Disturbances to Propagation

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Disturbances to Propagation
CQ DX, CQ DX
Ok, whered everybody go?

• Carl Luetzelschwab K9LA
• k9la_at_arrl.net
• http//mysite.verizon.net/k9la

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Agenda

• Quick look at recent Cycle 24 activity
• Review WWV format SWPC home page
• Disturbances - the big picture
• Disturbances - their impact to real-world
  operating
• Review of auroral oval images

This presentation will be on the PVRC
website visit http//www.pvrc.org/index.html cli
ck on the PVRC Webinars link at the top
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Quick Look at Recent Cycle 24 Activity
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Cycle 24 - Region 1029

• Sunspot Region 1029 rotated into view on October
  23
• It became the biggest active region of the year
  ?
• It produced ten C-class solar flares from October
  25-28.
• That more than tripled the number of C-class
  flares (three) previously detected in all of
  2009.
• It helped 15m for CQ WW SSB
• K9LA Multi-Two worked 91 countries on 15m
• It rotated out of view on October 31

Region 1029 viewed on 27 October 2009
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Millstone Hill Ionosonde
Region 1029 rotated into view
Early October was iffy for 15m for those of us
in the Midwest
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Things May Be Picking Up
Smoothed sunspot number Nov08 1.75 Dec08 1.7
(NOAA prediction) Jan09 1.8 Feb09 1.9 Mar09
2.0 Apr09 2.2 Mar09 ??? Mar09 smoothed
sunspot number will be available when the Nov09
monthly mean data is collected
Nov09 is 4.4 so far
Monthly Mean
Oct09
10
Sep09
5
0

• Monthly mean average of the daily sunspot
  number over a months period
• Smoothed sunspot number average of monthly
  means using data from six months behind to 6
  months ahead of desired month

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Even More Activity

• Region 1029 persisted and came around again
• Rotated into view on November 14
• But it fizzled out ?
• Region 1030 produced some activity
• Region 1031 also produced some activity
• Two more regions numbered on November 18 1032
  and 1033
• More sunspots! ?
• Hopefully this activity will continue so that the
  November 2009 monthly mean sunspot number will be
  higher than the October 2009 monthly mean sunspot
  number
• Which will result in the March 2009 smoothed
  sunspot number being higher than the April 2009
  smoothed sunspot number

Result of increased solar activity is more
disturbances to propagation And thats the topic
of tonights discussion
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Review WWV Format SWPC Home Page
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New WWV Format

• Changed on March 12, 2002
• Three sections
• Current indices
• Summary of past 24 hours
• Forecast for next 24 hours
• More specific in terms of disturbances to
  propagation

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Sample Report
Solar terrestrial indices for 23 May follow Solar
flux 180 and mid-latitude A-index 43 The
mid-latitude K-index at 1500 UTC on May 24 was
1 Space weather for the past 24 hours has been
strong Geomagnetic storms reaching the G3 level
occurred Solar radiation storms reaching the S2
level occurred Radio blackouts reaching the R1
level occurred Space weather for the next 24
hours is expected to be minor Solar radiation
storms reaching the S1 level are expected Radio
blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected
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SWPC Home Page

• http//www.swpc.noaa.gov

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G, S, and R

• G refers to Geomagnetic Storms
• Caused by gusts in solar wind from CMEs (coronal
  mass ejections) and high speed streams from
  coronal holes
• Can cause auroral absorption, auroral-E, depleted
  F region ionization
• S refers to Solar Radiation Storms
• Caused by energetic protons from big solar flares
• Can increase D region absorption in the polar cap
  (PCA)
• R refers to Radio Blackouts
• Caused by electromagnetic radiation from big
  solar flares
• X-ray flares (.1-1 nm wavelengths) of X or M
  class
• Can increase D region absorption on daylight side
  of Earth
• For all three, scale is 1 to 5
• 1 is minor and 5 is extreme, and correspond to
  specific criteria
• Details at http//www.swpc.noaa.gov/Data/info/WWVd
  oc.html

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Disturbances the Big Picture
X-ray radiation from solar flare absorption on
the daylight side of the Earth
Protons from solar flare absorption in the
polar cap
X marks the spot the North magnetic pole
X
Geomagnetic storms auroral absorption, auroral
ionization
Geomagnetic storms depressed F region MUFs at
high and mid latitudes both day and night
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Disturbances Their Impact to Real-World
OperatingTrack a Geomagnetic Storm and Look at
W4ZV Contest Log
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CME at Coronagraph
from LASCO on SOHO
Coronagraph is a telescope with an occulting disk
to block out the Sun LASCO Large Angle
Spectrometric Coronagraph SOHO Solar and
Heliospheric Observatory is about 2.4 million
miles from Earth on the line to the Sun
halo CME at 0342 UTC on May 22, 2002
A halo event means the CME explosion is seen
all around the occulting disk, which indicates it
is headed toward Earth
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CME at ACE
from ACE (Advanced Composition Explorer)
halo CME at 0342 UTC on May 22, 2002
dials at 1002 UTC on May 23, 2002
The ACE satellite is sitting 1,000,000 miles
from Earth on the line to the Sun Shock wave took
about 30 hours to get to the ACE satellite
92,000,000 miles in 30 hours is 532 km/sec
Southward IMF (what the first dial measures)
usually means trouble Normal speed is 400
km/sec Dynamic pressure is particle density times
the square of the speed
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CME at Earth K Indices
halo CME at 0342 UTC on May 22, 2002
dials at 1002 UTC on May 23, 2002
elevated K indices
Usually takes 30 minutes to 1 hour for shock wave
to get from ACE to Earth
0-3 May 22 0-3 May 23
0-3 May 24
Meanook (Canada) K indices
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CME at Earth - Ionosphere
halo CME at 0342 UTC on May 22, 2002
result of elevated K indices
elevated K indices
00 May 22 00 May 23 00
May 24
0-3 May 22 0-3 May 23
0-3 May 24
MUF(3000)F2 at mid-latitude
Meanook (Canada) K indices
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W4ZV WPX CW 2002
W4ZV set single-op 10m record in 2001 - planned
to make a run at it in 2002 Halo CME at 0342 UTC
on May 22, 2002 10m propagation to EU was poor
details of this event are in the March 2003 issue
of CQ
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Real-Time View of F Region Depletion
result of CME

• CME on Monday Sep 30, 2002 - storm hit Earth on
  Tuesday Oct 1
• Higher bands took big dip due to F2 region
  depletion
• SSNe available at www.nwra-az.com/spawx/ssne24.htm
  l
• Also see July/August 2003 NCJ for more on SSNe
• SSNe uses F2 model of the ionosphere
• Varies sunspot number to make model agree with
  real-time ionosonde data

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Disturbances Their Impact to Real-World
OperatingTrack a Solar Radiation Storm (no log
data)
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Solar Radiation Storm at GOES
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite
Proton flux
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Solar Radiation Storm at Earth
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite
riometer absorption
Proton flux
( relative ionospheric opacity meter )
Energetic protons are fast, so the ionosphere
could be affected in an hour or two
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Solar Radiation Storm at Earth
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite
riometer absorption
Proton flux
Polar Cap Absorption (PCA)
MUF(3000)F2 at high latitude so much D region
absorption that ionosonde cant see the F2
region
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Disturbances Their Impact to Real-World
OperatingLook at Impact of Radio Blackout on
ZF2RR Contest Log (cant track Radio Blackout
because we have no warning electromagnetic
radiation from solar flare arrives at same time
as visual indication of solar flare)
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Radio Blackout on 10m
X4.0 flare at 1638 UTC
X1.9 flare at 1836 UTC
looking for mults
Dan N9XX/ZF2RR single band 10m low power if it
wasnt for the solar flares, he probably would
have broken the North America Low Power record
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Summary
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G, S, R

• G Geomagnetic Storm
• Caused by CMEs and coronal holes
• CMEs most prevalent around solar maximum
• Coronal holes most prevalent on decline
• S Solar Radiation Storm (PCAs)
• Caused by energetic protons from big solar flares
• Most prevalent around solar maximum
• R Radio Blackout
• Caused by electromagnetic radiation at X-ray
  wavelengths from big solar flares
• Most prevalent around solar maximum

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Impact

• In order of least impact to most impact
• Radio blackout (R)
• No warning, but usually short duration an hour
  or two
• Lower frequencies impacted longer
• Only affects daylight side of Earth
• Solar radiation Storm (S)
• A couple hours warning, can last a day or two
• Only affects propagation across the polar cap
• Geomagnetic Storm (G)
• A day or two warning, can last for days
• Affects high and mid latitude ionosphere both day
  and night
• In general we want G, S, R rating to be 1 or less

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Caveat

• Are all geomagnetic storms bad?
• -- NO --
• VHFers love them!
• And gradually evolving storms, driven by slowly
  increasing southward IMF, can increase nighttime
  low latitude F region ionization

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Review of Auroral Oval Images
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http//www.swpc.noaa.gov/pmap

• Each pass estimates total power into polar area -
  pull 1 of 10 canned pictures
• Black dots and solid black lines indicate
  electron energy and flux, respectively
• Detector measures particles up to 20 KeV (down
  to 100km cause visible aurora)
• Higher energy electrons that get down to D region
  are not measured
• These pictures do not directly tell us anything
  about absorption or auroral-E

The colors indicate where visual aurora may
occur, with orange indicating high probability
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Where Are the Problems?
DMSP photo (Defense Meteorological Satellite
Program)
Kp4
same night, same time (evening in the Midwest)

• Bright discrete auroral forms - lots of E region
  ionization
• Absorption usually equatorward of these discrete
  forms
• For more details, visit mysite.verizon.net/k9la,
  click on the General link, and read A Look Inside
  the Auroral Zone

Auroral zone is not necessarily full of
ionization that degrades HF
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Q A
This PowerPoint presentation (without audio) is
at http//mysite.verizon.net/k9la
And stay tuned for another K9LA PVRC presentation
in mid December 160m Propagation