Title: 2004 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast for Non-Geosynchronous Orbits (NGSO)
12004 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast
for Non-Geosynchronous Orbits (NGSO)
John Sloan Federal Aviation Administration Associ
ate Administrator for Commercial Space
Transportation (FAA/AST) john.sloan_at_faa.gov May
20, 2004
2Introduction
Worldwide Commercial Launches
- NGSO forecast includes payloads open to
internationally competed launch services
procurement and other commercially sponsored
payloads - Payloads that generate launch demand
- Typically no secondary or dummy payloads
3Methodology
Review business and financial progress, satellite
specifications, launch plans, and overall market
status
Step 3
Step 1
Step 2
Conduct interviews with companies, the FCC and
survey launch providers on near-term manifest
Review data with companies, update model, write
report
Step 7
4Baseline Satellite Forecast
106 satellites 2004-2013 average of 10.6 per
year 32 increase compared to last year 80
in 2003, 151 in 2001 forecast
2004 Baseline Satellite Projection
- 2004-2013 by sector
- 55 International
- Scienctific/Other
- 30 Telecommunications
- 15 Commercial
- Remote Sensing
5Baseline Launch Forecast
51 total launches 2004-2013 Launch Demand is the
same as last years forecast 51 launches in
2003, 63 in 2002 forecast
- Average of 5.1 launches
- per year
- About 2 medium-heavy
- launch vehicles
- About 3 small launch
- vehicles
- 2004-2013 by sector
- Intl Scienctific/Other
- 33 launches
- Remote Sensing
- 12 launches
- Telecommunications
- 6 launches
6Near-Term Manifest
Based on announced satellites as of May 12, 2003
7Near-Term Satellite Mass
Based on announced satellites as of May 12, 2004
8Baseline Forecast 2004-2013
- Near-term satellites and launches higher than far
term - Telecommunications (ORBCOMM and Globalstar)
- Commercial Remote Sensing
- Far-term International Scientifice/Other
satellites are estimates based on historical
activity - Small science satellites appear rapidly,
difficult to forecast
9Trends in NGSO Forecast
- Return of Telecommunications
- More favorable business climate for ORBCOMM and
Globalstar - Steady customer growth
- Debt-free operations
- New, committed private investors
- Too early to forecast Iridium, Globalstar
second-generation systems - Second-generation system strategies
- Launch on need replace first-generation
satellites when they fail - Spread costs over time earn money while
deploying - Bulk of market remains international science
satellites - More multiple-manifest small launches
- Russian Dnepr, Cosmos
- Digital Audio Radio Services tremendous customer
growth in the U.S. - Yet no other companies worldwide have announced
DARS plans - Signs of improving economic outlook?
10Factors That Affect Launch Demand
- Strength of U.S. and international economy
- Investor confidence
- Government purchase of commercial services
- Need for replacement satellites
- Business case changes
- Corporate mergers
- Regulatory and political changes
- Government missions open to launch services
competition
11Historical and Forecast Launch Comparison