Title: Sally Obenski and Jim Farber
1Expanding the Use of Administrative Records
Methods, Applications, and Challenges
- Sally Obenski and Jim Farber
- U.S. Census Bureau
- CNSTAT Panel
- January 26, 2007
2Overview
- Overview and History
- Key technical breakthroughs
- Decennial and Survey Applications
- Medicaid Undercount Study
- Value of Integrated Data Sets
- Operational and Technical Constraints
- Policy Challenges
- Conclusions
3Mandate for Administrative Records Use
- Title 13, Section 6
- Use administrative records information as
extensively as possible in lieu of conducting
direct inquires - Census Bureau Strategic Plan
- Reduce reporting burden and minimize cost to
taxpayer by acquiring and developing high-quality
data from sources maintained by other government
and commercial entities
4Legal Guidance and Protections
- Title 13, U.S.C., Section 6, 9, and 214
- Title 26, U.S.C., Section 6103(j)
- Privacy Act of 1974
- Paperwork Reduction Act
- Government Information Security Reform Act
(GISRA) - E-Government Act of 2002, including
- Federal Information Security Management Act
(FISMA)
5Safeguarding Administrative Records
- Consistent Application of Policies
- To ensure that projects have the appropriate
legal authorization, comply with existing data
agreements, and provide adequate controls to
protect confidentiality and privacy - Administrative Controls
- Numerous levels of approval
- Need-to-know access
- Removal of identifiable information
- Administrative Records Tracking System
- Security and confidentiality training
6AR Program Evolution
Infrastructure investments allow new interagency
collaborations
Projects included AREX 2000 and the 1999 StARS
prototype
Survey launched to gather info on potential AR
files
Race Model Addresses Quality Concerns
Program begins
AR Research staff created
1996
July 1993
1999/2000
2002
2005
Early 1990s
mid 1990s
1999
2001
2004
July 1993
Today
Data Stewardship program begins
AR Test for 2000 Census
Statistical uses of AR conference held
PVS Increases Linking Capacity
Centralized program emerges
7StARS Provides Technical Infrastructure
- Person Address Databases consist of 7 national
files - IRS 1040 HUD TRACS IHS SSS
- IRS 1099 HUD PIC Medicare
CY2004 records Persons Addresses
Raw input 894 million 767 million
StARS 308 million 152 million
8Administrative Records Experiment Validated StARS
- Local test of AR census models conducted in 5
counties - Coverage issues similar to Census 2000
- Validated conformance of StARS to Census 2000
addresses persons - Improvements to StARS continue, including move to
more real-time redesign (E-StARS)
9NUMIDENT Provides National Reference File
- Social Security Administration (SSA) Numerical
Identification (Numident) Transaction file with
803 million records - Collapse to 431 million unique SSN records
- Usages
- Look-up file that provides demographic data
- Social Security Numbers (SSNs) verification/
validation
10Race and Hispanic Origin Model Rectified Quality
Concerns
- Initial weakness was dependence on race data from
SSAs SSN transaction file - Census 2000 records matched to SSN transaction
file - Model completed missing linkages
11Person Validation System (PVS) Increases Linking
Capacity
- Use master file of SSN/name/DOB as reference file
- Link addresses with SSN reference file
- Match incoming census or survey record using
name, address, DOB - Search within address first (high quality match)
- Search by name/DOB nationally if address search
not successful - Replaces SSN with unique identifier (PIK)
12Person Validation System (PVS) Increases Linking
Capacity
- Prepare Numident
- Prepare Incoming Data
- Run Verification Phase
- Run Geokey Search
- Run Name Search
- Apply PIKs
Verification
Geokey Search
Name Search
Final
13Implementing the ACS Provides Current Long Form
Data
- Designed to ameliorate constraints of decennial
long form data collection - Provides means for timely analyses and estimates
at small geographic areas - Provides means to push models based on less
granular surveys to smaller geographies
14AR Integral to Census Bureau Programs
- Internal Revenue Service (IRS) 1040
- Intercensal Estimates
- Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates
- CMS Medicare and Medicaid
- National Longitudinal Mortality Study
- Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates
- Small Area Health Insurance Estimates
- State Unemployment Insurance Files
- Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics
-
15Current Decennial Census Research
- Using AR to assign age, race, sex, Hispanic
Origin, when a record can be matched - Use AR to identify households with coverage
problems - Determine if commercially available other lists
can improve help build GQ frame
16Emerging Survey Improvement (1)
- Reducing ACS small area variance
- Use AR as controls to adjust survey weights right
after nonresponse adjustment - Preliminary research highly promising
- Obtaining characteristics on nonrespondents
- Compared StARS persons to CPS responders to
ensure consistency - Used StARS to obtain characteristics of
nonresponding households
17Emerging Survey Improvement (2)
- Reacting to disaster and other near-real time
requirements - Katrinas effect on the federal statistical
system and our lack of current response data
highlighted need - Acquired the USPS National Change of Address File
and FEMAs emergency management and flood
insurance files - Developing next generation StARS near real-time
measurements
18Medicaid Undercount Study (1)
- Survey estimates are important to policy research
- Examining the large discrepancy between survey
estimates and Medicaid enrollment figures - Multi-phased, interagency study, including
academia
19Medicaid Undercount Study (2)
- Phase I Examines quality and characteristics of
Medicaid and Medicare files (2000-2002) - Phase II Conducts national match of Medicaid
files to Current Population Survey ASEC
(2001-2002) - Phase III Conducts selected state matches of
Medicaid files to states in CPS ASEC - Phase IV Conducts national match of Medicaid
files to the National Health Interview Survey and
compares results
20Value of Integrated Data Sets
- Provides more robust and accurate picture
- Builds on strengths of both views while
controlling for their weaknesses - Provides better statistics for input into
simulations for predictions and funds
distribution - As the demand for data increases and budgets
decrease data re-use many be the only
cost-effective option
21Operational Constraints
- File Acquisition Complexities
- Complex Memoranda of Understanding
- State by state negotiation
- Differences in content definition, quality, and
program rules over time - File lag time
- MSIS (Federal Medicaid) lags by about 4 years
- Most lag for about a year
- Many applications require more near real-time
response
22Illustrative Examples
- Federal Filesyearly acquisitions
- IRS 1040, IRS 1099, CMS Medicare, Medicaid
- Federal Filesquarterly or monthly updates
- SSA Numident, USPS NCOA
- State Fileson as needed basis
- MD Food Stamps, MD TANF, MD Child Care Subsidy
- State Fileson a quarterly basis
- UI Wage and ES 202 (currently from 40 states)
- Commercial FilesINFOUSA
23Technical Constraints
- Obtaining the right data in the right format
- Varying rates of validation (e.g., Medicare 99,
Medicaid 91) - Coarseness of administrative data compared to
nuances of surveys - Measuring error
24Policy Challenges
- Communicating the benefits vs. privacy concerns
- Need for interagency teams to ensure accurate
results - Interagency agreements and mission
- Ownership of the integrated data sets
- Growth of possible disclosure risks
- Need for longitudinal data bases in order to find
an anonomyzed person at an address at a point in
time
25Overcoming the Constraints
- Resolving file acquisition issues may require OMB
or Congressional assistance - Lag time for general demographics addressed by
National Change of Address fileplanning move to
Enhanced StARS for more near real-time response - Standardized and centralized file acquisition
- New files in address search phase and SAS-based
matcher increased validation rates - Data Quality Standards team addressing measuring
error in integrated data sets - Increasing inter-agency efforts for generating
integrated data sets
26Conclusions
- New files and innovations leading to expansion
of AR uses - New challenges continue to arise
- Regular updating of billions of records to have a
near real-time response system - Effectively acquiring state-based records
- Understanding integrated data sets
- At incipience of a new generation of products,
services, and inter-agency opportunities
27Contact Information
- Sally M. Obenski
- Assistant Division Chief for Administrative
Records Applications - Data Integration Division
- U.S. Census Bureau
- Washington D.C. 20233-8100
- Email Sally.M.Obenski_at_Census.Gov
- Phone (301) 763-4044
- Cell (301) 873-7615