BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE

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BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE
How Big is the Threat?
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Bushs promise

• 2000- Campaign pledge to deploy an effective
  missile shield
• Presidential Promise
• December 17th, 2002- Promised to have a Ballistic
  Missile Defense Program running by 2004-2005
• Presidential Address

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Is the threat to the United States strong enough
to merit rushing an incomplete Ballistic Missile
Defense Program?

• Important to understand the threat in order to
  plan an appropriate defense
• 2 opposing camps
• Proponents of ballistic missile defense
• Conservatives
• Believe that an imminent threat exists that makes
  it necessary to speed up our ballistic missile
  defense program
• Opponents of ballistic missile defense
• Liberals
• Believe that the threat that the United States
  presently faces from the nuclear states is not
  great enough to merit rushing a defense program
  that has not been fully developed

4
Main points of Disagreement

• Testing
• Costs
• Countermeasures

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Is testing necessary?

• Proponents
• Not necessary to test
• Testing will reveal the secrets of our defense
  capabilities
• Current defensive capabilities are sufficient for
  primitive nuclear missile attacks
• Test

• Opponents
• Only 8 of the 19 tests have been conducted, and
  with mixed results
• Tests start out simple and get more complex
• Only simple tests have been conducted still in R
  D phase
• Tests that have been conducted have not been
  accurate because the testing conditions were not
  realistic
• Simplified tests
• Involved surrogate components (i.e. slower
  defensive rockets than the ones that would be
  used in a real situation GPS satellites)
• The government has been misrepresenting the
  testing success they have had
• NY Times April 18th, May 18th
• Wall Street Journal January 14th 2000

6
Is the present threat great enough to justify the
costs of BMD?

• Opponents
• The government is devoting too much money to
  ballistic missile defense
• 10 billion dollars a year too much to spend
• Spending billions of dollars to defend against a
  threat that does not exist
• North Korea not as much of a military threat as a
  proliferation threat
• Country low on money- cant even afford the fuel
  to keep their fighter pilots in the air
• It is profitable to sell nuclear secrets and
  materials

• Proponents
• Defense needs to be number one priority of the
  United States government
• The nuclear states, specifically North Korea,
  Russia, China, Iran and Iraq, have made huge
  technological gains
• Most countries that have the technology can
  produce nuclear arms within a matter of months
• Russia and China have long-range ballistic
  missiles capable of reaching the United States
• North Korea, Iran and Iraq are within 10 years of
  having missiles that can reach United States

7
The question of countermeasures

• Opponents
• Too many unknowns
• BMD program cannot be pushed forward before we
  understand how to deal with the countermeasures
  of the offense
• We do not yet know what countermeasures are
  within the technological capabilities of the
  threatening nuclear states, nor how effective our
  program would be in defending against them
• Countermeasures

• Proponents
• The nations that we face as threats do not
  possess the ability to produce countermeasures
  complex enough to deceive our defenses
• Must keep in mind who it is we are defending
  against (North Koreas economic resources
  sophistication of Soviet Union)
• We have prepared for countermeasures which are
  far more complex than anything the offense could
  use

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Question So, what does the rest of America
think?Answer It depends on who you talk to

• Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance (MDAA)
• Conducted polls of registered voters in AZ, MS,
  NH, SC and PA over the past year (most recent
  05/26/04)
• 78 support the plan to deploy a partial missile
  defense system in 2004

Insert graph here
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The Other Side of Public Opinion

• Coalition to Reduce Nuclear Dangers
• April 2000 survey of 1000 adults was conducted by
  the Coalition to Reduce Nuclear Dangers, the
  Council for a Livable World Education Fund, and
  the Fourth Freedom Forum
• 59 support waiting to decide on deployment of
  national missile defenses until after the 19
  tests are complete

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How Can This Be?

• Contradicting polls results have been published
  on a continual basis over the past 10 years
• Both sides use techniques to skew the results
• Preliminary questions to elevate concerns
• Remind people about continuing Russian/ Chinese
  threat
• Introductory clause
• knowing that (US cannot currently stop one
  incoming missile/ many scientists conclude that
  it is unlikely such a system will work)
• Compare costs to another cause
  (popular/unpopular)
• Health care and education/ peacekeeping in Bosnia

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What Does This Mean?

• Poll results do not always give an accurate
  representation of public opinion
• The ease at which the opinions of respondents can
  be skewed could indicate a general lack of
  knowledge of Ballistic Missile Defense, and lack
  of exposure to all sides of the issue
• Political propaganda, world events, and the media
  are also reasons for constant fluctuations in
  results

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Where Do You Stand?
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Work Cited

• Special Thanks To
• Dean Wilkening
• Michael May
• Carlos Seligo
• Dena Slothower
• Work Cited
• Butler, Richard. Fatal Choice. Cambridge
  Westview Press, 2001.
• Carter, Ashton B. ed. and N. Schwartz, ed.
  Ballistic Missile Defense. Washington D.C. The
  Brookings Institution, 1984.
• www.clw.org/coalition/pollmd2.htm
• http//www.brookings.edu/views/op-ed/ohanlon/20040
  412.htm
• http//www.state.gov/t/ac/rls/fs/2001/4892.htm
• http//www.ucsusa.org/
• http//www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/12/20
  021217.html
• http//www.clw.org/pub/clw/coalition/polling.htmb
  md