TRICS Pass-by

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TRICS Pass-by Diverted Trips Research

• Lawrence Stringer, East Sussex County Council

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Why did we start this research?

• Existing research data
• The TRICS Research Report 95/2 Pass-By and
  Diverted Trips A Resume
• Good research but 1995
• Often used, sometimes rejected
• Things have changed
• Investigate the impact and assessment methodology
  for pass-by and diverted trips

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Methodology

• Stage 1 - Information Analysis
• Literature Review
• UK National Policy
• Travel Behaviour Trends
• Commercial Research
• Academic Research
• International Research
• Analysis of TRICS data
• Stage 2 - Individual Surveys
• Peer Review

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Policy Guidance

• Department for Transport Guidance on Transport
  Assessment (2007)
• TfL Transport Assessment Best Practice Guidance
  Document (2010)
• Auckland Regional Transport Authority Integrated
  Transport Assessment Guidelines Supplementary
  Documents (2007)
• National Planning Policy Framework (2012)
• ITE Trip Generation Manual, 9th Edition (2012)

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Travel Trends Behaviours

• National Travel Survey
• Distance travelled by car decreasing
• Shopping trips account for one fifth of all trips
• Number of shopping trips per person per year has
  decreased year on year between 1995 and 2012
• London Travel Demand Survey
• Online Shopping Trends

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Travel Trends Behaviours

• Online Shopping
• UK online grocery market represents approximately
  4.5 of the total grocery market.

Kantar Media, 2012
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Travel Trends Behaviours

• Online Shopping
• Online grocery shopping increasing by 18.7 over
  the past 12 months
• 22 of households shopped online for groceries
  over the past 12 months
• Click and Collect
• Tesco Asda
• Chronodrive
• Rapidly growing market

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Commercial Research

• Somerfield Shopping Trip Survey (1996)

Somerfield, 1996
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Commercial Research

• Tesco Survey Shopping Centres Research Linked
  Trips Information, 2001

• Table 4.1 Linked Trips
• Tesco Stores Ltd, 2001

Store Respondents Respondents Respondents Respondents
Store Visit shop before Tesco only Visit shop after Tesco only Visit shop before and after Tesco Total visiting another shop
Basingstoke 27 18 5 50
Coventry 34 12 3 49
Milton Keynes 25 8 1 34
Peterborough 40 6 8 54
Stevenage 46 12 8 64
Surrey Quays 38 7 8 53
Average 33 11 5 49
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Academic Research

• Harries et al. (2012) Trip Generation
  Characteristics of Large-Format Retail
  Development Sites in Auckland
• High proportion of secondary (pass-by and
  diverted) trips exist, being in the range of
  57-67.
• Ghezawi et al. (1998) Convenience Store Trip
  Generation
• average percentage of pass-by trips recorded was
  72,
• relationship between pass-by trip percentage and
  adjacent street volumes
• Mouchel (2009) Proposed Tesco Store Shopping
  Centre, West Bromwich Working Paper 3 Linked
  Trips
• pass-by level 40 considered robust estimate
  during weekday PM peak

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Academic Research

• MacIver, A. (1999) Transportation Impact
  Assessment Forecasting Travel Demand
• General rules for the proportions of pass-by
  trips at superstore developments in the UK
• Superstores on major commuting routes in larger
  urban areas - 25-35
• Less commuting routes, in out-of-town locations
  and in urban areas with smaller populations - 15
  to 25
• In town centres and on non-primary routes the
  proportion - 10 and
• In locations with little propensity to generate
  pass-by trips the proportion can be as low as 5.

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Analysis of TRICS data

• 88 sites from TRICS Database
• 5 Location Types
• Town Centre
• Edge of Town Centre
• Suburban (A)
• Suburban (B)
• Edge of Town
• Surveys from 2000 onwards only
• Mixture of Friday and Saturday surveys

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Analysis of TRICS data

• GFA Location Type
• No correlation

Figure 7.1 GFA by Location
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Analysis of TRICS Data

• Proximity to major shopping types
• A correlation exists to nearest commercial area

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Analysis of TRICS Data

• Trip rates
• Weekday and weekend daily period (0700-1900)
  trip rate increases as distance from town centre
  increases
• Peak hour spreading 1600 1900

Location Type 0700-1900 0800-0900 1600-1700 1700-1800 1800-1900
Town Centre 71.573 5.452 7.260 7.423 6.186
Edge of Town Centre 95.317 4.018 10.808 11.001 11.287
Suburban Area (A) 111.585 2.661 11.066 11.621 11.251
Suburban Area (B) 121.428 4.845 11.552 12.104 12.654
Edge of Town 134.059 5.402 13.104 14.271 12.392
TRICS Average 116.983 7.134 11.632 12.334 11.639
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Analysis of TRICS Data

• Weekday daily period trip rate increases as
  distance from town centre increases

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Analysis of TRICS data

• Facilities
• 12 types of facilities considered. As GFA
  increases, the facilities provided within the
  store expands.

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Analysis of TRICS data

• Facilities against Location Type
• Range of facilities on offer increases as
  distance from the town centre increases

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Analysis of TRICS data

• GFA Population
• 4 facilities comparison stores, less than 4
  facilities convenience stores.
• No observable correlation between population per
  1,000m2 GFA and GFA, location type, proximity to
  major area types or type of facilities provided.
• As GFA drops below 3,000m2, population per
  1,000m2 GFA also decreases

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Key conclusions from Stage 1

• Literature Review
• Lack of direction on how prevalence of pass-by
  and diverted trips should be addressed.
• Methodologies to assess these trips not provided
  in many policy guidelines.
• Commercial research has brought contradictory
  results
• Propensity for store customers to visit other
  shops within a town centre.
• Shopping habits are changing rapidly, especially
  online retail shopping and click and collect
  services.
• UK online grocery market represents approximately
  4.5 of the total grocery market increasing
  annually.
• Online shopping trends and click and collect
  services to be considered in determining trip
  rates and trip type proportions.

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Key conclusions from Stage 1

• TRICS Data Review
• 88 sites
• Correlation between location type and proximity
  to the nearest commercial area
• Friday peak period for store activity 1600 to
  1900
• Saturday peak period 100 to 1200
• Trip rate increases as distance from town centre
  increases
• No correlation between GFA and daily trip rate.
• No observable correlation between population per
  1,000m2 GFA and GFA, location type, proximity to
  nearest competition, proximity to nearest
  residential area or commercial area of type of
  facilities provided.

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Key points for Stage 2

• Store location type is most important factor for
  consideration.
• TRICS data review shows population and GFA to be
  less important factors.
• Surveys to focus on the two ends of the scale
  town centre and edge of town sites. Six surveys
  at each location type.
• Surveys to investigate the facilities on offer in
  each store and whether these are a point of
  influence in trip choice.
• Surveys at click and collect locations to be
  undertaken.

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Peer Review Group

• Graham Scholefield, University of Salford
• Martin Rogers, Dublin Institute of Technology
• Andrew MacIver, Napier University Edinburgh
• Dilum Dissanayake, University of Newcastle
• Rachel Aldred, University of Westminster
• Gordon Stokes, University of Oxford
• Andrew Murdoch, TPP Consulting
• Richard Sweet, PB Consultants
• Melvyn Dresner, Transport for London
• Stuart Wilson, Transport Scotland

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Points for Discussion

• Survey Categories
• Town Centre
• Edge of Town
• Number of Surveys
• Questions for inclusion in survey interviews
• Online shopping trends influencing overall store
  trip rates