The Information Society Index Emerging Virtual Have and Have Not Countries

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The Information Society IndexEmerging Virtual
Have and Have Not Countries

• Wilford H. Welch
• World Times Inc.
• Stanford University
• December 1, 1999

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Can All Societies Really Catch up?
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Information Societies Must Have Four Legs
Information Society

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The ISI s Four Legs and 23 Variables
SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE Secondary school
enrollment Tertiary school enrollment Newspaper
readership Press freedom Civil liberties
COMPUTER INFRASTRUCTURE PCs installed/capita Home
PCs shipped/household Govt/commercial PCs
shipped/non-agric. workforce Education PCs
shipped/students faculty Networked PCs
Software/hardware spending
INFORMATION INFRASTRUCTURE Telephone
lines/household Telephone faults/lines Television
ownership/capita Radio ownership/capita Fax
ownership/capita Cellular phones/capita Cable/sate
llite TV coverage
INTERNET INFRASTRUCTURE eCommerce spending
Internet home users Internet business users
Internet education users
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Which Countries Does the ISI Track Each Year?

• 55 countries accounting for 96 of global GDP and
  99 of IT expenditures
• Third year of ISI research
• 1999 ISI based on 1997 actual data, 1998
  estimates and 2002 forecasts

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Third Annual ISI Results
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Third Annual ISI Results
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Third Annual ISI Results
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Stroller Stage of Development
Examples Peru - China - Egypt - India -
Indonesia -
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Sprinter Stage of Development
Examples Argentina - Malaysia - Chile - Mexico
- Brazil - Ecuador
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Strider Stage of Development
Examples Australia - Japan - Canada - UK -
Taiwan
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Skater Stage of Development
Examples US - Norway - Finland - Singapore -
Sweden
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(No Transcript)
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In Conclusion, the Reality is The Gaps are
Widening

• Gap 1 US and the rest of the world
• Gap 2 Between the Striders and Sprinters
• Gap 3 Between the 55 ISI countries and the 150
  other countries of the world with 40 of the
  population, 4 of GDP and less than 1 of IT
• Gap 4 Gaps within developing countries

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What are the real drivers?

• Proximity to major information society such as
  the US (e.g. Canada, Israel in terms of
  political/economic patronage
• Distance (e.g. Australia forced by need for
  internal and external communications)
• Political will and effective execution
  (e.g. Singapore)

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In Conclusion, Where Should Countries and
Companies Invest?

• Sustained investment in all four infrastructures
  is key to a societys development, as is
  political will
• Focusing on the US and other fast growing major
  markets is the obvious strategy for vendors but
  consider
• - the early adopters
• - designing products to meet the needs of the
  poorer countries which are currently being
  overlooked