THREATS

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Threat Support Directorate
TRADOC DCSINT
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UNCLASSIFIED

• THREATS
• IN THE CONTEMPORARY
• OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT

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UNCLASSIFIED
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OBJECTIVES

• Describe the contemporary operational environment
  (COE).
• Describe the kinds of threats the US Army may
  face in the COE.

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OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
.
A composite of all the conditions, circumstances,
and influences that affect the employment of
military forces and bear on the decisions of the
unit commander. IN SHORT The factors and
variables that affect where soldiers will live,
work, and fight.
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THREAT
Any specific foreign nation or organization with
intentions and military capabilities that suggest
it could be adversarial or challenge the security
interests of the United States, its friends, or
allies. IN SHORT A potential adversary to the
United States.
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COLD WAROPPOSING FORCE (OPFOR)
.
An organized force created by and from U.S. army
units to portray a unit of a potential adversary
armed force. AR 350-2 (1976)
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HOW THE ARMY HAS EVOLVED

• Many Possible Threats
• CONUS-Based Forces
• Capability to Move Our Forces
• Broad Range of Missions Worldwide
• Mobile and Lethal Forces

The Army of 2010 and Beyond
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Bosnia
Desert Storm
Haiti
Kosovo
Panama
Somalia
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CONTEMPORARYOPPOSING FORCE (OPFOR)
.
A plausible, flexible military and/or nonmilitary
force representing a composite of varying
capabilities of actual worldwide forces, used in
lieu of a specific threat force, for training and
developing US forces.
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STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT
RUSSIA
EU
BOSNIA
UNITED STATES
KOREA
CHECHNYA
CHINA
TURKEY
JAPAN
INDIA-PAKISTAN
ALGERIA
CUBA
EGYPT
MEXICO
HAITI
IRAQ IRAN
SUDAN
TAIWAN
PANAMA
COLOMBIA
SOMALIA
LIBERIA
RWANDA
BRAZIL
INDONESIA
SOUTH AFRICA
AUSTRALIA
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ACTORS

• Who are the actors (participants)?
• Nation-states (countries).
• Non-nation actors.

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NATION-STATE ACTORS

• Core states (major powers).
• Transition states (want-to-be).
• Rogue states (hostile).
• Failed or failing states (instability).
• Countries can switch categories.
• Multinational alliances and coalitions.

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NON-NATION ACTORS

• Rogue actors
• Terrorist.
• Drug-trafficking.
• Criminal.

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NON-NATION ACTORS (Cont)

• Third-party actors
• Civilians on the battlefield.
• International humanitarian relief organizations.

C.A.R.E.
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NON-NATION ACTORS (Cont)

• Media agencies.
• Multinational corporations

• Information.
• Manipulation.

• Help transition states build infrastructure.
• Influence regional affairs for economic gain.
• Concern about collateral damage.
• Armed security forces.

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FOREIGN VIEWS OF THE US

• Major power with overall technological advantage.
• Avoid direct fighting and rely on air campaign
  and standoff technology.
• Depend on high technology.
• Depend on information dominance.

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FOREIGN VIEWS OF THE US (Cont)

• Unwilling to accept heavy losses.
• Sensitive to domestic and world opinion.
• Lack of commitment over time.
• Lack of cultural awareness.

• Conduct predictable military operations.

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FOREIGN VIEWS OF THE US (Cont)

• Vulnerability of coalitions.
• Vulnerability of force projection.

• Depend on robust logistics.
• Rely on contractor support.
• Downsize after conflict.

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ASYMMETRIC WARFARE

• Avoid your opponents strengths.
• Use whatever advantages
• you may have against
• his weaknesses.
• Our enemies are
• not going to fight
• our kind of war.

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STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT
TERRORISM AND RISING CRIME
GLOBAL VILLAGE PHENOMENA
TECHNOLOGY/ INFORMATION AGE
ECONOMIC DETERMINISM DEMOGRAPHIC TENSION
ROGUE STATES
SUB-NATIONAL GROUPS
THREATENING CONDITIONS
STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT
ALLIANCES AND TRANSNATIONAL GROUPS
CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES
ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY/ WEAPONS PROLIFERATION
POLITICAL DECONFLICTION
ETHNO- LINGUISTIC PAN-NATIONALISM
CULTURAL/ SOCIETAL CONCERNS
DIMINISHED EFFECTS OF TIME AND SPACE
MULTIPOLAR REGIONAL POWER CENTERS
INCREASED RISK
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CRITICAL VARIABLES
Operational Environment
Nature Stability of the State
Information
Economics
Technology
Makeup of Population
Alliances Coalitions
Military Capabilities
National Will
Time
Physical Environment
External Organizations
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PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT

• Military forces are optimized for certain
  environments.
• Less complex and open environments favor the US.
• Enemies will try to use urban environments and
  other complex terrain to their advantage.

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NATURE AND STABILITYOF THE STATE

• How strong or how shaky.
• Where the real strength is.
• Who is in charge.
• Nature and aims of military campaign.
• Kinds of threat present.

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MAKEUP OF POPULATION

• Cultural, religious, ethnic.
• Failed and failing states.
• Devotion to a cause.
• Refugees and displaced persons.
• Urban environments (cities).

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ALLIANCES AND COALITIONS

• Political, economic, military, or cultural.
• Regional or global.
• Opponents can influence our coalitions.
• Add to military capability and broaden scale of
  military operations.
• Unpredictability.
• Nonaligned states.

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MILITARY CAPABILITIES

• The most critical and most complex factor.
• Foreign views
• US has overall technological advantage.
• Others use this as guide to optimizing their own
  capabilities and negating ours.
• Conventional against local or regional actors.
• Adaptive (asymmetric) when US becomes involved.

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MILITARY CAPABILITIES (Cont)

• Conventional
• US has significant advantage.
• Head-to-head fight unlikely until they develop
• High-end forces may have equality or temporary
  superiority.
• Adaptive (Asymmetric)
• Exploit US weaknesses.
• Technological surprise.
• Deliberate or opportunity-driven.

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INFORMATION

• Information-based society and information
  technology.
• Computers.
• Other information systems.
• Information warfare.
• Information systems attack.
• Psychological warfare.
• Deception.

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INFORMATION (Cont)

• Media and global information flow.
• Transparency (access to data).
• Sway public and political opinion.
• Situational awareness.
• Home field advantage.
• Commercial systems.
• Human networks.

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TECHNOLOGY

• Symmetric capabilities.
• Level the playing field.
• A few systems that are more advanced.

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TECHNOLOGY (Cont)

• Asymmetric counters to our high-tech systems.
• Less advanced systems in complex/urban settings.
• Selected niche areas.
• Low-cost, high-payoff new technologies.
• Upgrades and hybrids.
• Precision munitions.
• Technological surprise.

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EXTERNAL ORGANIZATIONS

• International humanitarian assistance.
• Manmade and natural disasters.
• Disease, hunger, and poverty.

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EXTERNAL ORGANIZATIONS(Cont)

• Growing in influence and power.
• Willingness to become involved in crisis
  situations.
• Stated and hidden interests/objectives.
• Favorable to US and provide assistance.
• Adverse to US or create conflict.
• Make mistakes.

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NATIONAL WILL

• People, government, and military.
• Objectives and duration of a conflict.
• Victory often depends on will.
• Attack the opponents national will and try to
  preserve your own.
• US national will as a vulnerabilitya strategic
  center of gravity.

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TIME

• Time drives decision making and operations.
• Opponents see time as being in their advantage.

• Adjust the nature of the conflict.
• Control US entry.
• Dictate the tempo.
• Outlast the US will to continue.

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ECONOMICS

• Haves and have-nots.
• Economic vs military superiority.
• Ability to buy military technology or to conduct
  prolonged operations.
• Regional and global relationships can result in
  military or political assistance.

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OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
Operational Environment

• Critical variables in operational environment.
• Foreign views of the United States.
• Military capabilities and threats.

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THREATS
Threat A potential adversary to the United
States.

• Capabilities.
• Intentions.

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THREATS IN TODAYS OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
Libya
SASO
MTW
SSC
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BOTTOM LINE

• The U.S. Army must be prepared to
• Go into any of these operational environments.
• Perform its full range of missions.
• In the face of a wide variety of possible
  threats.
• At same time, deal with third-party actors.

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Questions?
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