The marine foresight panel

1
HOW LARGE IS THE POTENTIAL WAVE ENERGY RESOURCE?
The marine foresight panels energies from the
sea task force concluded that both wave and tidal
stream have the potential to supply a major part
of Britain's energy needs
But how much power is there and how much of this
power can realistically tapped?
The resource is clearly large with the ETU
estimating that 50TWh/year could be obtained
offshore and 2.1TWh/year near shore
Paul Nichols 24th February 2005
2
WHAT ASSUMPTIONS TO ESTIMATE THE POTENTIAL ENERGY
PRODUCED BY WAVE POWER?
1) Offshore projects will be the only
commercially viable ones with near shore
providing niche markets only
2) Pelamis will be the first commercially viable
offshore technology due to the funding it has and
its stage of development
3)The output of one pelamis will grow to 1MW and
they will be installed in 30MW farms
4) Any future technologies brought onto the
market will be at least as good as pelamis
5) The load factor for wave energy will be about
35 by 2050 but currently is 25
3
WHAT ASSUMPTIONS TO ESTIMATE THE POTENTIAL ENERGY
PRODUCED BY WAVE POWER?
FURTHER ASSUMPTONS ABOUT THE PRODUCTION OF WAVE
FARMS AND PRODUCTION TIME SCALE
2010 first commercial pelamis farm installed for
testing
2015 first major wave farms developed
2020 more wave farms installed after success of
first farms
2025 increased growth in pelamis farms as
technology becomes mainstream and potential
installation of other new technologies
2030 steady growth in wave farms to help meet
renewable obligations
4
ESTIMATES OF NUMBER OF INSTALLED WAVE FARMS
Using my assumptions I have created the following
estimates of the number of wave farms that will
be installed
5
OPTIMISTIC AND PESSEMISTIC ESTIMATES OF OUTPUT
FROM WAVE POWER
6
conclusion
Wave power over the next 25 years will become
commercially viable and progress will be made in
the development of wave farms
The wave farms will produce a very small
percentage of the renewables quota in the next 25
years but after the next 25 years they are likely
to become a much larger player in renewable
energy market as they will have gone through
there initiation period where faults can be dealt
with and many lessons learned
The development of future wave farms though Is
very reliant on funds to allow it to progress
through the research and design stage and onto a
commercial basis
With the development of wave farms there is
likely to be opposition from the shipping
industry and potentially some environmental
concerns about the habitats they are placed in
However the environmental benefits of using wave
power should not be underestimated