Laszlo Csicsmann, PhD

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LIBYA The Fall of the Qaddhafi-regime

• Laszlo Csicsmann, PhD
• assistant professor

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Introduction

• Population 6,5 millions
• High population density along the coast
• Largest cities Tripoli and Benghazi
• Strong tribal affiliation al-Magarha, Warfalla,
  etc.
• Three parts Tripolitania, Fezzan and Cyrenaica
• Relatively large oil wealth Sirte basin is the
  most important (production 1,6 millions b/day,
  17. largest in the world, 3. in Africa, export 85
  to the EU). 3,3 of the world oil wealth, 2,2
  of the worlds oil production.
• 75-90 of the annual revenue comes from oil and
  gas export

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Period of the monarchy

• 1551 1911 part of the Ottoman Empire
• 1912 Ottoman-Italian treaty after the war
• Importance of the Sanussi Movement against the
  Italian occupation (from 1837 in the Hijaz)
• In 1929 Italy used the name Libya first
• 1942 British and French occupation under military
  rule
• 1947 peace treaty with Italy
• 1949 UN resolution Libya should be an
  independent country
• 1 January 1951. independence Sayyid Muhammed
  Idris I. the monarch

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The end of the monarchy

• 1951 constitutional monarchy with .
• The ruler is the head of the Sanussi religious
  movement and direct descendant of the founder of
  the movement
• Absence of political parties
• 1955 first oil concession
• 1959- oil export (Esso)
• 1960s growing opposition

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The Qaddhafi regime

• 1 September 1969 Revolution by the Free
  Officers Movement ousted the king
• Revolutionary Command Council headed by Colonel
  Qaddhafi promising a radical transformation
• Imitation of the Egyptian model (Arab Socialist
  Union, 1971-1976)
• 1973 cultural revolution inspired by China
• 1976-1978 Green Book 3 volumes

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The qaddhafi Clan
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Internal politics during the Qaddhafi era

• Cultural revolution direct participation
  (ultra-democracy), peoples committees
• National level General Peoples Congress
• From 1977 revolutionary councils
• 1977 Peoples Socialist Arab Jamahiryya
• 1981 growing opposition (National Front for the
  Liberation of Libya) 1984-ben coup attempt,
  growing Islamist movement

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Foreign Policy of the Qaddhafi era

• 1969 - foreign military bases and military
• From 1969 self-defense
• Nationalism and Pan Arabism, failed attempts of
  Arab
• Failed intervention in Chad until 1987
• Support of the Palestinian case
• International terrorism 1988 Lockerbie and UTA
  plane bombings
• From 1992 international sanctions by UN
• African orientation the establishment of the
  African Union

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End of sanctions and normalization

• 1999 extradiction of the two terrorist suspects
• 2003 Libya agreed to pay a compensation to the
  families of the victims of Lockerbie end of the
  WMD program gradual withdrawal of UN sanctions
• 2006 normalization of US-Libyan relations
• Positive economic benefits of normalization
• The role of Saif al-Islam al-Qaddhafi
• Moderation of Islamists

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What happened in 2011?

• January 2011 protest starts in Benghazi
• The spill over effect of the Egyptian movement
• Uprising from 15 February and later civil war
• Qaddhafi and Saif al-Islam speeches
• The role of the international community
• UN SC 1970 and 1973 (17 March)
• 19 March start of the implementation of the
  no-fly zone coordinated by NATO, today 17
  countries participate in the bombings

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The Transitional National Council

• 81 countries recognized as the legitim government
  of Libya
• 27 February 2011 foundation in Benghazi
• Mahmoud Jibril de facto prime minister from 23
  March 2011 (technocrat served under Qaddhafi)

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Division within TNC

• Main goal topple of the Qaddhafi regime
• In the beginning the aim of the TNC was to
  coordinate the rebel forces and they had no
  vision how to shape the future
• Ideological division within TNC members
• Political Islam is significant among rebels
  (Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, renamed Libyan
  Islamic Movement) presence of al-Qaeda?
• Some members of the TNC are former member of the
  Qaddhafi regime Mustafa Abdul Jalil former
  minister of justice (currently serves as the
  chairman of TNC),

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Constitutional Declaration and the Future

• TNC represent mainly the Eastern part of the
  country, in Misrata protests against TNC
• 3 August constitutional declaration a
  constitution for the transitional period (Islam
  is the principle source of legislation)
• New constitution within 3 months after
  plebiscite, presidential elections
• No member of the TNC can run for future political
  positions
• Monarchy or republic?

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Main Challenges

• 21 August - The battle for Tripoli 4 cities
  remain under Qaddhafi control (Bani Walid, Sirte,
  Sabha, Jufra )
• Where is Qaddhafi? ICC arrest warrant against
  Moammer al-Qaddhafi, Saif al-Islam al-Qaddhafi
  and Abdullah al-Sanussi
• Preserve the territorial integrity of Libya and
  achieve political stability (Iraq, Somalia)
• Start of the oil production
• Solve the refugee question (1 millions Egypt,
  Tunisia IDPs)

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LIBYA in September 2011