Voter Turnout

1
Voter Turnout

• POLS 21 The American Political System

A citizen of America will cross the ocean to
fight for democracy, but won't cross the street
to vote in a national election. Bill Vaughan
2
Voter Turnout in 2012
In November 2012, 130 million votes were cast for
president.
Is that number high or low?
It depends on how turnout is measured
3
How Should We Measure Turnout?
Turnout statistics can use any of three
denominators

• The voting-age population (VAP) includes
  non-citizens and felons who are ineligible to
  vote, and excludes expatriate citizens who could
  legally vote overseas. VAP estimates provide the
  lowest turnout levels because they underestimate
  actual turnout.
• The voting-eligible population (VEP) starts with
  the voting-age population, then subtracts
  disenfranchised felons and non-citizens, and adds
  citizens from overseas. VEP estimates of voting
  turnout are higher than VAP estimates.
• The number of registered voters includes only
  those legally registered to vote. This provides
  the highest rate of voter turnout.

4
How Should We Measure Turnout?
130 million votes cast
VAP

54 voter turnout
241 million voting age citizens
130 million votes cast
VEP

59 voter turnout
222 million voting eligible citizens
130 million votes cast
REG

76 voter turnout
172 million registered voters
5
Turnout and the Census Bureau
The U.S. Census Bureau reports that 64 of U.S.
citizens voted in the 2004 presidential election
(up from 60 in 2000). Also according to the
Census Bureau, among those registered to vote,
89 (126 million) said they did.
Both figures come from the Current Population
Survey (CPS), and are therefore subject to both
sampling and non-sampling error. For instance,
the CPS estimate of overall turnout (125.7
million) differs from the official turnout, as
reported by the Clerk of the House (122.3
million). Why? Because people lie and
exaggerate in surveys, especially on something as
socially desirable as voting behavior
6
If voter turnout is low, compared to what?

• Compared to other countries
• Compared to historic rates of voter turnout in
  the United States

7
Voter Turnout in the United States Compared to
Other Countries
Source International IDEA, http//www.idea.int/vt
/survey/
8
Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections, 1828-2012
9
Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections, 1828-2012
The 26th Amendment grants 18-20 year olds the
right to vote
The 19th Amendment grants women the right to vote
10
Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections, 1828-2012
11
How Should We Measure Turnout?
12
Increasing Voter Turnout

• OPTION 1 Do nothing. Once we use the
  appropriate measure (e.g., VEP), there is no
  problem.
• OPTION 2 Do nothing. Turnout may be low, but
  we dont want uneducated, uninformed people
  voting anyway.
• OPTION 3 Do nothing. Voter and non-voters have
  similar policy preferences, so it makes little
  difference
• OPTION 4 Do something!
• Voting by mail
• Voting early
• Internet voting
• Election day registration

13
Does Low Voter Turnout Matter?
Should we prefer a

• Smaller, more highly educated, less
  representative electorate?
• Larger, less well educated, more representative
  electorate?

14
Making It Too Easy to Vote?
Jeff Jacoby, a staff writer for the Boston Globe,
wrote the following essay in July,
1996 Universal suffrage? Im for that. Voting
is right, not a privilege? Absolutely. No
unreasonable barriers to voter registration? I
agree. Government workers should go out of their
way to sign up welfare recipients to vote? Hold
it. Welfare recipients are people who dont
work, dont pay taxes and dont support
themselves. Of course there are exceptions, but
as a grouplets face itthey are among the least
educated, least productive, least responsible
adults in America. Theyre also among the least
likely to be interested in elections or to follow
public debates. If in addition they dont bother
to vote, we ought to be grateful. Why would
anyone want to coax them into registering? No
one is disenfranchised in this country. Unlike
the days of old, there are no poll taxes,
literacy tests, gender barriers or property
requirements to come between any citizen and the
voting booth. If U.S. elections are marked by
chronically low turnout, it is not because voters
are kept away. They stay away. Some are
apathetic, some are ignorant, some are simply
self-centered. Why badger people to register?
What would they bring to an election? No welfare
caseworkerno state employee, periodshould have
to spoonfeed voting rights to anyone, least of
all people on the dole. If they can figure out
how to get food stamps, they can figure out how
to get registered. They choose not to? So be
it. American democracy wont suffer.
15
(No Transcript)
16
Increasing Voter Turnout

• OPTION 1 Do nothing. Once we use the
  appropriate measure (e.g., VEP), there is no
  problem.
• OPTION 2 Do nothing. Turnout may be low, but
  we dont want uneducated, uninformed people
  voting anyway.
• OPTION 3 Do nothing. Voter and non-voters have
  similar policy preferences, so it makes little
  difference
• OPTION 4 Do something!
• Voting by mail
• Voting early
• Internet voting
• Election day registration

17
Why Dont People Vote?

• Institutional context
• Motor-Voter
• Compulsory voting
• Election Day registration
• Voting by mail
• Internet voting
• Motivational strategies
• Personal canvassing
• Social pressure
• Enduring personal traits and
  psychological orientations
• Socialization through programs such as Kids
  Voting USA

18
How Does Motor-Voter Work?
Widely known as Motor-Voter, the National Voter
Registration Act of 1993 is designed to encourage
voter registration and to remove discriminatory
and unfair obstacles to voter registration. As
of January 1, 1995, the law requires states to
register voters for federal elections in three
specific ways, in addition to any other
procedures they use currently for registering
voters

• Simultaneous application for drivers license and
  voter registration
• Mail application for voter registration
• Application in person at certain government
  agencies, including public assistance offices and
  agencies that provided services to people with
  disabilities

19
Has Motor-Voter Increased Ballot Fraud?

• "Operation Big Vote" in the St. Louis area was
  used by Democrats to register more
  African-American voters and get them to the
  voting booth on Election Day. They delivered
  3,800 voter registration cards to the St. Louis
  Elections Board on the February 7, 2001, nearly
  all of them fraudulent. Many of them sought to
  register prominent people, dead or alive - as
  well as at least three deceased aldermen and a
  dog.
• In 2000, the state of Florida hired a private
  firm named ChoicePoint to cleanse its voter
  rolls of felons who were ineligible to vote. The
  company produced a list of 8,000 names to remove
  from the registration rolls, only to find later
  that none had committed felonies, only
  misdemeanors. Critics argued the process unfairly
  targeted African-American voters.

20
The Problem with Motor-Voter
Voter Registration
Voter Turnout
Motivation and/or interest in politics
21
(No Transcript)
22
Voter Turnout as a Political Strategy
With narrow margins of victory, and an electorate
split evenly down the middle, political parties
increasingly battle over voter turnout.
23
(No Transcript)
24
Close Elections Mean Turnout Matters

• In 2000, George W. Bush won the state of Florida
  by just 537 votes (0.01)
• In Oregon, the presidential election that year
  was decided by 6,745 votes (0.44)
• In Iowa, by 4,144 votes (0.31)
• In Wisconsin, by 5,708 votes (0.22)
• In New Mexico, by 366 votes (0.06)

25
Close Elections Mean Turnout Matters

• In 2004, George W. Bush won Wisconsin by 11,384
  votes (0.38)
• In New Hampshire, by 9,274 votes (1.37)
• In New Mexico, by 5,988 votes (0.79)
• In Iowa, by 10,059 votes (0.67)

Tight states in 2008 North Carolina, Indiana,
Florida, Ohio
26
(No Transcript)
27
(No Transcript)
28
Increasing Voter Turnout

• Voting by mail
• Voting early
• Internet voting
• Election day registration

29
Vote Mobilization
Efforts to increase voter turnout are often
called Get-Out-the-Vote drives, or GOTV.
30
Obama goes door-to-door in Iowa

DES MOINES, Iowa - Democrat knocked on doors in
the Iowa capital Saturday talking up his
opposition to the war in Iraq. At one stop,
Obama got a warm welcome from a woman who said
the visit might persuade her to attend the
Democratic presidential caucus in January, "I'm
flabbergasted that he's here knocking on my
neighborhood door," Jody Degard told reporters
after the visit from the Illinois senator.
31
Voter Turnout as a Political Strategy
With narrow margins of victory, and an electorate
split evenly down the middle, political parties
increasingly battle over voter turnout.
32
Has Motor-Voter Increased Ballot Fraud?
Nashawna Prude, 9, with a family photo that
includes her grandmother, Kimberly, second from
left, jailed for more than a year for voter
fraud. Kimberly Prude was convicted of voting
while on probation, an offense that she
attributes to confusion over eligibility.
33
Vote Suppression

• Ballot and machine shortages on Election Day in
  selected precincts.
• Delays in sending absentee ballots.
• Vote challenges.
• Disqualification of provisional ballots.
• Purges of voter registration lists (e.g., voter
  caging).
• Misdirection of voters to polling places.
• Negative advertising designed to undermine
  morale.