Voting behaviour Joan Garrod

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Voting behaviourJoan Garrod
FOTOLIA
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Falling turnout

• Politicians from all parties are increasingly
  concerned by the falling turnout rate at UK
  elections, particularly general elections.
• The turnout rate measures the proportion of those
  who are eligible to vote who actually do so.
• There are two related problems
• A growing number of people, especially first-time
  voters and those from minority ethnic groups,
  are not registered to vote, thus making
  themselves ineligible.
• Even among those registered to vote, a growing
  number fail to actually cast their vote.
• Turnout at local elections, by-elections and
  European parliamentary elections is much lower
  than at general elections.

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Turnout at general elections

• The following table gives the UK percentage
  turnout at general elections in selected years.

Year Turnout Year Turnout
1945 72.8 1992 77.7
1950 83.9 1997 71.4
1964 77.1 2001 59.4
1979 76.0 2005 61.4
1987 75.3 2010 65.1
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Why people dont vote (1)

• In December 2013, ICM Research carried out a
  survey for the Guardian newspaper.
• They interviewed an online sample of 2,023 adults
  aged 18 between 20 December and 22 December.
• The following slide shows some of the reasons
  non-voters gave for not voting.

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Why people dont vote (2)
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From the same research, here are some peoples
feelings towards politicians.
Why people dont vote (3)
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Reasons for not voting

• Political parties, both in and out of government,
  appear to have a problem inspiring trust among
  the electorate, and also in presenting themselves
  as sufficiently different from one another.
• The Guardian research showed that
• 64 of respondents identified the failure of
  governments to honour their pledges as something
  that would put them off voting
• 26 regarded the parties as so similar that
  voting makes little difference

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Role models?

• Recently, two well-known figures revealed that
  they had never voted they were the former
  England footballer Michael Owen and the
  comedian/broadcaster Russell Brand. It has been
  suggested that high-profile figures such as these
  revealing their lack of participation in voting
  would put off some people, especially younger
  voters, from taking part in elections.
• Discussion point
• To what extent do you think that younger voters
  might be influenced by these views?

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Its not just turnout that matters

• While there is understandable concern at falling
  turnout rates, there seems to be an even greater
  problem for UK democracy the growing inequality
  in turnout.
• Participation in elections is falling fastest
  among the young and the least affluent.
• This means that the well-off and older voters
  have a disproportionate influence over government
  policies.
• Such unequal turnout reduces the incentives for
  governments to respond to the interests of
  non-voters. This leads to the growing conviction
  among non-voters that politics has little to
  offer them and does not represent their
  interests, making them even less likely to vote.

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The growing gap

• In 1987, there was a four-point gap in the
  turnout rate between the highest income groups
  and the poorest of the electorate.
• In 2010, the gap had increased to 23 points.
• If we take young voters as those aged between
  1824, and older voters as those aged 66 and
  over
• in 1970, the gap in the turnout rate between
  young and older voters was 18 points
• in 2010, the gap had increased to 32 points
• This is significant because research shows that
  those who vote when they are young are more
  likely to continue to vote as they get older. It
  seems now that younger people are less likely
  than those from previous generations to get into
  the habit of voting.

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Consequences (1)

• The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR)
  published a report, Divided democracy, in
  November 2013. Part of the report was an analysis
  of the impact of the 2010 spending review on
  voters and non-voters.
• This showed that those groups who voted in the
  2010 general election faced cuts worth 12 of
  their annual household income.
• However, groups of non-voters faced cuts worth
  20 of their annual household income.
• The cuts had a disproportionate effect on the
  young and the poor precisely those groups who
  are least likely to vote.

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Consequences (2)

• The IPPR analysis also showed that
• Those with annual household incomes of less than
  10,000 stand to lose the equivalent of 41 of
  their average income through cuts.
• Those with annual incomes of over 60,000 will
  lose on average 2,104, representing just 3 of
  this groups average income.
• The average loss in services and benefits amounts
  to 1,850 per voter, compared to 2,135 per
  non-voter.

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A solution?

• Clearly, non-voters are at a disadvantage in
  terms of government policies.
• The IPPR argue that the best way to boost
  political participation among hard-to-reach
  groups is by compulsory voting. This is currently
  practised in about a quarter of the worlds
  democracies, including Belgium and Australia. In
  Belgium, the turnout has averaged 93 in the
  elections since 1946, while over the same period
  the turnout in Australia has averaged 95.
• Voting itself is not required by law what is
  compulsory is attendance at the polls.
• Discussion point
• What do you see as the advantages and
  disadvantages of such systems?

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A compromise? (1)

• The IPPR report proposes a compromise namely
  that first-time voters in the UK should be
  obliged to go to the polls, on the first occasion
  that they are eligible to vote.
• They would only be compelled to attend ballot
  papers would have a box entitled None of the
  above in order for voters to register that they
  did not wish to cast a vote for any of the
  candidates listed.
• The IPPR suggests that to ensure a high
  participation rate, there should be a small fine
  for non-attendance.

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A compromise? (2)

• The IPPRs arguments for this proposal are
• having been to the polls once, young voters would
  be more likely to continue going in the future
• politicians would be forced to pay attention to
  young voters and their interests
• Discussion point
• What are your views on this proposal, given the
  knowledge of the disadvantages of non-voting?