Extracting real bottom line benefit from Information and Communications Technology(ICT)

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Extracting real bottom line benefit from
Information and Communications Technology(ICT)
IoD Wessex Branch Hotel Miramar -
Bournemouth 12 July 2005
Prof. Jim Norton Senior Policy Adviser e-Business
e-Government Institute of Directors
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Issues to be covered

• Setting the scene - the impact of exponential
  growth.
• Affordable broadband access is vital for
  business.
• Nildram/IoD Policy Unit broadband survey results.
• Dell/IoD SME survey results.
• Extracting the benefits
• A glimpse of the future
• Final thoughts.

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The second half of the chessboard
Original idea George Gilder at the
Cato-Brookings Institution conference "Regulation
in the Digital Age," held in Washington D.C. on
April 17-18, 1997.
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The cost-performance of electronics doubles every
18-24 months (Moores Law)
33 Doublings
Source Analysys
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Moores Law in ActionIntel Microprocessors
2T/18
Source Intel Silicon Image
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Opto-electronics follow the same path (Moores
Law operates in telecoms, too)
32 Doublings
Source Analysys
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Gigabit Ethernet installed base growth
Millions
Source IDC Silicon Image
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The cost-performance of magnetic storage doubles
roughly every 18months
26 Doublings
Source Silicon Image
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Magnetic disk costs (3.5 platters)
Source IDC Silicon Image
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Coopers law for wireless
42 Doublings
Coopers Law, (after ArrayComm Chairman, Martin
Cooper), states that the number of conversations
(voice and data) conducted over a given area, in
all of the useful radio spectrum, has doubled
every two and a half years for the last 105
years, ever since Marconi discovered radio in 1895
Source ArrayComm
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But we have seen this before in the context of
the telegraph
Source Tom Standage, The Economist, The
Victorian Internet
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The first half of the chessboard has already
delivered some surprises
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All these devices are now mobile enabled...
.welcome to the world of m-business
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HG Wells prophetic vision of the future, The
Shape of Things to Come, 1933

• It is remarkable to note how long mankind was
  able to carry on without any knowledge
  organisation whatever. Nor was there any
  conception of the need of a permanent system of
  ordered knowledge, continually revised, until the
  20th century was nearing its end. To those of
  an earlier age our Fundamental Knowledge System
  with its special stations everywhere would
  have seemed incredibly vast.

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We are drowning in data.
Where is the life we have lost in living? Where
is the wisdom we have lost in knowledge? Where is
the knowledge we have lost in information? T S
Eliot, Choruses from The Rock, 1934
And a codicil for the 21st century Where is the
information we have lost in data?
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Issues to be covered

• Setting the scene - the impact of exponential
  growth.
• Affordable broadband access is vital for
  business.
• Nildram/IoD Policy Unit broadband survey results.
• Dell/IoD SME survey results.
• Extracting the benefits
• A glimpse of the future
• Final thoughts.

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Why is broadband access key to e-business?
A key mistake in early e-business adoption was to
have a sales site hosted by an ISP (and thus
always on) but not to have the back office
permanently online and linked in real time to the
sales site. Affordable broadband allows

• cost effective always on linkage between
  front and back office systems ensuring that
  what is sold is genuinely in stock and can be
  delivered!
• genuine participation by SMEs in the extranets
  built around industry supply chains
• access by customers into the companys core
  systems for design and configuration

Broadband access reduces the asymmetries between
large and small companies
Source UK Broadband Stakeholder Forum
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Broadband isnt just about speed
Source UK Work Foundation - iSociety programme -
James Crabtree http//www.theisociety.net
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Issues to be covered

• Setting the scene - the impact of exponential
  growth.
• Affordable broadband access is vital for
  business.
• Nildram/IoD Policy Unit broadband survey results.
• Dell/IoD SME survey results.
• Extracting the benefits
• A glimpse of the future
• Final thoughts.

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IoD Policy Unit broadband survey

• Policy Unit questionnaire published in June
  edition of IoD News and on IoD.com
• 409 IoD members responded.
• Small businesses dominated
• 56.7 has up to 9 employees
• 23 had 10 to 49 employees
• 11.5 had 50 to 249 employees and
• 8.1 had more than 250 employees.

Source Nildram/IoD October 2004
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Key messages from the survey

• Broadband is good for business
• Penetration is now high (though members in rural
  areas not yet reached are increasingly
  frustrated)
• Connection Quality of Service (QoS) is
  perceived to be improving
• Respondents welcome increased competition
• For a small minority there are still significant
  unmanaged security exposures from always on
  access and
• Affordable broadband access is significant
  facilitator of home working.

Source Nildram/IoD October 2004
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What quantifiable benefits are you seeing in
your business use of broadband access?
84.3 of respondents cite productivity
improvements from broadband access. 64 of
respondents see a direct link between broadband
and increased profits.
Base 325 respondents who use broadband for
business purposes.
Source Nildram/IoD October 2004
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Many respondents believe that broadband access
brings very significant business benefits
Better and faster RD.
Better information for decisions
Can now do jobs we would not have contemplated
four years ago.
Couldnt do business without it.
Improved communications with/for outworkers
Transforms way of working.
Speed and ability to work anywhere in the World
Quick access to worldwide web with huge increase
in use at low fixed monthly cost.
Source Nildram/IoD October 2004
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What measures do you take to protect your home
(or home office) PC against viruses and other
security threats?
There are still significant vulnerabilities with
10 of respondents not using a firewall and 23
not regularly installing security updates
Base 325 respondents who use broadband for
business purposes.
Source Nildram/IoD October 2004
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Issues to be covered

• Setting the scene - the impact of exponential
  growth.
• Affordable broadband access is vital for
  business.
• Nildram/IoD Policy Unit broadband survey results.
• Dell/IoD SME survey results.
• Extracting the benefits
• A glimpse of the future
• Final thoughts.

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Dell/IoD SME Information systems survey

• Research undertaken in June/July 2004
• 562 IoD members took part across all industry
  sectors
• Majority had less than 250 employees. Nearly half
  with less that 10 employees and a quarter had 11-
  50 employees.
• Medium sized companies were also well represented

Source Dell/IoD September 2004
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SMEs recognise the benefits and competitive
advantage information systems can bring

• Through their reasons for investing in IT.

Productivity was the biggest driver Increasing
sales, reducing costs, reducing risk and
competitive pressure were also factors
73
Investment / upgrades driving force behind the
spend Followed by growth (28) and replacement
(15)
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Source Dell/IoD September 2004
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SMEs recognise the benefits and competitive
advantage information systems can bring

• Through their ambitions..

Overwhelming majority had number one goal to grow
their business and.
91
they see technology as a key factor in
achieving this
84
Source Dell/IoD September 2004
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Issues to be covered

• Setting the scene - the impact of exponential
  growth.
• Affordable broadband access is vital for
  business.
• Nildram/IoD Policy Unit broadband survey results.
• Dell/IoD SME survey results.
• Extracting the benefits
• A glimpse of the future
• Final thoughts.

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Eight key landmarks to navigate by

• Customers
• Creativity
• Co-operation
• Commitment
• Charging
• Competition
• Culture
• Cost

The eight Cs of e-business strategy...
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Customers - serving them better...

• Outsourcing cost to customers yet improving their
  satisfaction.
• Developing one to one marketing based on
  detailed customer profiles.

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Outsourcing cost to the customer.Dell
Source http//www1.euro.dell.com/content/default.
aspx?cuklensgen
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Outsourcing cost to the customer.Jali
Source http//www.jali.co.uk
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Outsourcing cost to the customer.Jali
Source http//www.jali.co.uk
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Issues to be covered

• Setting the scene - the impact of exponential
  growth.
• Affordable broadband access is vital for
  business.
• Nildram/IoD Policy Unit broadband survey results.
• Dell/IoD SME survey results.
• Extracting the benefits
• A glimpse of the future
• Final thoughts.

36
How will the mobile phone change to become a true
m-business device?

• Keypad - removed in 2005 - replaced by continuous
  voice recognition.

• Screen - upgraded by end 2006 - made as large as
  you wish using foldable amorphous semiconductor.

• Communications - upgrading
• now nationally to 28.8 kbps (HSCSD) and 40 kbps
  (GPRS) and
• Now rolling out 3G to 384 kbps wide area 2 Mbps
  in building.

• Processing - by end 2006 as capable as as top of
  the range year 2003 laptop.

• Battery life - probably the biggest problem!
  Methane based micro-fuel cells by 2006/7.

Source A little informed speculation!
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Will we see new models for processing?
Todays model, based on individual processors and
servers on the end of 130 million broadband
connections across the world, is inherently
insecure. Even with the heroic assumption that
99 have fully configured firewalls and up to
date virus protection, this would still leave
more than 1 million processors infected with
Trojan viruses and able to participate in
denial of service attacks. This is not
sustainable. I suggest that processing will move
into the network, leaving very thin clients
(screen scrapers). Software, processing and
storage will be available on a pay per use basis.
This model powered by broadband access will
greatly benefit small business
Source UK Broadband Stakeholder Forum
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Issues to be covered

• Setting the scene - the impact of exponential
  growth.
• Affordable broadband access is vital for
  business.
• Nildram/IoD Policy Unit broadband survey results.
• Dell/IoD SME survey results.
• Extracting the benefits
• A glimpse of the future
• Final thoughts.

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Key messages.

• Affordable broadband access, initially fixed,
  eventually mobile, is a key accelerator of
  e-Business.
• Broadband enabled e-business often generates
  business benefits way beyond costs.
• Interactivity based upon pervasive, affordable,
  broadband access will have profound implications.
• UK has been a long way behind on pervasive
  broadband, but is now catching up fast.
• But this is not about technology, the real
  challenge rests with the concurrent investment in
  people. Funding training and internal
  communications, changing business processes and
  strategies to extract the maximum value

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And remember the law of unintended consequences.
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Questions Answers
Slides (in powerpoint format) available to
download from www.profjimnorton.com/iodbournemou
th1.ppt