ArcView Tools for FTSA

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U.S. EPA NCEA/Global Change Research Program
Changing Climate and Land Use in the
Mid-Atlantic Modeling Drivers and Consequences
in Economics, Hydrology, Geomorphology, and
Ecology Hydrologic Component
Glenn E. Moglen University of Maryland November
12, 2002
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Outline

• Spatially Explicit Land Use Modeling
• Peak Flow Modeling
• TR-20/TR-55
• Continuous Streamflow Modeling
• Regression Approach?
• Low Flow Modeling
• Continuous Streamflow Modeling
• Regression Approach
• Items in Flux
• Water Quality Modeling
• Stream Gaging
• Can you spell I-C-C?

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Northwest Branch Watershed
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Temporal Change in Aggregate Land Use
Distribution
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Tracking Land Use Change In Time AND Space

• Reference Moglen and Beighley, JAWRA February,
  2002.

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Land Use Change Animation

• Northwest Branch Watershed 1938 - 2000.
• Based on methods presented in Moglen and
  Beighley, JAWRA February, 2002

If you would like to see this again http//www.en
ce.umd.edu/moglen/WWproject.html
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Peak Flow Modeling

• TR-55 Graphical Method (see Moglen and
  Beighley, JAWRA February, 2002.

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Peak Flow Modeling

• For larger watersheds where channel processes or
  reservoirs add significant delays or attenuation
  of flood we use composite of TR-55 and TR-20
  simulations

From Sources to first downstream point TR-20
point
In between TR-20 simulated points
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Continuous Streamflow Modeling A Simple Model

• Storages
• Fluxes
• Issues
• Implications

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Sample Simulation Northwest Branch
Historic/1994-2092
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A Different Approach Evolution of annual 7-day
low flow event

• Regression Approach Low Flows in NWB

Q7 (m3/s)
Year
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Items In Flux Water Quality Modeling

• Not much progress to dateFocus of Years 3 4 of
  WWS project
• Existing Models
• HSPF
• SWMM
• Conceptual/Simple Model
• Need to model land use change Dynamically

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Items in Flux Stream Gaging Activities

• Installed 5 gages of our own across all study
  watersheds, scales, land uses.
• Have access to data from 3 USGS stream gages at
  outlets of study watersheds.
• Have access to data from 2 Montgomery County
  stream gages.

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Items in Flux The Inter-County Connector and our
Watersheds
ICC
Northwest Branch
Paint Branch
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Summary / Future Directions

• Issues addressed or with clear approach
• Land use change modeling
• Peak flow modeling
• Continuous streamflow modeling
• Low Flow Modeling
• Issues in Flux
• Water Quality Modeling
• Stream Gaging
• ICC as a wildcard