Diapositiva 1

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Joint efforts to develop climate change scenarios
in the Caribbean using regional climate model
Abel Centella Institute of Meteorology Cuba
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• OUTLINE
• Climate Change Scenarios from 1st NC to 2nd NC
• Creating and developing the PRECIS-Caribbean
  initiative
• Status of cooperation and future plans
• Contribution to 2nd NC and other activities
• Lesson learned and beyond

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Climate change scenarios, from 1st to 2nd NC

• In 1st NC many countries used GCM outputs to
  produce climate scenarios. May be MAGICC/SCENGEN
  was one of the more useful tools.
• During and after the 1st NC, many NAI countries
  (mainly SIDS) claim for spatial detailed
  information (downscaling).
• New tools appear since then for downscaling.
  PRECIS is one of them.

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What is PRECIS? Providing REgional Climates for
Impact Studies. A Regional Modeling System that
can be applied to any area of the globe to
generate detailed climate prediction at 25 or 50
km of resolution. It can be running in standard
PCs. Main and initial training is provided by
Hadley Center
GCM grid 3.7 X3.7 degrees
RCM grid 0.5 x 0.5 degrees
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• PRECIS looks easy. But it demands
• Expertise and experience in atmospheric physics
  and climate/weather modeling
• Dedicate PCs to run long-time experiments (six
  months or more)
• Vast amounts of storage space for outputs
• Human resources to understand/analyze outputs and
  to produce REGIONAL results
• Some financial resources (not too much, in some
  cases)

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The PRECIS-Caribbean initiative

• Is a regional collaborative effort to share
  human and financial resources, experiences and
  results
• Was born with a PRECIS training workshop in
  Havana (2003), where Cuba, Jamaica and Barbados
  agree to run different experiments over common
  domains and to share results
• Following workshops took place in Belize, Cuba
  and Jamaica. Community Caribbean Climate Change
  Center provide an strong support and involve
  directly
• Centers within the Caribbean are well committed
  and motivated. Avoiding the PRECIS-Caribbean
  died.

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PRECIS-Caribbean status

• 50 km resolution climate projections are
  available for all the countries within the
  region
• 25 km results are also available for east
  Caribbean countries
• Outputs are now available for SNC. An online
  access was developed by INSMET (http//precis.insm
  et.cu/Precis-Caribe.htm)

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The PRECIS-Caribbean Status and future plans

• Training exercises are now conducted by Caribbean
  institutions. INSMET experts made a training
  exercise supported by CCCCC.
• The initiative is well recognized by Hadley
  Center, which provide an strong support.
• More countries are included in the initiative
  (Belize and Bahamas are starting to run other
  experiments)
• Arrangements for new experiments and reports
  preparation were agree in a recent meeting in
  Belize

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Examples of Results. Tropical Cyclones
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Tropical Cyclone proyections
Historical North Atlantic and East-Central North
Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracks, 1851-2005
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,
Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane
Center
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• Some lesson learned
• PRECIS is more than a tool, it is an opportunity
  for capacity building and technology transfer
• Regional center will realize the importance of
  being part of a process. They will share the task
  of producing relevant regional climate scenarios
  among them.
• The regional research centres must possess a
  willingness to share the results of their efforts
  among them and with the wider community
  (scientific and non-scientific). Motivation
  through service.
• Shared more than results experiences,
  frustrations, region specific solutions
  (especially storage), problem solving and
  analysis techniques

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• Thanks so much!
• Muchas gracias!