Simulation of Infectious Diseases Using Agent-Based Versus System Dynamics Models

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Simulation of Infectious Diseases Using
Agent-Based Versus System Dynamics Models

• Omar Alam

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Problem definition

• People contract diseases.
• Infected people can can infect healthy people.
• How to study this infection dynamics?

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Problem definition

• People contract diseases.
• Infected people can can infect healthy people.
• How to study this infection dynamics?
• Simulation of infection models

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Solution!

• AB Statecharts FSD using CBD

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Epidemic models
Source Deterministic Modeling of Infectious
Diseases Theory and Models. Trottier et al.
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SIR model
Source Deterministic Modeling of Infectious
Diseases Theory and Models. Trottier et al.
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SIR model

• Kermack-Mckendric model
• Used to study plaque in London (1665-1666), and
  Bombay in 1906.
• Cholera in London 1865

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SIR model
Source http//blog.iseesystems.com/stella-ithink/
limits-to-growth/
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SIR model
Beta infection rate Alpha infection period
Source http//jsxgraph.uni-bayreuth.de/wiki/index
.php/Epidemiology_The_SIR_model
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SIR model
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SIR model
Initial population
SN
SM2
SM1
S
Initial infected
I
IA
IN
Infection rate
RM
Recovery rate
R
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SIR model
Population 1000, Initial infection 4, Infection
period 3, infection rate 0.2
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Statecharts approach
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Statecharts approach architecture
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Statecharts approach architecture
Controller
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Statecharts approach architecture
Creates, initializes, and changes status
Controller
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Statecharts approach architecture
Creates, initializes, and changes status
Controller
Updates location
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Statecharts approach results
recovered
susceptible
infected
Population 1000, initial infection 4, infection
period 3
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Statecharts approach results
Population 500, initial infection 2, infection
period 3
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