AST

1
ASTs Research Roadmap
On the web at www.coe-cst.org under the
Publications tab.
2
COMMERCIAL SPACE INDUSTRY ANALYSES STUDIES
2
3
CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN ON THE ROLE OF DATA AND
THEORY IN STRATEGY AND INNOVATION
3
4
Strategy and innovation are somewhere between
unguided trial-and-error experimentation and
rules-based science.
4
5
We train managers and do research about
management with the belief that decisions
should be grounded in solid analysis of data.
Data-based analyses rely on an implicit
theory The past is a good predictor of the
future.
5
6
The game is changing, meaning what was
successful in the past would no longer guarantee
success in the future.
6
7
The level of one's insight is not strictly a
function of the level of one's access to unique
or proprietary information. Armed with the
right concepts, anyone can produce insights that
surpass those of analysts who are knee-deep in
industry minutiae.
7
8
The only way to look into the future is to use
these sorts of theories, because conclusive
data is only available about the past. Good
theory provides a robust way to understand
important developments, even when data is
limited.
8
9
Theory is even more helpful when there is an
abundance of data. With more information
available, it is harder to discern what
information really matters. Theory helps to
block out the noise and to amplify the signal.
9
10
Many people who make their livings providing
advice about the future express deep skepticism
about theory-based prognostication.
10
11
COMMERCIAL SPACE INDUSTRY ANALYSES STUDIES
11
12
Targeted Barriers of Entry
13
(No Transcript)
14

• Definition The Nature, Scope, Limitations of
  Knowledge.

• The Usefulness of Models (Taleb)
• Increases Understanding
• Easier to Remember
• Simplifies by Necessity
• 3 Types of Scientific Literature (Kuhn)
• Journal Articles
• Text Books
• Popularizations
• Evolution of Scientific Investigation (Johnson)
• Joseph Priestley vs. Antoine Lavoissier

15

• Commercial Development Policy History. (Hart)
• U.S. policymakers, particularly at the state and
  local levels, have been groping toward an
  explicit entrepreneurship policy for at least a
  couple of decades. Their experiments have
  typically been pragmatic, inspired by immediate
  needs and pressures and by one another's
  examples, rather than by a grand theoretical
  design.
• Space Power Perspectives
• ISS (Cathedral) - Commercial Space (Common
  Bazaar).
• Policies Of Conflicting Interests (Hertzfeld)
• National Security vs. Commercial Space

16

• Finance Is The Practical Application Of
  Economics.
• Rationality of Markets Is Highly Debatable.
• Provides Important Perspectives On Industry.
• Lack Of Consensus Makes Decision-making Very
  Hard.
• If You Put X Economists In A Room, You Get 2x
  Opinions.

17

• WHAT IS MANAGEMENT CONSULTING?
• NOT a discipline.
• A collection of unsolved problems and hidden
  agendas.
• Asking the right questions is more important than
  finding the right answers.
• Issues temporarily placated, not resolved.
• Offers (pretended technological) solutions to
  what are moral and political problems.
• MBA TRAINING vs. EDUCATION
• Emphasis on technique, not theory
• In formal evaluations, those without MBAs
  performed better than those with MBAs.

THE BOTTOM LINEUSG needs to be smart buyers
of mgt consulting services.
BUSINESS CONSULTING INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT
LEVELS 1980 - 18,000 2005 - 180,000 (10x) MBA
DEGREES EARNED 1968 - 18,000 1988 - 70,000
(3.9x) 2008 - 140,000 (2x) BIZ CONSULTING
EMPLOYMENT OF NEW GRADUATES 25 MBAs _at_ Top Biz
Schools 16 BAs _at_ Elite Universities

• Porter McKibbin 1988 Key managers pay
  little or no attention to academic business
  research or its findings.

18

• Industry Frameworks, Structures
• Industry Structural Analysis (Porter)
• Disruption Innovation Theory (Christensen)
• Game Theory Value Net (Brandenburger Nalebuff)
• Diffusion of Innovations (Rogers)
• 10 Schools of Strategic Mgt (Mintzberg)

19
Need for Commercial Space Industry Analyses
Studies

• Policy tends to by pragmatic, inspired by
  immediate needs and pressures and by one
  another's examples, rather than by a grand
  theoretical design. - David Hart, "The Emergence
  of Entrepreneurship Policy"
• USG Space Policy and Acquisition Strategy
  Regarding Commercial Space Industry
• Currently Relies Heavily Upon Personal Experience
  and Data-Based Studies Methodologies
• Could Benefit from Theory-Based Analyses
  Structures
• Approach Make Use All Analytical Options To
  Provide More Nuanced Perspectives to Support
  Decision-Makers
• Goals Strategic Development of CST Industry
  Policy Acquisition

19
20
Scope of Commercial Space Industry Analyses
Studies

• Accounting
• Economics
• Finance
• Human Resources
• Management (Strategic )
• Marketing
• Operations
• Multiple-Disciplinary

• Other
• General Business
• Information Technology
• Insurance
• International Business
• Law
• Real Estate and Urban Land Economics
• Risk Management
• Work and Organizations

20
21
Recent Work

• NASA, FAA Other USG Reports
• 1997 Commercial Space Transportation Study
• 2002 DoC OSC Space Market Opportunities
• 2003 ASCENT Study performed by Futron Corporation
  (D. Webber) funded by NASA MSFC
• 2008 2nd NGEC Entrepreneurial Opportunity in
  Lunar Development
• 2008 Oxford Analytical "Understanding the Space
  Economy"
• 2010 FAA Commercial Human Spaceflight Workshop
• 2010 Near Earth LLC Supporting Commercial Space
  Development
• 2011 NASA Commercial Space Transportation Market
  Assessment Report
• FAA Launch Forecast Reports (Annual)
• FAA Economic Impact Reports (Biannual)

• US Industry, State, Academic, Int'l Reports
• 2008 Tauri Report for PSF
• 2009 Toffler BW Paper
• 2010 Paper Measuring the Impact of Space Tourism
  Activities
• 2011 Tauri Report to Space Florida Reusable
  Suborbital Market Characterization
• 2011 MD The Business of Space Science
• OECD Space Economy at a Glance Reports (2007,
  2011)
• Enabling Complementary Commercial and Government
  Enterprises In Space by Dr. M. Griffin presented
  at the 2011 IAC.

21
22
Current Theory-Based Studies
Commercial Space Market Disruption Innovation Theory (Christensen) Industry Structural Analysis(Porter)
Suborbital Vehicles "Suborbital Market Overview And Application Of Disruption Theory" by K. Davidian, 2010 IAC. COMING SOON Suborbital Research Market Industry Structural Analysis" by K. Davidian and C. Conrad.
Orbital Launch Vehicles (Cargo Crewed) "Disruptive Innovation Theory Applied to Commercial Cargo and Crew Space Transportation Markets" by K. Davidian, J. Foust, D. Kaiser and I. Christiansen, 2011 IAC. "An Industry Structural Analysis and Strategy Insights for the Commercial Crew Transportation Industry" by D. Kaiser, I. Christiansen, J. Foust and K. Davidian, AIAA Space 2011.
On-Orbit Spacecraft "Applying Disruption Innovation Theory in Emerging Markets for Crew On-Orbit Transportation" by I. Christiansen, K. Davidian, D. Kaiser and J. Foust, AIAA Space 2011. "Industry Structural Analysis Of Commercial Crew To Orbit Sector" by B. Cheetham, 2010 IAC. "Strategic Evaluation Of Commercial Crew To Orbit Transportation Industry Structure And Status" by B. Cheetham, 2011 IAC.
Nano-Sats Market Characterization Launch of Very-Small and Nano-Sized Payloads Enabled By New Launch Vehicles by I. Christiansen, D. Vaccaro and D. Kaiser, 2010 IAC.
Multi-Market "Are Commercial Space Transportation Industries Emerging?" by K. Davidian, J. Foust, D. Kaiser and I. Christiansen, 2011 IAC.

• Next Steps Application of Game Theory
  Frameworks, Application of Diffusion of
  Innovations Research

22
23
Summary

• Current Portfolio of Industry Analyses are
  Heavily Data-Based
• Addition of Theory-Based Analyses With Data-Based
  Studies Can Paint a More Nuanced Picture
• Ultimate Goal is Better Space Policy and
  Acquisition Strategy Decisions

23
24
BACK-UP SLIDES
24
25
25
26
26