Title: PARTIE II
1PARTIE II
- Introduction à la Modélisation
-
- à l Optimisation
- Modèle GPIM vs GRP
- Optimisation Overhaul Policy B-H
- Antinomie selon le REX pour la modélisation
MC/MP GPIM_PLP vs GPIM_LLP
2REF 1 cf.Generalized proportional intensities
models for repairable systems. By D.F. PERCY
B.M. ALKALI. Journal of Management
Mathematics(2006) 17,171-185.
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4REF 2 cf. Discontinuous point processes for the
analysis of repairable units .By R.CALABRIA G.
PULCINI. International Journal OF Reliability,
Quality and Safety Engineering (1999) Vol.6,
N.4, 361-382.
5REF 3P_PLP ? cf.Practical Methods for Modeling
Repairable Systems with Time Trends and Repair
Effects. by H. GUO, W. ZHAO A. METTAS.
IEEE(2006).L_LLP ? cf.A New Stochastic Model for
Systems Under General Repair. by H. GUO, W. ZHAO
A. METTAS. IEEE(2007).
6BASELINE MODELS
7? With the power-law intensity baseline
functionLog Likelihood SIMPLE SYSTEM TYPE I
PARTIAL REPAIR (CM ?? (PERCY) , ? (GUO) , ?
(CALABRIA))
8GRAPHIQUE par CALCUL ANALYTIQUE du modèle
P_PLP/PIM_PLPP_PLP?_,t_ (-1/?)Log(1-??t?
)? 3, ? 0.001.
? Exp-?
9? With the log-linear intensity baseline
functionLog Likelihood SIMPLE SYSTEM TYPE I
PARTIAL REPAIR (CM ?? (PERCY) , ? (GUO) , ?
(CALABRIA))
10Log Likelihood MULTI- SYSTEMS TYPE I
(1/2)PARTIAL REPAIR (CM ? ? (GUO))
11Log Likelihood MULTI- SYSTEMS TYPE I
(2/2)PARTIAL REPAIR (CM ? ? (GUO))
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13ESTIMATIONS
14GRAPHIQUES du C.I.F.
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17OPTIMISATION du REMPLACEMENT
18OPTIMISATION du REMPLACEMENT
19OPTIMISATION du REMPLACEMENT
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22INFLUENCE SUR L OPTIMISATION
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25VALIDATION dun MODELE HPP
26VERIFICATION
27VALIDATION dun MODELE GRP
C
?
?
28RE-ANALYSE
LK_HPP - 152.85 AIC_HPP 307.7 BIC_HPP 309.52
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33 GENERALIZED PROPORTIONAL INTENSINTIES
MODELSWhitout Covariates Log Likelihood
SIMPLE SYSTEM GPIM ( CM ? ? PM ? ? )
34EXAMPLE I ? SIMPLE SYSTEM (General Repair)cf.
Scheduling preventive maintenance for oil pumps
using generalized proportional intensities models
by D.F. PERCY B.M. ALKALI. International
Transactions in Operational Research. 14 (2007)
547-563.
35ESTIMATIONS
36ESTIMATIONS AUTEURS
37EXAMPLE I I ? SIMPLE SYSTEM (General
Repair)Cf. A pratical method of predicting the
failure intensity of hydropower generating
units.By X. QIAN Y. WUIEEE 2011
38ESTIMATIONS
39ESTIMATIONS AUTEURS
40EXAMPLE III ? SIMPLE SYSTEM (General
Repair)Cf. Bayesian Prediction of the Overhaul
Effect on a Repairable Systemwith Bounded
Failure Intensity.(International Journal of
Quality, Statistics and Reliability 2010).
41ESTIMATIONS
42ESTIMATIONS AUTEURS
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51OPTIMISATION de la M.P.
52GPIM_PLP ? LK_V - 28.4311 ? 1.13678e-14, ?
7.68063, ?c 0.291656, ?p 0.432698
53GPIM_PLP ? LK_V - 28.4311 ? 1.13678e-14, ?
7.68063, ?c 0.291656, ?p 0.432698
54SIMULATION MONTE-CARLO DU MODELE GPIM_PLP
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