? 2?.???? (Demand forecasting)

1
? 2?.???? (Demand forecasting)
2
5. ????? (artificial neural network)
Chapter 2.
2-5. ANN
Najjar, Y.M., I.A. Basheer and M.N. Hajmeer
(1997), Computational neural networks for
predictive microbiology I. methodology, Int.
Journal of Food Microbiology, 34, 27-49.
3
????? (artificial neural network)
Chapter 2.
2-5. ANN
????? ?? ?? neuron, layer (input layer, hidden
layer, output layer)
??/??
neurons
??
4
????? (artificial neural network) input-1
neuron-output
Chapter 2.
2-5. ANN
neuron
p1 p2 p3 P4 . . pr
w1,1
n1
a1
f(n)
w1,r
b1
input
Layer of neurons
Matlab v6.5, neural network toolbox (nn toolbox),
user manual, 2004.
5
????? (artificial neural network)
Chapter 2.
2-5. ANN
p1 p2 p3 P4 . . pr
w1,1
n1
a1
f(n)
w1,r
b1
w2,1
n2
a2
f(n)
w2,r
input
b2
Layer of neurons
6
ANN-perceptron neuron
Chapter 2.
2-5. ANN
p1 p2 p3 P4 . . pr
w1,1
n1
a1
f(n)
w1,r
Hard-limit function
b1
7
ANN-perceptron neuron
Chapter 2.
2-5. ANN
p1 p2 p3 P4 . . pr
w1,1
n1
a1
f(n)
a11
w1,r
Hard-limit function
b1
8
?? 1 3-1-1 perceptron
a1?
9
ANN-linear neuron
Chapter 2.
2-5. ANN
p1 p2 p3 P4 . . pr
w1,1
n1
a1
f(n)
w1,r
purelin function
b1
10
?? 2 3-1-1 linear neuron
a1?
11
ANN-sigmoid neuron
Chapter 2.
2-5. ANN
p1 p2 p3 P4 . . pr
w1,1
n1
a1
f(n)
w1,r
sigmoid function
b1
12
ANN-??
Chapter 2.
2-5. ANN
p1 p2 p3 P4 . . pr
w1,1
n1
a1
f(n)
a10.1978
w1,r
sigmoid function
b1
13
?? 3 3-1-1 sigmoid neuron
a1?
14
ANN-?? 4. ????
Chapter 2.
2-5. ANN
???????? ???? ??? ??? (C2H4) ? ??????? ?? ?? ???
??? (p1), ????? (p2), ?? (p3), ??? ??? (p4),
????? (p5) ? ?? ???? ??. ?? 3??? ?? ???? ????
2005?? ??? ?????. ?, ????? (5-4-1) ? ???? sigmoid
function ? ?????.1) ?? ??? 2) ???? ??? 3??
???? ???? ??? (w, 5x4) ? bias (b, 5x1) ?
??. 1-1) ??? 3?? ?????? ????? ??? ? ?? ????
?? 1-2) ????? ??? ??? ??? ??3) ?? ???? bias ??
???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ????.
15
ANN-?? 4. ???? (???)
Chapter 2.
2-5. ANN
?? ??? ???? ??? ?? ?? ?????
??? p1 1 /barrel
????? p2 5
2002 ?? p3 1400 won/ 14
??? ??? p4 3 kilo-ton
????? p5 2
??? p1 1.2 /barrel
????? p2 4
2003 ?? p3 1300 won/ 12
??? ??? p4 5 kilo-ton
????? p5 3
??? p1 1.4 /barrel
????? p2 4
2004 ?? p3 1200 won/ 16
??? ??? p4 6 kilo-ton
????? p5 5
??? p1 1.3 /barrel
????? p2 5
2005 ?? p3 1100 won/ ?
??? ??? p4 7 kilo-ton
????? p5 6
16
ANN-?? 4. ???? (?? ???)
Chapter 2.
2-5. ANN
?? ??? ???? ??? ???? ?????
??? p1 0.333333 0.5-2
????? p2 0.5 0-10
2002 ?? p3 0.5 800-2000 14
??? ??? p4 0.3 0-10
????? p5 0.2 0-10
??? p1 0.466667 0.5-2
????? p2 0.4 0-10
2003 ?? p3 0.416667 800-2000 12
??? ??? p4 0.5 0-10
????? p5 0.3 0-10
??? p1 0.6 0.5-2
????? p2 0.4 0-10
2004 ?? p3 0.333333 800-2000 16
??? ??? p4 0.6 0-10
????? p5 0.5 0-10
??? p1 0.533333 0.5-2
????? p2 0.5 0-10
2005 ?? p3 0.25 800-2000 ?
??? ??? p4 0.7 0-10
????? p5 0.6 0-10
17
ANN-?? 4. ???? (matlab-nntool)
Chapter 2.
2-5. ANN
18
ANN-?? 4. ???? (matlab-nntool)
Chapter 2.
2-5. ANN
1. Matlab-nntool (neural network tool) ??? ?? 2.
Network name network_ex1 3. Network type
feedforward backpropagation 4. Input range 0 1
0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 5. Training function traingd
(basic gradient descent) 6. Adaptation learning
function learngdm 7. Performance function
MSE 8. Number of layers 2 (hidden layer and
output layer) 9. Layer 1 (4 neuronslogsim
func.), Layer 2 (1 neuron purelin func.)
19
ANN-?? 4. ???? (matlab-nntool)
Chapter 2.
2-5. ANN

• Training data set
• Input_train0.33333 0.46667 0.6
• 0.5 0.4 0.4
• 0.5 0.41667 0.33333
• 0.3 0.5 0.6
• 0.2 0.3 0.5
• Target_train14 12 16

2. ??? weight-5.02 3.34 -2.15 2.88 -2.20
2.42 -0.13 -4.15 5.77 0.76
4.73 -3.06 1.04 4.50 -1.94 3.61
1.95 3.69 -4.84 1.25 bias5.5022
-3.3137 0.3567 1.3632
3. Simulation data set Input_sim 0.53333
0.5 0.25
0.7
0.6 Target_sim14.73
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ANN-?? 1. ???? (matlab-nntool)
Chapter 2.
2-5. ANN
?? ??? ??? ??? 2005?? ?????? ?????. 1.
matlab-nntool?? feedforward backpropagation
?? 2. ??? ???? ????? ??? ?? nn topology ? error
?? 3. ????? ??? nn topology ?? 4. ??? ?????
???? ???? bias ???? 5. 2005?? ????
21
?? 1 ?????? ??? ????
?? ??? ???? ??? ?? ?? ?????
????? p1 5
2001 ?? p2 1400 won/ 20
??????? p3 7
??? ??? p4 2 kilo-ton
????? p1 6
2002 ?? p2 1300 won/ 36
??????? p3 7
??? ??? p4 3 kilo-ton
????? p1 4
2003 ?? p2 1200 won/ 30
??????? p3 6
??? ??? p4 3 kilo-ton
????? p1 4
?? p2 1200 won/
2004 ??????? p3 4 18
??? ??? p4 4 kilo-ton
????? p1 6
2005 ?? p2 1000 won/ ?
??????? p3 7
??? ??? p4 6 kilo-ton