VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT FOR MOZAMBIQUE

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VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT FOR MOZAMBIQUE 1997/1998
An Initial Analysis of Current Vulnerability to
Food and Nutritional Insecurity
Inter-sectoral Vulnerability Assessment and
Mapping Group MAF, MPF, MOH, FEWS, WFP Maputo,
February 1998
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Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping
Domestic Resource Capacity
Risk Analysis
Assessment of District Level Food Production
1) Livestock 2) Fisheries 3) Other sources of
Income 4) Food Systems 5) Land use
1) Droughts 2) Floods 3) Pests 4) Landmines 5)
Physical access 6) Price changes
VULNERABILITY
Targeting Vulnerable districts
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C. Initiatives for a Collaborative Vulnerability
Analysis identify areas and population groups
most vulnerable to food insecurity and specific
nutritional deficiencies and problems promote
inter-sectoral discussion on vulnerability in
Mozambique, its causes and identify important
interventions to mitigate and alleviate hronic
and transitory food insecurity establish links
between vulnerability analysis, policy
formulation and planning interventions and
ensure that there is a capacity within Mozambican
institutions to periodically update the
vulnerability assessment on a regular basis.
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D. A Framework of Analysis Vulnerability the
probability of an acute decline in food access,
or consumption levels, below some critical
value. According to Chambers, vulnerability
represents "defencelessness, insecurity and
exposure to risks, shocks and stress ... and
difficulty in coping with them."
Vulnerability to food and nutritional
insecurity comprises two components the risk
of an event occurring (e.g. drought, cyclone,
floods, and pest outbreaks) and the coping
ability of households to deal with that event
(such as income, asset ownership and other
sources). An assessment of risk and coping
ability should encompass a time frame both for
short and medium-term perspective. Levels of
income and assets (domestic resource capacity)
are important in assuring food security of the
population in the short-term along with
availability and accessibility to health,
nutrition and education services in the medium
and long-term. In the sum
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. Assessment of Risks Conditions for Food
production A Historical Drought-risk Areas.
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C. Flood Risk/Prone Areas First degree risk
consists of 1.7 million hectares within an
elevation of less than 20 metres above sea level
(masl) and within 10 km. distance from major
river basins, Second degree flood risk is
defined by an elevation of 20-50 meters above
sea level (masl) and comprises of 2.7 million
hectares (an estimated 9.6) of national land
cover. Third degree flood risk is defined by
an elevation class of 50 -100 metres asl. and
within 10 km of major rivers consists of nearly
4 million hectares Fourth degree flood risk
is less endemic to flood risk than the other
three types and it can only have an effect in
some years as flood risk associated with dam
water and/or regional floods.
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D Pest Infestation and their Occurrence Red
Locust affects principally maize and attacks are
more common after floods. This pest is endemic in
Buzi District, Sofala Province, Dondo, Nhamatanda
and Gorongoza, Gondola, Manica and Sussundenga in
Manica Province. Green Locust is prevalent in
the coastal zone in the central and northern
provinces of the country, attacking rice and
millet crops during the germination and early
growth stages of plant development in rice and
millet. The spiny locust is endemic in
Changara District in Tete, and its effect is
limited to this area. Army-worm is found
principally in the Central Provinces of Sofala
and Manica affecting maize, sorghum, rice and
beans in the districts of Dondo, Nhamatanda and
Gondola. The emergence of this pest coincides
generally with dry years or low humidity, and
destroys plants in the vegetative growth stage.
Quellea birds are endemic in Gaza province,
and are found principally in Chokwe District.
particularly active in Cabo Delgado Province
where they eat grain, which has been seeded.
Rats also have a heavy impact on maize production
in some districts in the south, mainly after
inundation or dry periods. Rats destroy the ears,
and can destroy 100 of the harvest of a field.
In all the country, rats are the source of large
losses of grain from granaries.
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E. Limitation of Physical Access to Roads
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F. Market Price Changes White maize prices have
risen sharply since the 1996/7 harvest, with an
average increase between June and November 1997
of 92 in the 25 SIMA markets. Sharp price
rises in the Centre and Centre North of the
country Specifically the towns of Beira,
Manica, Chimoio, Tete, Quelimane and Mocuba.
The rise in this area of the country reflects
primarily the heavy export trade that emerged
this year to Malawi as well as probably
withholding of stocks in anticipation of poor
harvest next season. Angoche, Nampula Province
has also seen a sharp rise, likely associated
with its switching from surplus during the
harvest to deficit currently (relatively little
maize is produced in and around the city of
Angoche). In contrast rice prices have been
generally stable this year, with an average
increase of only 3 in the 25 SIMA markets.
Quelimane (35), Montepuez (29) and Chokwe (26)
have shown the largest price increases. Cassava
is a crucial crop for food security, being more
drought resistant than maize and with a harvest
period that falls during the hungry season.
Analysis of cassava prices, however is
problematical for several reasons only a small
proportion of production is marketed and trade
in this product is more localised than for maize
and rice. Prices in individual markets can
rise and fall sharply, and at any point in time
there may be large price differentials between
different markets where prices range from less
than 800 mts/kg to over 5,400 mts/kg. And
price changes from June to November range from
negative 40 to positive 197. The only general
conclusion that can be drawn from the cassava
data is that local cassava prices should be
monitored closely in areas considered vulnerable.
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Table ---. National cash market price behaviour
of maize, rice and manioc during marketing year
1997/98
Source Sistema Nacional de Informacao de
Mercados Agricolas (SIMA, MAP/DE
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G. Conditions of Health and Nutrition Principal
causes of morbidity (1993 - 1996) Malaria,
anaemia malnutrition, pneumonia
measles, TB Meningitis
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H Landmine Risk Landmine, a formidable
threat to human lives, has a long history in
Mozambique --- some were planted during the
struggle for liberation and others during the
civil war. Two types of land mines were
planted the anti-personnel and anti-tank.
Official estimates indicate about 2 million mines
throughout the country. The locations are mostly
related to military defence positions along
roads, military bases, and strategic locations
such as bridges, factories, dams and some
villages. While agricultural land was not
specifically targeted for landmine in terms of
risk to food security, the fear of mines can have
as great an impact as their physical existence.
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II. Analysis and Results Domestic Resource
Capacity 1. Resources Land Use
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B Food Systems of Mozambique The planalto
(highlands) and midlands food system The
lowland plains and coastal food system Major
river basin food system The drylands and
semi-arid food system
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Cows Per Thousand Families
Red Less than 100 Yellow 100-500 Green
500-1000 Pink gt 1000
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Red indicates high numbers of centers while Blue
indicates low numbers of centers
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Those districts with less than 6 months staple
food crop production can be further classified as
follows 1. Those where although staple food
crop production is low, households are accustomed
to relying on purchasing a significant proportion
of their staple food needs. Those districts that
have a more diversified income together with
reasonable market access include Chokwe and
Boane. Districts, which are dependent on market
purchases but have low non-agricultural income
include Marracuene and Moamba. The districts in
this category do not face widespread malnutrition
problems. 2. Those where animal production,
remittances and fishing play an important role
Massangena, Changara, Chicualacuala, Xai-Xai and
Moamba. These districts also have a dependency on
coping strategies such as ganho-ganho, donations,
and consumption of wild plants and fruits. These
districts do encounter nutritional problems, in
particular in drought years. Cases of vitamin C
deficiencies have been reported in Moamba, and in
Changara, pellagra and vitamin A deficiency. 3.
Those with extreme market isolation problems
Magoe, Chemba, Mabalene, Chicualacuala, Govuro,
Maringue, Massangena, Mabote, Chigubo and
Cheringoma. Districts which normally encounter
malnutrition include Magoe, Chemba, Maringue and
Cheringoma which has had cases of pellagra and
vitamin C deficiency reported in drought years
problems occur in Chicualacuala, Massangena,
Mabote and Chigubo. 4. Those where there is
substantial production variation within the
district, e.g. Mutuarara, Guija and Masingir.
This implies the need for intra-district
targeting. Masingir has reported micro-nutriente
deficiencies and Mutarara has general problems
with malnutrition.
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2. An Approach to Targeting Here we are
proposing to introduce an event-driven targeting
of scarce resources. Targeting must consider
variations within a given situation as
vulnerability generated by different disaster
event has different economic, social and
environmental impacts. Targeting Objectives
Allocating food and other resources to
populations that face emergency conditions and
their survival is threatened Assisting
population in absolute poverty and whose
livelihood system has been eroded over time
through food and other resources Providing
non-food resources to poor populations to improve
their food access and utilisation Providing
non-food resources for improved national food
availability Levels of targeting
geographic, community and specific
household /gender targeting. However, due to
limited data availability and the need to conduct
an in-depth analysis of vulnerability issues, the
discussion of initial framework for targeting is
limited to geographic targeting with limited
highlights about group targeting.
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III. Conclusions, Responses and Interventions 1.
Conclusions Key Features of Food Insecure
Districts The following key issue standout from
the analysis 1. The study acknowledges the fact
that agricultural production and other data, in
its present form, does not provide a complete
picture of food availability and access. The
significance of second season crop production,
livestock, fishery and other sources of income
for many districts in the country cannot be over
emphasised. For example, limited assessment of
second season crop suggests that the season
provide, on average 20 - 40 of 1st season
production. In future crop sector analysis, the
government of Mozambique should seriously
consider assessing second season crop assessment
into its national food balance sheet on a regular
basis. Also, future VA analysis should take this
into consideration. 2. The analysis also suggests
that food crop production is very important for
the economy but is not the only determinant of
vulnerability. Fishery, cash crop production,
petty trading, livestock rearing, hunting and
labour migration is important. It should,
however, be noted that there is a significant
variation of these alternative incomes between
households and districts. This is determined by
households' location in a particular food system
or location in a particular geographic areas
(access to South African mine industry). 3.
Current analysis suggests that large number of
districts are vulnerable to both transitory and
chronic food insecurity, even in years of better
than average climatic regimes.
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Current Vegetation Analysis Sample Outputs
December 1991
December 1997
Areas shaded in red show MUCH BELOW NORMAL
vegetation
January 1998
January 1992
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Price Changes between Sep 1997 and Dec 1997
Price change in Major Cities (dec-Sep 97)
Cabo Delagado, Nampula, Niassa, and Zambezia
show high price changes
Red and Yellow indicate areas where prices are
greater than 125 of September prices
in December
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Current Flood Risk Sample output (1996/97)