Organizational Leadership MBA 6200

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Organizational Leadership MBA 6200

• Tom Timmerman, Ph.D.
• Associate Professor of Business Management
• ttimmerman_at_tntech.edu

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First

• Dollar Auction
• The Point
• Organizational Behavior
• Predicting Behavior
• Explaining Behavior
• Influencing/Controlling Behavior
• These require cause/effect understanding
• Where does this come from?

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Understanding Cause/Effect

• What happens during a full moon?

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Lunar Beliefs
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Lunar Behavior
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Lunar Reality

• We conclude that there is no significant effect
  of the lunar cycle on the number of deliveries in
  Austria.
• 2,760,362 babies born 1970-1999
• T. Waldhoer, G. Haidinger, C. Vutuc, Gynecologic
  and Obstetric Investigation 20025388-89.
• Statistical analysis showed no significant
  difference in the number of births at full moon
  as compared to that at new moon.
• 3,706 babies born in 1994 at Long Island College
  Hospital
• R. Joshi, A. Bharadwaj, R. Matthews, Prim. Care
  Update Ob Gyns. 1998 5184.
• None of these studies produced evidence of lunar
  periodicities consistent with folklore.
• 50 year review of 27 studies published through
  1994
• I.W. Kelly R. Martens, Psychological Reports,
  1994 75507-511.

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Origins of Cause/Effect

• Where do lunar beliefs come from?

Cause/Effect Understanding
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Evidence-Based Decision Making

• Does human behavior change during a full moon?
• Link

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EB-Medicine Facilitators

• Education
• Learn cause/effect evidence
• Learn how to learn
• Continuing education
• Decision Support
• Cochrane Collaboration

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Yet

• Doctors still resist

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Another example

• Health-care costs?
• HospitalCompare
• Handwashing?

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Evidence-Based Medicine
Year Setting Average compliance
1981 Open ward 16
ICU 30
1981 ICUs 41
ICUs 28
1983 All wards 45
1987 PICU 30
1990 ICU 32
1990 ICU 81
1991 SICU 51
1992 NICU/others 29
1992 ICUs 40
1992 ICUs 40
1994 Emergency room 32
1999 All wards 48
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Evidence-Based Medicine

• Midwest Business Group on Health
• the authors estimate that 30 percent of all
  direct health care outlays today are the result
  of poor-quality care, consisting primarily of
  overuse, misuse, and waste.
• With national health expenditures of roughly 1.4
  trillion in 2001, the 30-percent figure
  translates into 420 billion spent each year as a
  direct result of poor quality.
• In addition, the indirect costs of poor quality
  (e.g., reduced productivity due to absenteeism)
  add an estimated 25 to 50 percent.or 105 to 210
  billion.to the national bill.

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Handwashing at Cedars Sinai
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Evidence-Based Management

• Barriers?

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What counts as evidence?

• Does unfair treatment cause lower job
  satisfaction?
• Weak evidence
• Case studies asking experts asking
  managers/employees
• Suggestive evidence
• Correlational Study
• Strong evidence
• Experimental Study

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Correlational Study

• Example Questionnaires to employees
• Q1 How fairly are you treated by your supervisor?

Very Unfairly Very Fairly
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Q2 How satisfied are you with your job?
Very UnSat Very Sat
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
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Correlational Data
Person Fairness Sat
A 1 2
B 3 4
C 6 5
D 4 6
E 5 2
F 7 6
G 7 7
H 2 4
I 3 4
J 4 5
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Scatterplots Summarize Data
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Scatterplots Summarize Data
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Correlations Summarize Data

• Correlations are between 1.00 and 1.00
• Sign indicates direction of the relationship.
• Closer to 0 means closer to no relationship.

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The problem with correlational studies

• Impossible to rule out alternative explanations.
• Reverse causation
• Does unfair treatment cause lower satisfaction?
• Or does lower satisfaction cause unfair
  treatment?
• Third variable problem
• Perhaps some other variable causes satisfaction
  and treatment to covary (e.g., personality)

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What counts as evidence?

• Does unfair treatment cause lower satisfaction?
• Weak evidence
• Case studies asking experts asking
  managers/employees
• Suggestive evidence
• Correlational Study
• Strong evidence
• Experimental Study

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Experimental Study

• Does unfair treatment cause lower satisfaction?
• Randomly assign people to (at least) two groups
• Group 1 Receives fair treatment
• Group 2 Receives unfair treatment
• Observe satisfaction in each group
• Much less likely that alternative explanations
  produce the relationship.

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Remember

• Each individual study is only one piece of
  evidence.

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How do we summarize the pieces?

• One answer
• Meta-Analysis
• Average correlation/effect adjusted for
• Sample size
• Reliability