Mike Baillie Professor Emeritus School of Geography, Archaeology and Palaeoecology Queen

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Mike BaillieProfessor EmeritusSchool of
Geography, Archaeology and PalaeoecologyQueens
University Belfast

• Tree-rings suggest that Celtic myths may have a
  core of truth and may record significant
  astronomical events.

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In this power-point presentation

• I intend to show that scientists can reconstruct
  events that are largely missing from history.
• If the story I am going to tell you is even
  remotely true
• Then some things have been written out of
  history but do survive in mythology

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First dendrochronology
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This procedure of overlapping ring patterns

• Resulted in year by year chronologies for many
  temperate areas around the globe.
• Many are precisely dated and extend back 7000
  years or more. For example in Europe there are
  such chronologies for Ireland, Britain, Germany,
  Finland and Sweden, etc.
• All the ring width chronologies are capable of
  being compared at annual resolution.

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So, dendrochronologists

• Can look and see how trees in different areas
  respond to their growth conditions for any year
  or period of years.
• This led to the recognition of global
  environmental downturns
• i.e. events where trees from many different
  regions were negatively affected at the same time

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The best catastrophic global event

• First recognised in Irish tree rings, was at AD
  540.
• 540 was obviously the one to study because it
  lies in the historical period and there should be
  well dated historical information to help work
  out just what caused the event.
• So here is the AD 540 event in Irish oak and
  Zetterbergs Finnish pine chronologies.

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Growth downturn in Irish oak and Finnish pine at
AD 540
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A slight correction

• In the last illustration it is obvious that there
  was a major growth downturn in Irish oak and
  Finnish pine at AD 540.
• However, as more chronologies became available it
  became clear that the event was 2-stage. With
  something in AD 536, a recovery, and something at
  AD 540.
• So the event could be defined as 536-545.

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This was interesting because

• Back in 1983 and 1984 Stothers and Rampino had
  drawn attention to a 18 month dust veil that
  was reported to have affected the Mediterranean
  area in 536-537.
• In these reports the sun had been dimmed and
  caused crop failure and famine. It was implicit
  that the dust veil was due to a big volcanic
  event.

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Growth downturns S America (after Holmes and
Bonensegna) N America (open squares after
Scuderi 1990)
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Temperature anomaly in pines Fennoscandia to N
Siberia (after Briffa, K.M. 1999). Note the clear
2 stage nature
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For comparison here is the 536-545 event in
European oaks sampled from Ireland to Poland,
again showing the two stage nature of the event
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So, across AD 540 (536-545) there is a global
tree-ring event

• To that we can add from history
• A Dim Sun of Dry Fog 536-537
• Terrible famines Ireland to China late 530s
• Maya Hiatus 530s to 590s
• One of the two great plagues of our era - the
  Justinian Plague - starts 542
• Conclusion we had a global environmental
  downturn around 540 inducing famine and plague.

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As early as 1993 the ice cores exposed the lack
of volcanic signal around AD 540.
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So what caused the event?

• Initial hypothesis volcano
• Problem volcanic effects normally 3 years but
  this event lasts much longer.
• Problem no acid in Greenland ice at 540 or
  indeed anywhere 536-545.
• By 2002 there were replicated ice cores, and
• the nearest significant acid layer was dated
• AD 527/-1 (Larsen et al. 2002)

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To be pedantic

• As of 1997 it had been reported by Clausen et al.
  that there were small acid signals in
• Dye3 GRIP
• 534 532
• 530 527
• As far as the ice workers were concerned these
  were not related to 536-545, hence the Larsen et
  al. comment about 527/-1 being the nearest
  significant acid layer.

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There were implications about the lack of ice
acid in 536-545.

• Scientifically, if a global event, with hints of
  a dim sun, was not caused by volcanic activity,
  then the next most likely cause was ..
• Something extra-terrestrial loading the
  atmosphere
• Raising this issue immediately led to the
  consideration of impacts by comet debris

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Interesting thought!

• Contemplating a brush with a comet or its debris
  around 540, I turned to history (to read about
  it).
• As soon as the attempt was made to find out what
  had happened, it was realized that there was
  essentially no history around AD 540.

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What could be found?

• Cassiodorus stops writing 538
• Malalas writes only 21 lines 533-539
• Zachariahs 9 volumes end 536 vol 10 is missing!
• History of the Popes (1750) AD 540 nothing
  happened worthy of notice
• Procopius no help and writes an alternative
  history

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OK

• Gibbon does have a significant comet in 539
• And
• Zachariah does refer to the stars in the sky
  dancing in a strange manner from 533 to 540
• But basically history does not tell us what might
  have happened to cause the tree ring downturn.

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But with the failure of history, enter mythology

• The global event and missing history made it
  curious that the British King Arthur died just
  around 540.
• Either in 542 or just possibly 539 or 537
• Because, as befits any mythological character, we
  dont know his dates!
• E.g. We know exactly when Caesar or Charlemagne
  died, but not King Arthur

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Who was Arthur?

• It didnt take long in the library to find that
  Arthur was a Celtic deity and that his stories,
  and those of his knights, are closely paralleled
  (derived from?) Irish Celtic stories involving
  Celtic deities.
• One trivial example is that his sword is derived
  from other Celtic heroes swords

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Arthurian and Celtic characters

• Fergus and Finn and Mongán and Cúchulainn and
  Arthur and Gawain all share the same sword
  whether it is Gaí Bulga or Caladbolg or
  Caledvwlch or Excalibur.
• or, again
• the abduction of Guinevere (Arthurs
  Queen)...had its source in the Irish abduction of
  Blathnat by Cúroí (Loomis 1927)

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Notice how Cúchulainn has come into the story

• The easiest way to understand this is as follows.
• Go to the library and lift a serious book on
  Arthurian Romance.before you even get to Arthur
  you will find yourself reading about Cúchulainn.
  He is the Ulster hero who is the rebirth of the
  Celtic god Lugh.

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Switch to Cúchulainn

• Cúchulainn is described in one story as follows
• He approaches as a bright youth and undergoes a
  frenzy or paroxysmbut he then heads off the
  next morning as a bright youth againin the
  story
• Cúchulainn has three layers of hair, and can jet
  red blood from the top of his head to the four
  corners of the heavens.

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Could this be Cúchulainn?It is actually Comet
Donati 1858 drawn by G P Bond
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Pause for reflection

• For people to be able to describe detail in a
  comet it would have to be close
• If a comet comes really close to Earth it could
  enter the magnetosphere
• If it did there might well be amazing coloured
  auroral displays
• CúChulainn the comet could jet red blood from
  the top of his head to the 4 corners of the
  heavens. CúChulainn the hero obviously could not!

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In his paroxysm

• CuChulainn could twist himself around internally
• And
• One of his eyes receded into his head and the
  other came out onto his cheekbone
• Hard for a human obviouslybut easy for a
  spinning comet. Here is one

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Comet Donati undergoing interesting distortions
(Donati 1858 drawn by De la Rue)
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So it is quite plausible

• That people in the past observed a comet so
  closely that they could see the details and
• Could use those details in stories relating to
  the antics of the sky god i.e. his battles,
  chases etc
• E.g. battles where he kills thousands
• E.g. chases in the sky
• How do we know this might be correct?

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Well, take the god LUGH

• It seems that Arthur and Cúchulainn are both
  simply versions of the Celtic god Lugh (meaning
  Light).
• In one Irish story we find Lugh described as
• Coming up in the west as bright as the setting
  sun it was impossible to look upon his visage,
  so great was his brilliance...
• Lughs other attributes lamhfada lionnbheimionach
  of the long arm and the mighty blows

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Lugh of the Long Arm

• What can come up in the west, as bright as the
  sun, with a long armand can deliver mighty
  blows?
• Only reasonable answer seems to be
• A comet
• But there may be more to the story.

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Lugh comes up in the west

• Scientifically speaking, if a comet rises in the
  west as Lugh does then it has to be close,
  because it effectively has to overcome the speed
  of the Earths rotation.
• These old stories suggest that there was a comet,
  and it was close to the Earth. Close comets can
  be dangerous.

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And do the stories help?

• Well, in the Irish stories CúChulainn is son of
  Lugh
• No, in the stories it actually says
• CuChulainn is the re-birth of Lugh
• i.e. Lugh back again (return comet)

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Only question is Lughs arm a curved dust
tail or a straight ion tail?
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SO!

• By asking if the AD 540 event could be linked to
  a comet purely from science
• By noting Arthurs death around 540
• And by then noting Arthurs links to Cúchulainn
  and Lugh comet gods
• You can find comet attributes in myth around 540
  from pure myth

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In summaryWhat happened around AD 540?

• A global environmental downturn according to
  trees all over the world, not least in European,
  Irish and English oaks
• Plus in Swedish, Finnish, North Russian,
  Mongolian, N American and S American trees of
  various species
• And a possible brush with a comet.

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What else do we have?

• Well, we had Roger of Wendover
• 540 Battles in the Air
• The reference is probably to aurorae seen in
  France (Brittons suggestion). Roger of Wendover
  has an account of this In the year of grace 541,
  there appeared a comet in Gaul, so vast that the
  whole sky seemed on fire. In the same year there
  dropped real blood from the cloudsand a dreadful
  mortality ensued (Britton, 1937).

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What else?

• Although history seems to have missed this
  global environmental event, several writers do
  refer to it metaphorically
• Gildas
• Zachariah of Mythilene
• An anonymous Irish monk
• AND all with dates

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Gildas and Zachariah

• Gildas c.540 combed the Old and New Testaments
  and selected out a lot of the catastrophic
  (apocalyptic) bits.
• Zachariah writing in 556 tells us that....there
  has been fulfilled against us and against this
  last generation the curse of Moses in
  Deuteronomy. Obviously referring to Biblical
  chastisement in the 20 years before 556

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Once sensitized to the use of metaphor here is
one from an ancient Irish monk

• Amazingly the Irish Annals say this (note the
  date)
• The Age of Christ, 539. The decapitation of
  Abacuc at the fair of Tailltin, through the
  miracles of God and Ciaran that is, a false oath
  he took upon the hand of Ciaran, so that a
  gangrene took him in his neck (i.e. St. Ciaran
  put his hand upon his neck), so that it cut off
  his head
• (ODonovan 1848)

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Twaddle obviously.except

• Except that Abacuc is Habakkuk and the beheading
  motif takes us to The Old Testament, Habakkuk
  Chapter III.
• Hab. III, v13
• thou woundedst the head out of the house of the
  wicked by discovering (making naked) the
  foundation onto the neck
• So what does Habakkuk Chapter 3 tell us?

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Habakkuk III describes catastrophic happenings

• Before him went the pestilence and burning coals
  (or burning diseases) he...drove asunder the
  nations and the everlasting mountains were
  scattered...etc etc
• But the key is verse 4 where it says
• and there were bright beams out of his side

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Is this what the Irish monk was trying to tell us
about AD 539
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Ironically Gibbon tells us directly about the AD
539 comet but the Irish monk used a metaphor you
could wonder why

• But, our anonymous Irish monk didnt just direct
  us to Habakkuk Chapter III. He also left a
  back-up hint by way of confirmation.
• The beheading was at Tailltin (also known as
  Teltown) and is the site of Lughs Fair held at
  Lughnasa (early August)

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The Fair of Tailltinis Lughs Fair

• So, our medieval Irish monk was linking Abacuc
  (Habakkuk) to Lugh, which now makes sense.
  Previously this would have made no sense at all.
• Note the concentration of dates around 540
• Britain Gildas traditionally c.AD 540
• Zachariah the generation that lived across AD
  540
• Irish Annals/Abacuc AD 539

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We could add in Mongans Frenzy.

• Mongan is another Irish aspect of the Lugh deity.
  While Lugh means light or bright, Mongan means
  long haired.
• In 538 Mongan is at the fair at Uisneach (the
  Navel of Ireland).
• Suddenly the sky goes black from East and West
  and there is a horrendous shower of hail-stones.
• To escape Mongan goes to the Otherworld for a
  year. (similar to Arthur going to the Otherworld)
• So that is 538, 539, 540 all highlighted in
  myths

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So

• In the period just around 540 myth and metaphor
  were being used to preserve a record of the
  catastrophic events.
• All of them include at least some mention of
  something to do with either the sky or comets.
• This implies that the authors who were suffering
  bad conditions on the ground 536-545 were
  blaming things in the sky.

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To recap

• There undoubtedly were bad conditions for people
  and trees living AD 536-545.
• Our question is were those bad conditions caused
  by volcanism or by extraterrestrial bombardment?
• We have the dust veil/dim sun records. We have
  the lack of ice core evidence. We have the
  veiled references to comets

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Lets make another aside

• Change caused by the 536-545 events are clearly
  there in the dates for archaeological sites dated
  by dendrochronology (i.e. well dated).
• In the next two illustrations we see the product
  of decades of dating activity in Ireland and in
  the American Southwest

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30 years of Irish dendro results
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(No Transcript)
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So clearly there was archaeological change at
536-545

• Again, once you are sensitized to this you find
  that the effects of the 536-545 events are there
  in old Church History
• In the 19th century Irish Church historians
  listed the foundation dates for religious
  establishments
• If these dates are plotted as a cumulative curve
  it is very clear that in Church memory the
  biggest wave of church building was immediately
  after 536-545.

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Irish Church Foundation Dates indicating a huge
pulse AD 540-550
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So now we know

• 536-545 global tree-ring event
• 536-545 referred to in mythical sources
• 536-545 numerous hints of comets
• 536-545 reflected in archaeology
• 536-545 reflected in church history
• Indeed up to 2008 my scenario was that the AD
  536-545 events were probably the result of
  bombardment by comet debris.

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Then in 2008

• Larsen et al. published the results of a
  re-analysis of three Greenland ice cores.
• They found two major acid spikes at
• AD 529/-2 and AD 533-534/-2
• They proposed that their 533-534 acid was
  actually 536 and that it caused all the effects
  from 536 to 550.
• Volcanoes were back!

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Here we need a short digression.

• Back in 1997 the 6th century acid dates in the
• Dye3 and GRIP cores were
• 514 516
• 527 530
• 532 534
• 572 572
• But I also knew that LaMarche and Hirschboeck had
  raised the possibility that frost rings in
  bristlecone pine trees from California might have
  been due to volcanoes.

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So I had noticed that if you add the frost ring
dates to the ice core dates you see this
541

• Ice acid dates frost date offset
• 514516 522 7
• 531
• 527529 536 8
• 532534 541 8
• 572572 574 2
• Obviously not a consistent enough set of offsets
  to publish as an idea. But still an idea!

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But here are the Larsen et al. 2008 ice
datesadded to an original Clausen et al. 1997
ice date

• 515/-2 (Clausen et al. 1997)
• 529/-2 (Larsen et al. 2008)
• 533.5 /-2 (Larsen et al. 2008)
• 567.5 /-2 (Larsen et al. 2008)
• Now re-plot the offset idea.

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Setting out these new 2008 dates

• Ice acid date frost date offset
• 515 522 7
• 531
• 529 536 7
• 533.5 541 7.5
• 567.5 574 6.5
• Now that looks sensible. Ice acidities
  indicating volcanoes are consistently circa 7
  years before frost rings that might be caused by
  volcanoes.

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Once this is recognised

• We might reasonably ask if the ice core dates are
  too old by about 7 years?
• After all, the tree ring dates are absolute,
  whereas the ice dates have some errors so the
  ice dates could possibly move. So I suggest the
  ice dates are moved forward by 7 years.
• In the following figure I have plotted Grudds
  temperature-sensitive Swedish pine chronology
  with the frost ring dates and the Larsen et al.
  volcano dates plus my suggested volcano dates.

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It looks as though moving the ice acidity dates
forward 7 years would link the moved dates to
both the frost rings and Swedish pine narrow
rings.
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So here are the two possibilities

• If the Larsen et al. dates are correct then there
  was a big volcano at AD 536 in which case there
  is room for a comet to have caused the second
  downturn at AD 540
• If I am right and you move the ice 7 years
• Then two volcanoes (529 and 533-534 in the ice)
  caused the double downturns at 536 and around
  540-541 and comets just got the blame.

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Now the message of all this is

• From 1994 to 2008 the story from the myths
  strongly suggested comets caused the 536-545
  event.
• Now the ice core evidence means that either there
  were volcanoes at 536 and 540-541 (no need for
  comets)
• Or
• There were volcanoes at 531-532 and 536 and an
  extraterrestrial bombardment at 540-541.
• Only when the ice core chronologies are locked
  down tight will we know the answer for sure

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The author

• Would like to thank all those who have generously
  made data available to allow a serious attempt to
  be made to understand the important global
  environmental events that took place between AD
  536 and 545. Events which probably resulted in
  the deaths of one third of the human population
  of planet Earth.