Criminal Psychology

1
Criminal Psychology

• Chapter 6
• From Dangerousness to Risk Assessment
• Talbot
• Kellogg Community College

2
Risk Assessment - Dangerousness

• The process of conceptualizing various hazards in
  order to make the judgments about their
  likelihood and the need for various preventative
  measures.

3
Three types of Predictions

• Clinical Prediction prediction based on
  clinical experience.
• Actuarial Prediction prediction is based on a
  statistical scheme or formula.
• Anamnestic Prediction prediction is based upon
  how a particular person has acted in the past.

4
Risk Assessment - Dangerousness

• The process of conceptualizing various hazards in
  order to make the judgments about their
  likelihood and the need for various preventative
  measures.
• Dangerousness
• What is it?
• Dangerousness as a dichotomous variable.
• Statistical measures and correlations.
• Mental illness and violence.

5
Risk Assessment - Violence

• Violence Defined?
• Force/ Energy
• Types of violence
• Sexual Offending?
• Domestic Violence
• Workplace Violence
• School Violence

6
Risk Assessment - Violence

• Continuum
• Tools for Risk Assessment
• Psychopathy Checklist Revised
• Violence Risk Appraisal Guide
• Rapid Risk Assessment of Sexual Recidivism
• Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide
• JACA Principle

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Three types of predictors

• Static Predictors features of an individual
  that are not changeable (e.g. alcohol abuse,
  major mental disorders).
• Dynamic Predictors things that change over time
  and situation (e.g. psychotic symptoms, anger
  control, neg. emotions).
• Risk Management Predictors focus on the nature
  of the situation or environment in which the
  person lives or will live (e.g. lack of
  supervision, lack of support, access to weapons).

8
Risk AssessmentPredict the Prediction

• What is it? Elements of Prediction
• Measurability How measurable is the outcome?
• Vantage Are you in a position to view the
  indicators?
• Context Is the context of the situation clear
  to you?
• Imminence How soon is the event in question?
• Experience Do you have specific experience with
  the topic?
• Comparable Events Are there any on which to
  base the judgment?
• Objectivity Can you consider either outcome?
• Investment To what degree are you vested in the
  outcome?
• Replicability Can you pre-test the situation?
• Knowledge Do you have accurate information
  about the issue?
• PINs (Pre-Incident Indicators) Do you have
  access to any reliable PINS?

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Why do it?

• Makes a prediction of an individuals future
  acts. Consistent with psychologys role in a
  variety of settings and self proclaimed goals.

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How do we do it?

• JACA
• Justification
• Alternatives/ Options
• Consequences
• Good
• Bad
• Access

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Justification - 1st hurdle

• Does the individual have subjective
  justification? Or have they justified a reason
  that they should do the aggressive act?
• I warned her what would happen and she did it
  anyway.

12
Alternatives

• Do they have options other than acting out
  aggressively?
• i.e. I am calling my lawyer and will have your
  job vs. No one can help now!
• The second is a much more threatening response.

13
Consequences

• Does the individual identify any rewards or
  negative consequences to being aggressive or
  violent?
• Examples of concerning responses would include I
  can do jail time. or I might get caught but it
  would feel good!

14
Access

• Does the individual have access to carrying out
  the threat?
• We typically assume access is present. Just
  because we dont think they will actually build a
  nuclear bomb, they might Google search and find
  they have everything for a pipe bomb.

15
Threat Level Determination

• 0 elements present no threat
• 1 element present mild threat
• 2 elements present moderate threat
• 3 elements present severe threat
• 4 elements present profound or imminent threat.

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Risk Assessment Guidance Paper Scoring Rubric

• For this assignment the student will review the
  threatening letter/ case study provided in course
  information. The student will then prepare a
  written assessment of the level of risk or threat
  present (mild, moderate, severe, or profound). A
  variety of threat assessment tools are available,
  however the one to be used for this assignment is
  the JACA principle developed by Gavin DeBecker. A
  full explanation can be found in his book, The
  Gift of Fear and is summarized in the PP
  presentation located in BB under course
  information.
• This assignment should be written as a letter to
  the administration of the company for which Laura
  works (ESL Electronics), and who we are assuming,
  provided you with this letter and the question,
  Should we be worried?. Laura is an employee who
  was given the provided letter from Rick, another
  employee. 
• Your response should
• identify and explain the tool (with proper
  citations) which was employed,
• summarize the case study or letter reviewed,
• describe the JACA principle (in understandable
  and general terms)
• identify how various parts of the letter fit or
  do not fit the JACA principles and specifically
  which ones,
• and determine the current level of threat present
  (in your opinion). Back this determination up
  with information from the letter/ case study and
  risk assessment used.
• A description of Risk Assessment and it
  benefits and limitations should also be
  included. 
• 2 4 pages
• Scoring Rubric
•  Appropriate choice and use of Assessment Tool
  25 pts
• Appropriate Discussion/ Description of the
  Assessment Tool 25 pts
• Description of Risk Assessment (benefits
  limitations) 25 pts
• Clear and concise reporting of final assessed
  risk 25 pts

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Case Study
18
Intuition

• What if you dont have the information to perform
  a standardized risk assessment?
• Fear standard Intuition
• DeBecker recommends one follow their gut feeling
  when other information is not available. Gift of
  Fear
• Why is it not used?
• Why and when might it be encouraged?

19
Februrary 16th, 1988

• "... The shit has hit the fan... all because you
  thought I'm a joke and refuse to listen or
  understand that I am gravely serious."
• 18 months after the writing of the letter, Rick
  Farley entered ESL armed, shooting 11 (including
  Ms. Black) and killing 7. This was the day prior
  to the date he was to appear in court for a
  restraining order filed by Laura Black.
• Before he surrendered, Lieutenant Grijalva said,
  Mr. Farley had expressed remorse about the
  shootings and said ''I'm not crazy - I know I
  will die as a result of this.''