Theory of Change

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Theory of Change
Chesapeake Bay Funders Network Program
Evaluation Training Workshop
OMG Center for Collaborative Learning January
9-10, 2008
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Building an Evaluation Plan

• Theory of Change/Pathway Map
• Outcomes
• Indicators
• Methods
• Putting Evaluation to Work for You

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To evaluate how well youre doing, you must
have some place youre trying to get to.
Or, in Yogi Berras words, If you dont know
where youre going, youll end up somewhere
else.
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Why Theory of Change?

•  
• People hold beliefs or theories that guide our
  analysis of problems and the way that we respond
  to them.
• Clarity about the problem and the theory about
  how to address it is critical - these beliefs
  guide our work.
• Helps us to plan our work as well as evaluate it.

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EXAMPLE Injury Free Coalition for Kids Dog Bite
Prevention Program
Contextual Analysis In Rhode Island, dog bites
are the leading cause of emergency room visits by
children In other communities, evidence has
shown that educating children about the proper
way to interact with dogs reduces the number of
bites that occur
Strategic Focus To reduce dog bites among
children in Providence through a pilot dog bite
prevention and literacy program
Assumptions
Long-term Outcomes The number of emergency room
visits by children due to dog bites is
significantly reduced.
Short-term Outcomes 90 of participants are
significantly more accurate at determining safe
and unsafe dog situations Program is expanded to
include additional classrooms
Activities Develop a three session program that
educates students about dog bites Deliver
program to six elementary schools
Assumptions
Assumptions
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What is a Theory of Change?
A theory of change is an individual, group of
individuals, or organizations belief about how
to positively change conditions or behaviors It
is based on assumptions about what is needed to
make these changes Sound theory should be based
on experiences and logical judgments about what
works The process of articulating the
assumptions, actions and strategies for change
and illustrating them visually is often called
pathway mapping
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The Elements of Pathway Mapping The Way it
Works

•  
• Define key problems/issues challenging our
  communities and constituencies
• Describe what we hope to change (desired
  outcomes) in our communities through our
  interventions
• Describe how (strategies, actions, interventions)
  we hope to accomplish those outcomes
• Articulate our underlying assumptions about the
  way things work

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The Elements of Pathway Mapping The Way it
Works
Examining assumptions about what works. While
assumptions are often based on experiences from
the field, sometimes they are built on intuition.
Challenging these assumptions allows
organizations to look more closely at their
theory and reflect on the choices that they are
making. As we discuss our pathways to change,
surface and discuss the assumptions that we are
making concerning why a particular intervention
might work. Challenge those assumptions
what experiences or information are they based
on?
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The Elements of Pathway Mapping The Way it
Works
Linking strategies, actions and desired
outcomes. In order for a pathway map to be
useful, a logical path must be created that
connects strategies and actions to reasonable and
measurable outcomes. Closely examine the
links between our strategies, actions and
outcomes and ensure that they are logical,
achievable and direct. Identify and address
gaps in our strategies paths that might not
get us where we want to go.
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Heres the model that will help us create our own
pathway maps
Contextual Analysis Identify the major conditions
that serve as the backdrop to your work what are
the opportunities and challenges surrounding your
work?
Strategic Focus The overall approach to
conducting your work. If you cannot implement
all of the desired strategies at once, prioritize
them.
Assumptions
Short-term Outcomes Identify the short-term
changes in your target entity (water body,
population, etc.) that you hope to achieve by
your program/activities.
Long-term Outcomes Positive changes that you
hope to achieve in the long-run.
Actions/Activities Activities are the individual
projects that your organization works on this
could include water testing, organizing clean up
events, or contacting legislators.
Assumptions
Assumptions
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IFCK EXAMPLE WITH ASSUMPTIONS
Strategic Focus To reduce dog bites among
children in Providence through a pilot dog bite
prevention and literacy program
Contextual Analysis In Rhode Island, dog bites
are the leading cause of emergency room visits by
children In other communities, evidence has
shown that educating children about the proper
way to interact with dogs reduces the number of
bites that occur

Grantee Activities Develop a three session
program that educates students about dog
bites Deliver program to six elementary
schools
Assumptions Children can be taught
behavior-modifying material in three
sessions Schools will be receptive to this type
of programming Programming learned in the
classroom will be applied to situations in real
life
Short-term Outcomes 90 of participants are
significantly more accurate at determining safe
and unsafe dog situations Program is expanded to
include additional classrooms
Long-term Outcomes The number of emergency room
visits by children due to dog bites is
significantly reduced.



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EXAMPLE Fullojunk Watershed Alliance
Contextual Analysis The watershed is in a highly
populated area, so there is a large amount of
pollution in the water The local public and
policymakers have limited knowledge of the state
of the watershed Current legislation does very
little to protect the Fullojunk Watershed
Strategic Focus Improve the environmental
quality of the Fullojunk Watershed through clean
up efforts, education, and advocacy.
Assumptions
Long-term Outcomes
Short-term Outcomes Decreased tons of trash
captured in netting system
Alliance Activities Organize watershed clean up
events Provide education programming to schools
and other orgs Contact lawmakers to advocate for
policies that benefit the watershed
Assumptions Educating kids and community members
about effects of trash on water quality will lead
to changes in their behavior
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How do we develop a Theory of Change

• Convene all stakeholders for a planning meeting
  (staff, Board, volunteers, key partners,
  community members)
• Designate a facilitator
• Address each element of the TOC and reach
  consensus
• Share with key stakeholders and revise based on
  feedback

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How do we Use Theory of Change

• As a planning and communication tool
• Involving stakeholders in planning and helping
  them get clarity and consensus around program or
  project activities and outcomes
• Providing opportunities to correct faulty
  underlying assumptions and modify the programs
  design before it is launched

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How do we Use Theory of Change

• As a planning and communication tool (cont.)
• As a check to help inform decisions about changes
  as the program evolves
• Is this within our focus?
• Will it help us get to out outcomes?
• What are our assumptions?

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How do we Use Theory of Change

• As an evaluation tool
• Laying the foundation for the evaluation plan
  through the identification of outcomes that will
  be measured
• Helping stakeholders in a partnership decide what
  outcomes they are responsible for

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How do we Use Theory of Change

• As an evaluation tool (cont.)
• Providing a map to revisit implementation steps
  to inform your understanding of program outcomes
  (Why did this result happen?)

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Exercise

• Use the blank pathway map worksheets in your
  folder to develop the Contextual Analysis,
  Strategic Focus, Assumptions, and Activities for
  your own organization.