Predict the Growth Pattern

1
Predict the Growth Pattern

• Swine Flu
• Outbreak 2009

2
In 2009, the Swine Flu was first reported on
April 26, 2009. The following data shows how
many cases were reported each day in the United
States.
3
Determine an equation to model the data.
4
How many cases do you expect to be confirmed on
the 8th day?
5
How close was your prediction?
6
This is the graph 2 days later. How do the
additional data points change your trendline?
7
How many cases do you expect to be confirmed on
day 10?
8
How close was your prediction?
9
What is happening to the graph as the number of
days increases?
10
Scientists use graphs to try to estimate how many
cases will arise over time. In order to make a
prediction, they create graphs to try to match
the data. Your job will be to help them
determine which graph will best predict the
number of cases nine days from now given the data
they have today.
11
Which graph do you believe will best predict the
number of cases 9 days from now?
12
How was your prediction?
13
Why do you suppose the linear model is so
inaccurate for predicting in this case?
14
What about the equation y 0.6x3 2.3x2
17.9x 24.7 might make this graph the most
accurate ?