2004 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast for Non-Geosynchronous Orbits (NGSO)

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2004 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast
for Non-Geosynchronous Orbits (NGSO)
John Sloan Federal Aviation Administration Associ
ate Administrator for Commercial Space
Transportation (FAA/AST) john.sloan_at_faa.gov May
20, 2004
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Introduction
Worldwide Commercial Launches

• NGSO forecast includes payloads open to
  internationally competed launch services
  procurement and other commercially sponsored
  payloads
• Payloads that generate launch demand
• Typically no secondary or dummy payloads

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Methodology

Review business and financial progress, satellite
specifications, launch plans, and overall market
status
Step 3
Step 1
Step 2
Conduct interviews with companies, the FCC and
survey launch providers on near-term manifest

Review data with companies, update model, write
report
Step 7

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Baseline Satellite Forecast
106 satellites 2004-2013 average of 10.6 per
year 32 increase compared to last year 80
in 2003, 151 in 2001 forecast
2004 Baseline Satellite Projection

• 2004-2013 by sector
• 55 International
• Scienctific/Other
• 30 Telecommunications
• 15 Commercial
• Remote Sensing

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Baseline Launch Forecast
51 total launches 2004-2013 Launch Demand is the
same as last years forecast 51 launches in
2003, 63 in 2002 forecast

• Average of 5.1 launches
• per year
• About 2 medium-heavy
• launch vehicles
• About 3 small launch
• vehicles

• 2004-2013 by sector
• Intl Scienctific/Other
• 33 launches
• Remote Sensing
• 12 launches
• Telecommunications
• 6 launches

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Near-Term Manifest
Based on announced satellites as of May 12, 2003
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Near-Term Satellite Mass
Based on announced satellites as of May 12, 2004
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Baseline Forecast 2004-2013

• Near-term satellites and launches higher than far
  term
• Telecommunications (ORBCOMM and Globalstar)
• Commercial Remote Sensing
• Far-term International Scientifice/Other
  satellites are estimates based on historical
  activity
• Small science satellites appear rapidly,
  difficult to forecast

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Trends in NGSO Forecast

• Return of Telecommunications
• More favorable business climate for ORBCOMM and
  Globalstar
• Steady customer growth
• Debt-free operations
• New, committed private investors
• Too early to forecast Iridium, Globalstar
  second-generation systems
• Second-generation system strategies
• Launch on need replace first-generation
  satellites when they fail
• Spread costs over time earn money while
  deploying
• Bulk of market remains international science
  satellites
• More multiple-manifest small launches
• Russian Dnepr, Cosmos
• Digital Audio Radio Services tremendous customer
  growth in the U.S.
• Yet no other companies worldwide have announced
  DARS plans
• Signs of improving economic outlook?

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Factors That Affect Launch Demand

• Strength of U.S. and international economy
• Investor confidence
• Government purchase of commercial services
• Need for replacement satellites
• Business case changes
• Corporate mergers
• Regulatory and political changes
• Government missions open to launch services
  competition

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Historical and Forecast Launch Comparison