data sources, analytical
  methods.
• Results and Discussions
• Conclusions

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INTRODUCTION

• An estimated 1.2 billion people are still living
  below 1.25 a day in developing countries-
  (World-Bank press release 2013).
• Sub Saharan Africa as a continent has a tragic
  record of highest incidence of poverty ,
  currently at 48 percent of its population. In
  1991 poverty was 58 percent. (World-Bank press
  release 2013).
• Some Good News
• The number of people living on less than 1.25
  per day has declined dramatically in the past
  three decades.
• From half the citizens in the developing world in
  1981 to 21 percent in 2010 despite a 59 percent
  increase in the developing world population.
  (World-Bank press release 2013).

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BUT???

• Not every developing nations has witnessed steady
  decrease in poverty. NIGERIA is a good example.

• PARADOX !
• A nation blessed with major economic resources
  that drive global economy Petroleum, tin,
  columbite, iron ore, coal, limestone, lead, zinc,
  natural gas and forests and good Agricultural
  lands).
• Currently largest economy in Africa

Source Nigeria's National Bureau of Statistics
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OBJECTIVE

• Central focus examine the determinants of
  poverty status among households in Nigeria both
  at the national and sectorial level employing
  household socio-economic and regional
  characteristics.
• Specifically the study
• Estimated incidences, depth and severity of
  poverty among Nigerians at the national, rural
  and urban regions.
• Assessed the determinants of poverty depth among
  households in Nigeria at the national level.
• Examined the determinants of poverty depth among
  households in Nigeria at both the rural and urban
  sectors

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• Motivation
  for the study
• National Burea of statistics NBS (Nigeria)
  utilized National Consumption Expenditure survey
  data 2009/2010 --------to estimate poverty
  incidence for Nigeria but did not capture depth,
  severity and determinants of poverty.
• This study is an attempt to fill that gap, by
  estimating the depth, severity and determinants
  of poverty at the rural, urban and national
  level.
• Data 2009/2010 Consumption Expenditure Survey
  (38,700 households) from National Bureau of
  Statistics NBS, Nigeria.
• 
  Limitation
• At the time study was conducted there was no
  access to Harmonized National Living Standard
  Survey (HNLSS) which includes other welfare
  variables like education status, assets of
  households, access to credits e.t.c
• The study employed relative poverty line though
  absolute poverty line is considered better and
  more objective.

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ANALYTICAL TECHNIQUE

•  

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ANALYTICAL TECHNIQUE

•  

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RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
Source own computation based on National
Consumption Expenditure Data 2009/2010
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RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
Source own computation based on National
Consumption Expenditure Data 2009/2010
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Determinants of Poverty Depth in Nigeria
Variables Coefficients t-ratio
Household Size 0.0912512 84.27
Gender(Male) -0.037855 -3.78
Age of household head 0.0046764 5.36
Total Remittances Received -3.57e-8 -9.31
Marital Status 0.0105012 1.03
North -Central -0.1051182 -13.23
South -East -0.1361191 -15.50
South -South -0.0693516 -8.26
South West -0.047192 -5.32
Sector (Rural) 0.2017716 32.52
Log Likelihood -16105.212 , Pseudo R2 0.2763, Prob gt Chi2 0.0000 Log Likelihood -16105.212 , Pseudo R2 0.2763, Prob gt Chi2 0.0000 Log Likelihood -16105.212 , Pseudo R2 0.2763, Prob gt Chi2 0.0000
Notes t-ratio Significant at 1 level,
significant at 5 level
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Determinants of Poverty Depth in Rural Nigeria
Variables Coefficients t-ratio
Household Size 0.0896476 77.54
Gender(Male) -0.0244319 -2.15
Age of household head 0.0060493 6.40
Total Remittances Received -0.0000000291 -6.65
Marital Status 0.0156136 1.38
North -Central -0.1048941 -12.73
South -East -0.1367113 -14.82
South -South -0.0628685 -7.18
South West -0.0375136 -3.49
Log Likelihood -12242.307 , Pseudo R2 0.2663, Prob gt Chi2 0.0000 Log Likelihood -12242.307 , Pseudo R2 0.2663, Prob gt Chi2 0.0000 Log Likelihood -12242.307 , Pseudo R2 0.2663, Prob gt Chi2 0.0000
Notes t-ratio Significant at 1 level,
significant at 5 level
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Determinants of Poverty Depth in Urban Nigeria
Variables Coefficients t-ratio
Household Size 0.1023838 33.61
Gender -0.0724538 -3.24
Total Remittances Received -5.57E-08 -6.50
Age of household head -0.0005749 -0.25
Marital Status -0.0130128 -0.54
North -Central -0.1252555 -4.63
North -West -0.1314371 -5.04
South -East -0.1331358 -4.68
South -South -0.1167776 -4.16
South West -0.0996916 -4.17
Log Likelihood -3766.883, Pseudo R2 0.1979 , Prob gt Chi2 0.0000 Log Likelihood -3766.883, Pseudo R2 0.1979 , Prob gt Chi2 0.0000 Log Likelihood -3766.883, Pseudo R2 0.1979 , Prob gt Chi2 0.0000
Notes t-ratio Significant at 1 level
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CONCLUSIONS

• Study found out that male headed households were
  better off than their female counterparts in
  reducing poverty status.
• Poverty is more predominant in rural Nigeria and
  living in rural areas aggravates the poverty
  situation of households.
• Northern Nigeria is poorer than Southern Nigeria.
• Larger household size had a positive and
  significant impact on poverty status of
  households.
• Remittances received by households had a negative
  and significant effect on poverty status of
  households although the impact is weak.
• Further study is required to include other
  important variables

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• Thank you
• for your attention!