BEA

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BEAs Regional Economic Accounts

• Overview and
• Recent Research Activities

Robert L. Brown Understanding Regional Economic
Data for Policy and Planning Dallas,
Texas September 8, 2006
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BEAs Regional Accounts Data

• Personal income
• State, quarterly and annual
• Local area, annual
• Counties, metro areas, BEA economic areas
• Gross State Product (GSP) by industry
• Annual for 81 industries
• Regional input-output multipliers
• RIMS II
• For user defined regions

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Uses of BEAs Regional Accounts

• To distribute over 215 billion in Federal grants
  to states
• Revenue and expenditure forecasts
• Economic development planning
• New business location and expansion decisions
• Assessment of local impacts of development or
  disaster
• Econometric forecasting models

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BEAs Regional Accounts Initiatives

• Accelerated
• estimates
• New
• statistics
• Improved
• estimates
• Other
• research

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Accelerated estimates

• Metropolitan area personal income
• From 16 to 9 months after the end of the year
• 2005 released September 6
• Gross State Product
• From 17 to 6 months after the end of the year
• June 6 release for 2005 total GSP
• October 26 release for 2005 GSP by industry
• Compensation of employees by industry and county
• From 13 to 12 months after the end of the year
• 2004 released December 30, 2005

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New Statistics Local Area Data

• Metro area disposable personal income
• Researching the estimation of personal current
  taxes for metro areas
• Subtracted from personal income to derive DPI
• Some results
• Bridgeport, CT per capita personal current taxes
  16,15026.1 of personal income
• McAllen, TX per capita personal current taxes
  1,0827.4 of personal income

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New Statistics More Local Area Data

• Gross metro product (GMP)
• Initial estimatestop-down approach
• Allocate GSP by local area earnings data
• Research into bottom-up approach for non-labor
  part of GMP
• Taxes and gross operating surplus
• Research using sub-state Census Bureau data

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New Statistics Longer Time Series

• Carry time series back in time on a NAICS basis
• Annual State earnings back to 1990
• In September 2006
• Will evaluate extent of BLS suppressions of WS
  for counties
• GSP back to 1992
• Requires back-casting Census Bureau data at
  Center for Economic Studies
• Historical GSP on SIC basis
• GSP now released (in April) for 1963 forward

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New Statistics Interarea Prices

• Indexes that permit place to place comparisons
  correcting for price level differences
• Jointly with the BLS, using CPI microdata
• Intermediate goal produce indexes for 38 urban
  areas
• Covers 87 percent of US population
• CPI covers urban areas, so state indexes require
  additional data
• BEA Advisory Committee presentation and Working
  Paper in 2005
• Article scheduled for September Monthly Labor
  Review

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New Statistics Alternative Estimates of Regional
Income and Product

• Develop alternative household income measures
  that better meet user needs to
• Measure spending capacity
• Track tax base
• Develop alternative GSP methodology to estimate
  gross output and intermediate expenses

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Improved Estimates Regional Multipliers

• Improve methods to regionalize the national
  input-output accounts
• Capture interregional flows of goods and people
• Produce value-added multipliers
• In addition to gross output multipliers currently
  produced
• Much of this research will be undertaken with
  Commodity Flow Survey microdata
• At the Census Bureaus Center for Economic
  Studies

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Improved Estimates New Source Data

• IRS Information Returns data
• Potential information on
• Pension disbursements and roll-overs to aid in
  estimating alternative income measures
• Non-filers who receive information returns but
  dont need to file tax returns
• Information to reconcile state personal income
  with adjusted gross income
• Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) data for
  estimating employers contributions to health
  insurance
• Provide better interarea variation on health
  insurance contributions

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Other Research

• Intra-industry Trade among states
• The American Community Survey (ACS) and the Local
  Employment Dynamics (LED) datasets as substitutes
  for the decennial Census long-form
• Interactive Web-based state and county personal
  income mapping

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Regional Working Papers and Presentations in One
Location

• Go To BEA Home
• Regional
• Articles Tool Bar
• Regional Working Papers and Presentations

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Questions?

• Contact
• Robert L, Brown
• 202.606.9246
• Robert.brown_at_bea.gov