Sub-Saharan Africa Team

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Sub-Saharan Africa Team

• Agenda
• Intro to Africa
• Methodology for ranking our issues
• Issues (with multiple slides)
• Sources to use and how they will be applied
• Road Ahead

• Rob Canavosio-Zuzelski
• Curt Hammill
• Bill Mullen
• Ray Simms

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The Size, Diversity and Challenges of Africa
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Ethno-Linguistic Groups
Poor economic policiesrooted in patrimonial
interests and incomplete economic reformwill
likely exacerbate ethnic and religious divides as
well as crime and corruption in many
countries. Nigeria, Ethiopia, and other places
in Africa will remain battlegrounds in this
sectarian struggle.
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Human Development Index
Many countries especially the landlocked and
resource poor ones in Sub Saharan Africalack the
fundamentals for entering the globalization game.
By 2025-2030, the portion of the world considered
poor will shrink by about 23 percent, but the
worlds poorstill 63 percent of the globes
populationstand to become relatively poorer,
according to the World Bank.
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HIV/AIDS in Africa
Although prevention efforts and local behavioral
changes will depress infection rates globally,
experts expect HIV/AIDS to remain a global
pandemic through 2025 with its epicenter of
infection in Sub-Saharan Africa.
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Life Expectancy
Countries with youthful age structures and
rapidly growing populations form an arc of
instability. Three quarters of the three dozen
youth bulge countries projected to linger
beyond 2025 will be located in Sub-Saharan
Africa.
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Methodology
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Criteria for Evaluation
Inside the proper Geographic Context

• Individual Needs
• Food/Water
• Housing
• Fuel
• Security
• Medical
• Country Stability
• Internal Security
• Sufficient material goods
• Economy/Resources
• Education
• Infrastructure
• Trans-National Stability
• Civil Unrest
• Food Instability
• Economic Disparity
• External Influences
• Terrorism

By examining a small number of variables that we
judge probably will have a disproportionate
influence on future events and possibilities
Sub-Saharan Africa
Applied to
the study seeks to help recognize signposts
indicating where events are headed and to
identify opportunities for policy intervention.
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Issue Individual Needs Country Stability Trans-National Stability Total
Globalizing Economy
Shift in Power from West to East 1 1 1 3
Growing Middle Class 2 2 1 5
Resolving Global Imbalances 2 3 3 8
Multiple Financial Nodes 1 1 2 4
Demographics of Discord
Pensioner Boom 0 0 0 0
Youth Bulges 2 2 2 6
Migration, Urbanization, and Ethnic Shifts 1 2 1 5
New Players
China / India 0 1 0 1
Russia / Europe / Japan / Brazil 0 0 0 0
Iran / Indonesia / Turkey 0 0 0 0
Scarcity in the Midst of Plenty (Resources)
Post Petroleum Age 1 2 2 5
Geopolitics of Energy 1 2 2 5
Water, Food and Climate Change 2 2 2 7
S
S
S
S
S
3 Large Impact on SSA 2
Impact on SSA 1 Limited Impact to SSA
0 - Marginal Impact to SSA
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Issue Individual Needs Country Stability Trans-National Stability Total
Growing Potential For Conflict
Arc of Instability 1 2 3 6
Risk of Nuclear Arms Race in Mid-East 1 1 2 4
New Conflicts over Resources 2 2 2 6
Terrorism 1 1 2 4
Afghanistan / Pakistan / Iraq 0 0 0 0
International System
Multi-Polarity without Multilateralism 1 1 1 3
How Many International Systems 0 1 1 2
A World of Networks 0 1 1 2
Power Sharing in a Multi-Polar World
Demand for US Leadership 0 0 1 1
New Old Relationships 0 1 1 2
Less Financial Margin of Error 0 1 1 2
More Limited Military Superiority 0 1 1 2
Surprises and Unintended Consequences 0 1 1 2
Leadership Will be Key 0 1 1 2
S
S
3 Large Impact on SSA 2
Impact on SSA 1 Limited Impact to SSA
0 - Marginal Impact to SSA
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Principal Issues
Sub-Saharan Africa

• Economic Challenges
• Population Stresses
• Resources
• Civil Conflict

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Key Issues
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Economic Challenges

• SSA Is Will Continue to be a Major Supplier of
  Oil, NG, Metals, Jewels
• Income May Not Benefit the Majority of the
  Population
• Poor Economic Policy
• Patrimonial Intersects
• Incomplete Economic Reform
• Will Exacerbate
• Elite/Non-Elite Populations
• Political / Religious Extremes
• Ethnic Divides

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2025 Population Stresses

• SSA will exceed 1 billion people
• 60 will be age 24 or under
• Disease Spread due to Pop. Density
• High Unemployment as economies lag behind
  Population growth
• Massive Investments in infrastructure will be
  needed
• Wars may be needed to distract the citizens from
  internal woes

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Climate Change Impact on Resources
http//www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate-change/guide/i
mpacts/high-end

• Impacts to SSA Region with a 4 Degrees Celsius
  Temperature Change
• Increased Forest Fires
• Crop Damage
• Stress on Water Supplies
• Drought Conditions
• Health Risks (Malaria, Denge Fever,
  Malnutrition)

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Vulnerability to civil conflict

• Sub-Saharan Africa is marked by
• militaries fragmented along ethnic or other
  divides,
• limited control of border areas, and
• insurgents and criminal groups preying on unarmed
  civilians across borders.
• Central Africa contains the most troubling of
  these cases, including
• Congo-Kinshasa, Congo-Brazzaville, Central
  African Republic, and Chad.

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Summary
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What to Watch

• Countries Vulnerable to
• Economic challenges
• Population stresses (Growth and Global Warming)
• Disease
• Education
• Overcrowding
• Political Corruption
• Civil conflicts
• Cross Border insurgency/Crime
• Resource stealing
• Wants what neighbor has
• Hoarding of wealth from resources
• Water Supply (requires focused resource
  investments)
• Major Resource Impacts

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How to Track

• Identify Stable/Unstable countries
• Track Marginal Countries
• Progress or Back-Sliding
• Develop signatures/monitoring keys
• Track trends for predictions
• Civil Wars
• Monitor military actions
• Mobilization efforts
• Impacts to civilians
• Civil Unrest
• Economic Disruptions
• Gatherings in streets
• Govt response

• Infrastructure investment and payoff
• Track public works projects
• Key changes in health/environmental conditions
• Track trends to predict future
• Regional Conditions Mapping
• Context Trend Analysis
• International (extra-regional) actions and
  interactions
• WB/IMF
• International Investments (who what)

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Methodologies

• Remote Sensing GIS can support analysis of
• Population Assessments
• Civil Conflicts
• Economic Development
• Infrastructure Development
• Complimentary Sources
• US Embassy/Political reporting
• NSA and Other Intelligence Sources
• UN Economic and Public Health Reporting
• News services

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Questions