Title: Biomedical Longevity Revolution and its Consequences
1Biomedical Longevity Revolution and its
Consequences
- Dr. Leonid A. Gavrilov, Ph.D.
- Dr. Natalia S. Gavrilova, Ph.D.
- Center on Aging
- NORC and the University of Chicago
- Chicago, Illinois, USA
2Trends in Life Expectancy at 60Females
- Source Human Mortality Database
3Longevity Revolution through Biotechnology and
genetic engineering
-
- "... it may soon be possible to delay both aging
and age-related disease in humans." (p. 162) - The Longevity Revolution The Benefits and
Challenges of Living a Long Life. By Robert N.
Butler. 553 pp. New York, PublicAffairs, 2008
4Longevity Revolution (2)
-
- "The present level of development of aging and
longevity research justifies an Apollo-type
effort to control aging ... (p. 187)
5Longevity Revolution (3)
- "Enthusiasts over the future of cell, tissue, and
organ replacement imagine successive,
comprehensive reconstitutions of the body.
Replacement or regenerative medicine would push
death back, presumably indefinitely. (p. 401)
6Longevity Revolution (4)
- " "Indeed, some believe that humans can master
their evolution. Among them is Aubrey de Grey of
Cambridge University, who suggests a life
expectancy of five thousand years by 2100 17.
(pp. 13-14)
7New academic journal on
life-extension and rejuvenation
- Fully indexed by MEDLINE
- Latest Impact Factor is 4.138
8Why Longevity Revolution may be delayed?
- Because it requires serious funding
- and commitment
- "It is sheer foolishness to imagine that we can
extend life ... without substantial governmental
participation" (p. 11) - in 2007 only about 15 to 20 percent of
approved grants were funded, depending on the
institute. I believe that at least 30
percent of approved grants (if not more) should
be funded. ... When funds are tight, review
committees act too cautiously and conservatively.
Funds should be available to support risky
research. (p.106)
9Why Longevity Revolution may be delayed? (2)
- Today less than 1 percent of the entire federal
budget is spent on medical research. Both to
improve health and control costs, I propose that
3 percent of the nation's overall health bill
(1.8 trillion projected as 2005) or 54 billion
be available to NIH for medical research from
federal revenues. I also propose that of Medicare
expenditures, 1 percent (or 3 billion) be
devoted to the National Institute on Aging.
(p.110)
10Why Longevity Revolution may be delayed? (3)
- While the numbers I am suggesting may seem
extraordinary, I believe the level of scientific
progress in the field since the 1950s justifies
such a program, which could be dubbed the Apollo
Program for Aging and Longevity Science.
(p.110) - "An orbital jump in financing of science is
required to advance longevity and health as well
as national wealth. (p. 118 - 119) - Reference The Longevity Revolution The Benefits
and Challenges of Living a Long Life. By Robert
N. Butler. 553 pp. New York, PublicAffairs, 2008
11General Prediction
- Effective life-extending technologies may appear
within our lifetime - However they will be initially expensive and not
readily available - Therefore, 'longevity risk' will be particularly
high for persons who are HEWM - Healthy (at baseline)
- Educated
- Wealthy
- Motivated
- It is conceivable that such HEWM people may reach
life expectancy of about 120 years in a
foreseeable future.
12What May Happenin the Case of Radical Life
Extension?
13Rationale of our study
- A common objection against starting a large-scale
biomedical war on aging is the fear of
catastrophic population consequences
(overpopulation)
14Rationale (continued)
- This fear is only exacerbated by the fact that
no detailed demographic projections for radical
life extension scenario were conducted so far. - What would happen with population numbers if
aging-related deaths are significantly postponed
or even eliminated? - Is it possible to have a sustainable population
dynamics in a future hypothetical non-aging
society?
15The Purpose of this Study
- This study explores different demographic
scenarios and population projections, in order to
clarify what could be the demographic
consequences of a successful biomedical war on
aging.
16"Worst" Case Scenario Immortality
- Consider the "worst" case scenario (for
overpopulation) -- physical immortality (no
deaths at all) - What would happen with population numbers, then?
- A common sense and intuition says that there
should be a demographic catastrophe, if immortal
people continue to reproduce. - But what would the science (mathematics) say ?
17The case of immortal population
- Suppose that parents produce less than two
children on average, so that each next generation
is smaller - Generation (n1)
- Generation n
- Then even if everybody is immortal, the final
size of the population will not be infinite, but
just -
- larger than the initial population.
r lt 1
1/(1 - r)
18The case of immortal population
- For example one-child practice (r 0.5) will
only double the total immortal population -
- Proof
- Infinite geometric series converge if the
absolute value of the common ratio ( r ) is less
than one - 1 r r2 r3 rn 1/(1-r)
1/(1 - r) 1/0.5 2
19Lesson to be Learned
- Fears of overpopulation based on lay common sense
and uneducated intuition could be exaggerated. - Immortality, the joy of parenting, and
sustainable population size, are not mutually
exclusive. - This is because a population of immortal
reproducing organisms will grow indefinitely in
time, but not necessarily indefinitely in size
(asymptotic growth is possible).
20Method of population projection
- Cohort-component method of population projection
(standard demographic approach) - Age-specific fertility is assumed to remain
unchanged over time, to study mortality effects
only - No migration assumed, because of the focus on
natural increase or decline of the population - New population projection software is developed
using Microsoft Excel macros
21Study population Sweden 2005
22Mortality in the study population
23Population projection without life extension
interventions
Beginning of population decline after 2025
24Projected changes in population pyramid 100 years
later
25Why Life-Extension is a Part of the Solution,
rather than a Problem
- Many developed countries (like the studied
Sweden) face dramatic decline in native-born
population in the future (see earlier graphs) ,
and also risk to lose their cultural identity due
to massive immigration. - Therefore, extension of healthy lifespan in these
countries may in fact prevent, rather than create
a demographic catastrophe.
26Scenario 1Modest scenarioContinuous mortality
decline
- Mortality continues to decline with the same pace
as before (2 percent per year)
27Changes in Mortality, 1925-2007
Swedish Females. Data source Human Mortality
Database
28Modest scenarioContinuous mortality decline
An example for Swedish females. Median life span
increases from 86 years in 2005 to 102 years in
2105 Data Source Human mortality database
29Population projection with continuous mortality
decline scenario
30Changes in population pyramid 100 years later
31Scenario 2
- Negligible senescence after age 60
32Radical scenario No aging after age 60
33Population projection with negligible senescence
scenario
34Changes in population pyramid 100 years later
35Conclusions on radical scenario
- Even in the case of defeating aging (no aging
after 60 years) the natural population growth is
relatively small (about 20 increase over 70
years) - Moreover, defeating aging helps to prevent
natural population decline in developed countries
36Acknowledgments
- This study was made possible thanks to
- generous support from the National Institute on
Aging, and - stimulating working environment at the Center
on Aging, NORC/University of Chicago
37Acknowledgments
- This study was made possible thanks to
- generous support from the SENS/Methuselah
Foundation -
38For More Information and Updates Please Visit Our
Scientific and Educational Website on Human
Longevity
- http//longevity-science.org
And Please Post Your Comments at our Scientific
Discussion Blog
- http//longevity-science.blogspot.com/
39(No Transcript)
40- Gavrilov, L., Gavrilova, N. Reliability theory
of aging and longevity. In Handbook of the
Biology of Aging. Academic Press, 6th edition
(published recently).