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Mandela

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Mandela Its not a tragedy to die with dreams unfulfilled, but it is a tragedy not to dream. Mandela s dream , shared by me and billions of others, is of all ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Mandela


1
Mandela
  • Its not a tragedy to die with dreams unfulfilled,
    but it is a tragedy not to dream.
  • Mandelas dream , shared by me and billions of
    others, is of all humanity living with each
    other in harmony and balance, and living in the
    world without destroying it.
  • So develop a flourishing global civilisation.
  • And in Ghandis words Live simply, so that other
    may simply live.

2
GMC duties of Doctors/health professionals
  • Two equal obligations
  • To care for individual patients in a humane
    compassionate and scientifically effective way,
    without regard to status, sexual orientation,
    origin or any other.
  • To ensure that the society we live in is health
    creating, so that all global inhabitants can
    enjoy good health.
  • Same for all health professionals

3
Preconditions for a health creating civilisation
  • All peoples have reasonable access to economic
    and social resources.
  • Earths gifts are shared amongst humans fairly
    without compromising future generations and other
    than humans
  • Present attempts to be create this healthy world
    are undermined by two great problems-global
    climate change and the everywhere prevalent gap
    in resources between the materially rich and the
    materially poor
  • If we are to fulfil our obligations health
    professionals must play a prominent role in
    addressing these problems.

4
What do we need to do?
  • Inform
  • Affirm
  • Advocate
  • Innovate
  • Disseminate

5
What do we need to do?
  • Inform
  • -- health consequences of Climate change and
    the widening resource gap
  • policies for mitigation
  • policies for adaptation
  • co-benefits of the above

6
What we need to do
  • Affirm. Measure and reduce personal CO2
    emissions. Ensure that the organisations we are
    associated with do likewise.
  • Informing and affirming -putting our own house in
    order- wont solve the problem, but give us the
    moral right to advocate for global solutions
    which will.
  • When in place, these global solutions will
    accelerate our own local initiatives.

7
What do we need to do?
  • Advocacy, stressing the need for a global
    framework which simultaneously tackles climate
    change and the resource gap, and so is health
    promoting.
  • So a fair shares solutiona fair share of the
    residual carbon we can emit consistent with a 450
    ppm CO2 target, and of the resources which come
    from these emissions.
  • Most feasible present fair shares option is
    Contraction and Convergence.

8
Contraction
  • Set a globally agreed carbon Budget, aimed at
    keeping atmospheric CO2 levels below 450ppm.
  • Reduce this over an agreed, but negotiable time
    scale (probably 50 years) until the amount
    emitted equals the amount the world can cope
    with.( approx 8 billion tons of CO2 1.4
    tons/person/year).
  • But this amount depends on protecting carbon
    sinks.
  • By CONTRACTING the amount of Carbon emitted, this
    process will stabilise atmospheric CO2 levels.
  • Allocate an equal entitlement of this capped
    budget to every global citizen.

9
Convergence
  • Move rapidly to an equal entitlement of the
    carbon budget to each person in the world. A
    CONVERGENCE to an equal share of earths bounties
    and support systems.
  • Then frugal emitters( usually the poor) will be
    able to sell their unused entitlements to the
    profligate emitters( the rich). For compelling
    financial reasons, all will invest in low carbon
    initiatives.
  • Given that each ton of CO2 entitlement will have
    a substantial financial value, this process will
    enable a framework based market transfer of
    money to the poor to fourish.
  • This would more than cover 120/person which the
    UN millennium project has estimated will be
    required to deliver the millennium goals in
    Africa.

10
Contraction and Convergence
  • Creates a policy virtuous cycle at a global
    level, enabling economic and social progress
    within environmental limits.
  • Unleashes a worldwide boom in low carbon
    entrepreneurial activity.
  • Facilitates the development and implementation of
    virtuous cycles for coping with the problems
    of waste, excessive fossil fuel use, biodiversity
    loss, noise at National, regional , community and
    personal levels.
  • Implementing virtuous cycles is essential for
    promoting sustainability and wellbeing.
  • The many virtuous cycles of policy facilitated by
    C and C will deliver major health benefits.

11
Health Benefits of C and C.
  • Those arising from the mitigation of Climate
    change. KEEPING our COOL
  • Those arising from the related transfer of
    resources. NARROWING the GAP
  • Those rising from the facilitation of other
    virtuous cycles, moving those living in the Rich
    North to more physically active non obesogenic
    societies, in which obesity related disease will
    be less prevalent.

12
Virtuous cycles facilitated by C and C
  • Regional/National Level Distributed energy
    networks.
  • Community level Influence procurement to
    create virtuous cycles of activity.-( the health
    service buys around 11 billion worth of products
    each year) . e.g
  • a) locally grown organic food supplying health
    facilities.
  • b) Influencing new buildings to improve the
    economic, environmental and social circumstances
    of the localities in which they are built.
  • Personal level Set and promote good examples
    e.g.
  • a) ride a bicycle,
  • b) Insulate our homes using local materials and
    local workers.

13
What do we need to do?
  • Innovate-seeking new institutional forms for
    delivering the C and C framework and
  • Disseminaterecruiting as many partners as
    possible.

14
Take home message-1
  • Global agreement to tackle climate change is
    imperative for our global good health-health
    professionals have a crucial advocacy role.
  • Participation of the majority world is dependent
    on carbon constraint being coupled to a transfer
    of resources to the yet to industrialise and
    industrialising countries.
  • These countries can then share in non fossil fuel
    dependent progress.
  • The framework based market of Contraction and
    Convergence is the most feasible presently
    available tool to achieve this end.

15
Take home message -2.
  • C and C will facilitate many other virtuous
    cycles, providing a boost to sustainability and
    wellbeing, and therefore public health.
  • Think, advocate and implement Virtuous cycles at
    all levels, including those which protect the
    globes carbon sinks.
  • Join the many others who are clamouring for the
    global virtuous cycle of C and C.
  • Make C and C the framework promoted by the UK at
    COP 15 ,Copenhagen 2009.

16
Conference of the parties to UNFCCC ( COP)
  • COP is the supreme decision making body of the
    UNFCCC. It is open to all signatories, and meets
    each year.
  • First steps to a new global framework were taken
    at COP 13, in Bali Dec 07
  • We must aim to make C and C the policy the UK
    proposes at COP 15 , Copenhagen 2009

17
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18
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19
Atmospheric CO2 levels, global warming and fossil
fuel use.
  • Stable level from 10,000 years ago to
    1800-280ppm.( not above 300ppm for 400,000 years)
  • Present level 380ppm,increasing by 2ppm/year.
  • Global temp has risen in parallel-predicted
    increases for 21st century are around 0.5
    C/decade.
  • Fossil fuel is burned predominantly by the rich
    North. 80 million barrels oil/day- USA 20
    million, China 6, Japan 5, Germany 3, India
    3,UK1.9.
  • Per capita emissions (tons of CO2 )USA-20
    UK-10 Africagt1 China-3.0 India-1.5.
  • Sustainable per capita emission is approx 1
    ton/year. This amount is dependent on
    preservation of carbon sinks.( The biomass,
    particularly tropical forests ,and the sea)

20
Ecosystems and Health-Impacts of climate change
  • A Source of energy and materials.
  • A Service for water, food , micronutrients and
    carbon recycling.
  • A Sink for pollutants.
  • A Space for living working and aesthetics.
  • 60 of all ecosystems are already degraded or
    being used unsustainably.
  • Global warming will aggravate the situation.

21
Global climate change-aggravating the problem
  • Unpredictable exposure to extremes of weather
    affecting water supply and crops.
  • Expansion of range of disease vectors. Falciparum
    Malaria already causes 500 million cases/year,
    with one million deaths.
  • Thermal expansion of water plus melting land
    based ice leading to sea level rises.100 million
    people and many cities are within half a metre of
    present sea level.
  • Ensuing demographic, social and economic
    dislocation, with the likelyhood of 100 million
    new climate refugees.

22
Deprivation and disparity, which will get worse
with global warming.
  • 800 millions go to bed hungry. 1 billion have no
    access to clean water.
  • Of 700 million primary school children, 125
    million, mostly girls, dont go to school.
  • 2 billion people live on incomes below 1,000
    /year 1 billion on 30,000 /year.
  • This disparity exists in both rich and poor
    countries.
  • Personal income is a good marker of this
    disparity. Globally, ratio of income between top
    20 and bottom 20 has moved from 1135 (1998) to
    1150 (2004). Gini coefficient in UK was 0.29
    (1980), 0.4 (2002).

23
Atheroma and global warming
  • Atheroma, narrowing of the arteries, is the basis
    of most deaths in the developed world.
  • Half of the 550,000 deaths /year in the UK,
  • 11 of global deaths.
  • Commonest in non exercising obese ( diabetic),
    eating high salt high cholesterol and energy
    dense foods, smoking and suffering from low
    status.

24
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25
Atheroma and global warming
  • Atheroma occurs in the obesogenic societies of
    the minority world.
  • These societies have flourished with the
    availability of cheap and plentiful fossil fuel
    energy.
  • And are therefore the societies which provoke
    global warming.
  • In carbon constrained societies, there will be a
    move to localism. We will once again use more
    human effort, as was the case in societies
    before the availability of cheap fossil fuel.
  • The move to localism will unleash a series of
    virtuous cycles moving us toward a non obesogenic
    society. The reduction in the prevalence of
    atheroma will be an excellent marker of
    improvement.

26
UN Framework Convention on Climate ChangeUNFCCC
  • UNFCCC came into force on 21.03.1994.Its three
    objectives are to
  • Gather and share info on GHG emissions , national
    policy and best practice.
  • Launch national strategies for addressing GHG
    emissions and adapting to expected impacts,
    including the provision of financial and
    technical support to developing countries.
  • Co-operate in preparing for the impact of climate
    change.

27
Take up of C and C.
  • Senior advocates in the European Union , India,
    Africa and UK.
  • Archbishop of Canterbury , Michael Meacher, Ken
    Livingstone,and Colin Challen, chairman of the UK
    parliamentary all parties climate change group.
  • German Advisory Council on Global climate
    Change.
  • Aubrey Meyer, director of the GCI and inspiration
    behind C and C gets City of London 2005 lifetime
    achievement award.
  • Fleming, the Tyndall centre and Domestic
    Tradeable Quotas ( Local variant of C and C).

28
Millennium goals-2015
  • Reduce by 75 maternal mortality rate.
  • Halt and reverse AIDS/HIV epidemic.
  • Halve number of people living without access to
    water/sanitation.
  • Reduce under 5 mortality by 66.
  • Halve the number of people living on less than
    1/day.
  • Universal primary education.

29
Energy equivalents.
  • The energy in a kilo ( litre) of oil is 10
    kilowatt hours, equivalent to between 100 and
    200hours of human work.
  • An hour of human work is therefore equivalent to
    5-10 grms ( I teaspoonful) of oil
  • A 40 litre fill up of a petrol tank is equivalent
    to between 2 to 4years of human work.
  • 1 kilowatt hour860 kilocals,3.6 megajoules
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