Climate Futures for Tasmania

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Climate Futures for Tasmania
Steve Wilson TIAR/School of Agricultural
Science University of Tasmania
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• The world in 2040
• Predicted
• higher carbon dioxide
• higher average temperature
• higher average rainfall
• higher average humidity
• Unknown
• local climate and weather
• physical and economic impacts
• opportunities

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GCM Temperature Prediction to 2070
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Australia in 2030 Rainfall decrease 2-5 in the
south mainly in winter and spring. No change in
the north. Evapotranspiration increase Australia
wide of 2 Drought various measures but
projected to increase frequency and intensity
Temperature overall 0.9oC, greater inland less
on coast. Increased frequency of extreme
temperature days Wind generally increased wind
flow, but projected decrease in summer at 40oS
Drivers El Nino to become drier, SAM positive
shift causing weaker westerly wind flows
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Devil in the detail? Queensland Fruit fly
winter soil temperature threshold for pupal
survival is unknown (9.7oC for Med-fly) Wine
grapes wine quality and summer temperatures
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Increasing soil temperatures
Real data for a forgotten environment?
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The range for Queensland fruitfly air
temperature? rainfall? soil temperature?
From Meats (2004)
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Wine quality decrease in traditional areas?
more suitable land in Tasmania
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Background

• Previous study for Hydro Tasmania, results
  published 2005
• One model extended to 2040 with a focus on
  catchment inflow data

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• Tasmania in 2040
• Predicted
• Rainfall
• no change to slight decrease in annual total
• increase in winter and early spring
• Temperature
• insignificant to small increase in mean daily
  maxima
• small increase in mean daily minima
• significant (1oC) increase in winter-early summer
  minima
• Wind and evaporation
• small increases in both wind speed and potential
  evaporation
• Unknown
• frost frequency and intensity
• frequency, duration and distribution of extended
  rain events

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This Project

• ACE CRC in collaboration with others
• 3 year project, building on the work undertaken
  for Hydro Tasmania
• Delivering results applicable to range of
  Tasmanian stakeholders
• Producing results on a range of possible futures,
  out to 2100

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Structure

• Fine-scale (10-15 km resolution) climate
  projections for Tasmania under a range of
  accepted greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Model
  outputs will be tailored for specific
  applications
• Water - catchments and reservoirs
• Extreme events
• Climate impacts on agriculture and other
  industries

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Outputs

• Assessments of the range of climate conditions
  likely to be experienced across Tasmania over the
  next 90 years (to 2100)
• Reports on future projections for key variables
  identified as important by end users
• Climate model outputs provided for input into
  operational models by collaborating end-users
• Raw model results for all estimated variables
  will be stored and available on-line for further
  research or application.

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Water

• Sample information runoff and catchment yields,
  evaporation rates
• Research providers Hydro Tasmania, DPIW, ACE CRC
• Primary End Users Hydro Tasmania, water
  authorities, local government, agriculture,
  forestry

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Extreme Events

• Sample information fire weather, storm surges,
  high intensity rainfall events, extreme wind
  events
• Research providers SES, CSIRO, BOM, ACE CRC
• Primary End Users SES, Local Government, Aurora,
  Transend, Fire Service

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General Climate Impacts

• Sample data seasonal and spatial rainfall
  distribution, seasonal maximum, minimum and
  average air and soil temperatures, evaporation
  and wind flow.
• Research providers TIAR, DPIW, CSIRO, BOM, ACE
  CRC
• Primary End Users Agriculture, Forestry, Local
  Government, Hydro, Aurora, Transend, SES, DPIW

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Outcomes

• Industries, government utility and services
  agencies and communities informed about likely
  climate conditions in coming decades
• A database for planning adaptation strategies
• Advanced warning of key vulnerabilities to
  climate change for risk mitigation
• Identification and awareness of industry
  opportunities and the capacity to plan to take
  maximum advantage of likely changes in climate.

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Timing

• Primary analysis
• All new climate prediction model runs complete by
  end 2009
• Secondary analysis
• Preliminary analysis/modelling within the three
  components using output from the existing Hydro
  Tasmania model in 2008
• Incorporation of new model outputs into secondary
  models and vulnerability/opportunity analyses in
  years 2 and 3

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TIAR activities

• Links with other agencies and organisations
• Links with community - extension and information
  flow
• Outputs available for all current research and
  development programs
• Climate change as a research priority area -
  impacts, adaptation and opportunities
• Funding for new research programs
• Beyond 2010?