Agrophysical Research Institute

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Agrophysical Research Institute
www.agrophys.ru
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ARI Working Group of the ADAGIO
Dr.Mikhail V. Nikolaev is the responsible person
within the ADAGIO project Research area
Adaptation of cultivation practice to climatic
and environmental changes development of
agroecological analogue method in relation to
climate change vulnerability and adaptation
assessments
Prof. Igor B.Uskov is an expert Research area
Agro-climatic modeling including soil- plant-
atmosphere system modeling various types of
agricultural amelioration microclimate control
influence of climate change on microclimate Dr.Dmi
triy V. Nasonov is an expert Research area
microclimate of agricultural field statistical
modeling and simulation by using stochastic
weather generator applied to climate scenarios
GIS presentation Olga V. Kononenko is a post
graduate student Research area Studying the
energy-caused synoptic processes such as dust
storms, their climatology and predictability Galin
a V. Danilova is a post graduate student Research
area Application of the analogue modeling to
studying the accelerated successions in plant
communities under climate change
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Relevant Agrophysical Research Institute planned
targetsunderScientific Programmes of Russian
Academy of Agricultural Sciences
2007 Target entitled Design for regionalization
of adaptation measures and strategies for
agroecosystems sustainability in conditions of
changing climate. 2006 Target entitled
Landscape related response of cereal ecosystems
to climate change in Russia and options for
adaptation. Result Assessments based on the
analyses of potential changes in climatic
resources and possible responses of cultivation
practice in order to maintain high and stable
crop yields in different landscape zones. 2005a
Task entitled To evaluate the effects of climate
change on potential distribution of cereal crops
within cultivable area of Russia. Result
Possible shift in distribution of cereal crops
within cultivable area by 2020-2030 2005b Task
entitled To make the agroclimatological
background for landscape adapted agricultural
systems planning within North-Western territory
of Russia, the limitations at current climate
regimes and environmental risks under climate
change taken into consideration. Result
Modification of agroecological analogue method to
defining the areas vulnerable to potential risk
by pests, diseases and weeds with warming
process. 2004 Task entitled To evaluate
possible response of crop management practice to
climate change in different agroecological
regions of Russia. Result Possible changes in
optimum fertilization and irrigation rate as well
as timing of farm operations in different
agroecological regions by 2020-2030. 2003 Common
Target entitled Theoretical background and
methodology for field experiments for further
application to landscape adapted agricultural
systems planning changes, in climate taken into
consideration. ( 36 months duration )
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List of relevant books (monographs)
Uskov I.B. et al. 2008 (Authors collective of
Agrophysical Research Institute) Agrometeorologic
al factors of potential productivity. (Version
under editing, total volume 586p. in
Russian,resume in English) Nikolaev M.V. and
V.P.Yakushev 2004 Part 3.2 Adaptation of the
agrotechnologies and rational distribution of
field crops in a changing climate. p.274-299
In Consequences of global climate change for
agricultural sector of economy. Russian Academy
of Agricultural Sciences issue, Moscow, 331p. (in
Russian,resume in English) Uskov I.B.
(Eds.Yakushev et al.) 2004 Recommendations for
landscape adapted agricultural systems planning
in the North-Western territory of Russia.
Agrophysical Research Institute issue,
St.Petersburg, 170p.(in Russian) Nikolaev M.V.
1994 Present climate and crop yield
variability. Gidrometeoizdat, St.Petersburg,
200p. (in Russian,resume in English) Kurtener
D.A. and I.B.Uskov 1988 Control of
agricultural field microclimate.
Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad, 263p. (in
Russian,resume in English) Kurtener D.A. and
I.B.Uskov 1982 Climatic factors and the heat
transfer in field and controlled environments.
Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad, 231p. (in
Russan,resume in English) Gidrometeoizdat is
the Official Hydrometeorological Public House of
Russian Federation/ USSR
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List of relevant papers
Nikolaev M.V. 2007 Adaptation of cropping
systems to climate change in Russia .An example
for cool temperate and temperate regions.
Proceedings of IAMFE Regional Conference of
Nordic Countries Field Experiments for
Sustainable Agriculture in the Changing World.,
October 23-25 2006, St.Petersburg, Russia,
IAMFE issue, p.68-71 Nikolaev M.V. 2007
Climate change effects on cereal cropping in
Russia and options for adaptation. Slovak
Meteorological Journal, Vol.1, p. (
Nikolaev M.V. 2006 Impact of climate change on
cereal cropping systems in Russia and options for
adaptation. Proceedings of Conference Abstracts
Bioclimatology and Water in the Land,
International Bioclimatological Conference,
September 11-14 2006, Strecno, Slovak Republic.
Comenius University issue, Bratislava ) Nikolaev
M.V. 2007 Cereal crop zonation in a changing
climate. In book Physical, chemical and
climatic factors of land productivity.
St.Petersburg State Technical University issue,
p.307-319 (in Russian) Nikolaev M.V.and
V.A.Semyonov 2007 Agroclimatological background
of the North-Western territory of Russia for
landscape adapted agricultural systems planning.
In book Research and investigations for
empirical basis of landscape adapted agricultural
systems planning. St.Petersburg State Technical
University issue, p.14-23 (in Russian) Nikolaev
M.V. 2007 Application of spatial analogs method
to evaluation of climate change impacts on
agroecological conditions in the North-Western
territory of Russia. In book Research and
investigations for empirical basis of landscape
adapted agricultural systems planning.
St.Petersburg State Technical University issue,
p.147-153 (in Russian) Eitzinger J., Kubu G.,
Lemeshko N.A., Minin V.B., Nikolaev M.V., Toude
J.A., Uskov I.B. 2004 Modern methodology in
agrometeorology and soil hydrology for
sustainable land management in Austria and
Russia. Proceedings of the International
Conference and Exhibition on Mechanization of
Field Experiments (IAMFE/Russia 2004), 5-9 July
2004, St.Petersburg- Pushkin, Russia, p.218-225
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TASKS
FACING TO
ARI WORKING GROUP OF THE ADAGIO
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Agrophysical Research Institute (in cooperation
with State Hydrological Institute) will
contribute the following activities

• To promote dissemination of the ADAGIO advances
  and know-how in the aim of actual/potential
  adaptation of agriculture to climate change to
  further application in agricultural
  decision-making at different regions of Russia
• To instruct and learn agricultural managers and
  farmers as well as practical experts of local
  agricultural research centers on the use of
  appropriate and feasible potential adaptation
  measures and technologies in the framework of
  training course under ARI in the post-harvest
  period
• To consult agricultural enterprisers and farmers
  in the adaptation measures applying, the
  environmental and economic risks under climate
  change taken into consideration
• To recommend feasible adaptation strategies to
  agricultural policy-makers at regional/local
  levels as well as regionalization of know-how for
  further practical use
• Monitoring of the use efficiency of adaptation
  measures and technologies in Russias regions to
  further application in agricultural sector of
  economy
• Collection, processing and analysis of
  information integration of the ADAGIO project
  results, e.g. in the form of Recommendations
  for adaptation of agriculture in Russias regions
  at environmental risk under climate change
• In this connection, the climatological design for
  regionalization of adaptation options within
  European part of Russia is illustrated. Regional
  adaptation measures and technologies at current
  climate regimes and with climate change are
  presented as well.

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Climatological design for regionalization of
adaptation measures and technologies in
agricultural sector of economy within European
part of Russia ( Nikolaev M.V., 2007)
Region European part of Russia north 61o
n.1.(Type of climate cool temperate,
humid/sub-humid) North-Western Russia (Type of
climate temperate, humid) Central Russia (Type
of climate temperate, humid/sub-humid) Chernozem
Centre and Middle Volga (Type of climate
temperate, semi-arid) Lower Volga and southern
Pre-Ural (Type of climate temperate,
semi-arid/arid) Northern Caucasus (Type of
climate warm temperate, semi-arid/sub-humid)
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Potential adaptation measures and technologies at
current climate regimes and under climate
change(Nikolaev and Uskov, 2007) North-Western
Russia(Type of climate Temperate, humid)
Potential measures at current climate regimes with different durations Limitations at current climate regimes (vulnerabilities) Limitations at current climate regimes (vulnerabilities) Limitations at current climate regimes (vulnerabilities) Limitations under climate change (vulnerabilities) Limitations under climate change (vulnerabilities) Limitations under climate change (vulnerabilities) Examples for feasible adaptation measures and technologies
Potential measures at current climate regimes with different durations Agroclimatic Weather Agro-ecological Agroclimatic Weather Agro-ecological Examples for feasible adaptation measures and technologies
Crop breeding Changes in sowing dates Crop rotation Fertilization Soil liming Drainage Crop insurance For wintering water logging, rotting out For growing season lodging Cold waves Wet spells Soil acidization Winter heavy precipitation Water logging (increase) Rotting out (increase) Cold waves (decrease) Wet spells (decrease) Soil acidization (decrease) Diseases, pests, weeds (increase) Plant breeding for highyielders of sillage maize Plant breeding for fiber flax Plant breeding for rape Plant breeding for sillage sunflower Plant breeding for clover varieties Switching from early season cultivars to mid-season cultivars Improvement of crop protection More diseases resistant cultivars More lodging resistant cultivars Chemical amelioration Change in optimum fertilization
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Potential adaptation measures and technologies at
current climate regimes and under climate
change(Nikolaev and Uskov, 2007) Lower Volga
and Southern Pre-Ural(Type of climate
Temperate, semi-arid / arid)
Potential measures at current climate regimes with different durations Limitations at current climate regimes (vulnerabilities) Limitations at current climate regimes (vulnerabilities) Limitations at current climate regimes (vulnerabilities) Limitations under climate change (vulnerabilities) Limitations under climate change (vulnerabilities) Limitations under climate change (vulnerabilities) Examples for feasible adaptation measures and technologies
Potential measures at current climate regimes with different durations Agroclimatic Weather Agro-ecological Agroclimatic Weather Agro-ecological Examples for feasible adaptation measures and technologies
Crop breeding Mulching Fertilization Snow retention Snow ploughing Irrigation Shelter belts Crop insurance For wintering autumn drought, frost killing For growing season droughts Heat waves Dust storms Wind erosion Soil salinization (partly) Frost killing (decrease) Drought periods (increase) Dry winds (increase) Heat waves (increase) Dust storms (increase) Aridization Plant breeding for wheat durum Plant breeding for hard winter wheat Plant breeding for maize hybrids Plant breeding for millet Plant breeding for sorghum Switching from summer crops to winter crops Drought tolerant cultivars Change in optimum fertilization Change in irrigation rates Crops use less water Snowhedges New snow ploughing aggregats Wind break belts
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List of end-users

• Farmers and agricultural managers of Leningrad
  region (e.g. farm Rapti,high input level)
• Practical experts of regional/local agricultural
  research centres from different parts of Russia
  (in the framework of training course)
• Experts of NW Russias Research Centre for crop-
  and seed breeding
• Experts of Agrochemical Service of Leningrad
  region
• Members of Interregional Public Organization
  Association for assistance of field experiments
  and investigations
• Specialists of Agricultural Research institutions
  and Centres
• Teachers of Universities (agricultural,
  hydrometeorological and economic/financial
  profiles)

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List of involved institutions

• NW Russias Agricultural Research Institute
  BELOGORKA
• ALL Russian Institute of Plant Industry VIR
• NW Russias Research Centre of Russian Academy of
  Agricultural Sciences
• All Russian Institute of Crop Protection VIZR
• Academy of Management and Agribusiness of
  Non-Chernozem zone of Rus.Fed.
• St .Petersburg State Agrarian University
• Russian State Hydrometeorological University
• Russian State University of Economics and Finance

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Planned meetings
Lecture series in the framework of Seminar of
agricultural decision makers of the Southern
district of Leningrad region (April,
2007) Lecture series in the framework of
National School for Young Researchers/Practical
Experts on Precision Agriculture Training course
under Agrophysical Research Institute,
St.Petersburg, 24-26 September, 2007
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Thank you