Development of a Public Transportation Strategic Plan for Metro Cebu

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Development of a Public TransportationStrategic
Plan for Metro Cebu

• Engr. Ildefonso T. Patdu, Jr.
• Director, Project Development Service
• Department of Transportation and Communications
  (DOTC)

Cebu City BRT Studies Coordination Conference May
9, 2009 Park Lane Hotel, Archbishop Reyes Ave.
and Escario St., Cebu City
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Outline

• Background Metro Cebu
• Transport Strategy
• Role of DOTC
• Objectives of the Project
• Project Activities
• Schedule of Activities

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Background Metro Cebu

• Metro Cebu is composed of four (4) cities of
  Cebu, Mandaue, Lapu-Lapu and Talisay, and the six
  (6) adjacent municipalities of Naga, Minglanilla,
  Liloan, Consolacion, Cordova and Compostela
• Defined in the 1994 Cebu Integrated Area
  Development Master Plan Study (CIADMPS)
• It is the countrys second international gateway
  and has the second largest urban area in the
  Philippines

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High Population Growth

• Over the years, the metropolitan area has been
  experiencing a rapid growth in population and an
  increasing level of urbanization
• From a total of 1,693,881 persons reported in
  2000, the population of Metro Cebu has increased
  to over 2 million in 2007, registering a 2.8
  population growth rate for the period

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Population of Metro Cebu for the Years 2000 and
2007
City/ Municipality Population Population Population Population Population Growth Rate Population Growth Rate
City/ Municipality 2000 Share 2007 Share Population Growth Rate Population Growth Rate
Cebu City 718,821 42.44 798,809 38.97 1.52 1.52
Mandaue City 259,728 15.33 318,575 15.54 2.96 2.96
Lapu-Lapu City 217,019 12.81 292,530 14.27 4.36 4.36
Talisay City 148,110 8.74 179,359 8.75 2.77 2.77
Naga 80,189 4.73 95,163 4.64 2.48 2.48
Minglanilla 77,268 4.56 101,585 4.96 3.99 3.99
Liloan 64,970 3.84 92,181 4.50 5.12 5.12
Consolacion 62,298 3.68 87,544 4.27 4.98 4.98
Cordova 34,032 2.01 45,066 2.20 4.09 4.09
Compostela 31,446 1.86 39,167 1.91 3.19 3.19
Total 1,693,881 100.00 2,049,979 100.00 Ave 2.76
Source Draft EST Casebook (2008), UP-NCTS
The share of Cebu Citys population to Metro Cebu
decreased from 53 of the total population in
1970 to 42 and 39 in 2000 and 2007,
respectively. Among the component cities and
municipalities of Metro Cebu, Cebu City itself
had a decelerating growth rate for the past three
decades while the adjoining cities and
municipalities were growing comparatively faster
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Increasing Use of Private Mode

• The increasing level of urbanization is
  accompanied by a corresponding shift in the
  preferred mode of transportation from public to
  private transport
• The share of trips using private modes at the
  1979 level of 9.7 has increased to 20.6 by the
  year 1992, while the share of public transport
  has decreased from its previous level of 90.3 to
  79.4 during the same period
• Contributes to worsening traffic congestion and
  increasing air pollution levels

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Motor Vehicle Registration in Cebu
Source Draft EST Casebook (2008), UP-NCTS
In 1994-1999, Cebu Citys share ranged from 40 to
55 of the total vehicles registered in Cebu
Province. From 1994 to 2000, motor vehicle
registration in Cebu City tremendously increased
by 42.1, with an average annual growth rate of
7.0 while the increment in 2000 to 2006 was
halved to 21.4 or an average annual growth rate
of 3.6.
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Metro Cebu Travel Demand , 1979-2020
Mode 1979 1979 1992 1992 2012 2012 2020 2020
Private 110,500 9.7 305,666 20.6 515,416 17.1 989,910 23.5
Public 1,028,900 90.3 1,180,408 79.4 2,492,066 82.9 3,229,717 76.5
Total 1,139,400 100.0 1,486,074 100.0 3,007,482 100.0 4,219,627 100.0
Trip Rate 1.10 1.26 1.54 1.61
Notes projected using regression Notes projected using regression Notes projected using regression Notes projected using regression Notes projected using regression Notes projected using regression Notes projected using regression Notes projected using regression Notes projected using regression
Source Cebu City CLUP (2000)
Based on the 1979 Metro Cebu Land Use and
Transport Study (MCLUTS) report and the 1992 Home
Interview Supplemental Survey conducted by the
Metro Cebu Development Project (MCDP) Phase 3,
the Metro Cebu Trip Demand Projection estimated
that the share of trips using the private modes
increased from 9.7 in 1979 to 20.6 in 1992
while the share of trips using public transport
decreased from 90.3 in 1979 to 79.4 in 1992.
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Annual Average TSP Level (ug TSP/N cu. m) in
Selected Stations in Metro Cebu
Source Draft EST Casebook (2008), UP-NCTS
In 1995-2000, all stations were observed to
exceed the 1-year ambient air quality guideline
value for TSP of 90 mcg/N. cu. m. with peak
concentrations occurring in 1999. In 2001-2006,
there has been a slight improvement due to
presence of annual average concentration values
below the guideline value. Around 1-2 stations
still exceed the guideline value. With few
available data, the annual average concentrations
of PM10 were also obtained and it was observed
that there was one station that exceeded the
guideline value of 60 mcg/N. cu. m. in 2002-2003.
This indicates that air pollution is still a
continuing problem for the city.
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Cost of Air Pollution
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Cost of Air Pollution

• The Philippines Environment Monitor study (World
  Bank, 2002) quantified the detrimental effect of
  air pollution on the health, productivity and
  quality of life into economic values and it
  estimated that the total cost of the exposure to
  PM10 in the four cities of Metro Manila, Baguio,
  Cebu and Davao adds up to over US430 million.
• Among the four cities, Cebu City ranked second to
  Metro Manila in derived costs, which in 2001, was
  equivalent to US16 million.

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Cost Traffic Congestion
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Transport Strategy

• As a possible strategy to alleviate congestion
  along the heavy traffic corridors of Metro Cebu
  and to arrest the increasing level of air
  pollution in the area, the development and
  promotion of public transportation is envisioned
• It is noted that the last comprehensive transport
  study for the metropolitan area was the Metro
  Cebu Land Use and Transport Study (MCLUTS), which
  was conducted way back in 1978 by the then
  Ministry of Public Works, Transportation and
  Communication (MPWTC) with technical assistance
  from the Government of Australia.

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Role of DOTC

• The Department of Transportation and
  Communications (DOTC) as the lead agency
  responsible for the promotion of Environmentally
  Sustainable Transport (EST) intends to support
  Metro Cebu in the promotion and development of
  public transportation
• DOTC intends to engage the services of a
  qualified consulting firm for the development of
  a Public Transportation Strategic Plan for Metro
  Cebu that will span a planning horizon of up to
  the year 2020. The Plan is expected to provide
  the blueprint for the development and promotion
  of public transportation in Metro Cebu within the
  established planning horizon

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Role of DOTC

• The DOTC moreover intends that the Public
  Transportation Strategic Plan for Metro Cebu will
  be developed with the use of sketch planning
  methodology and tools
• The key idea of sketch planning method is to
  facilitate the generation of alternatives quickly
  and easily.

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Sketch Planning Methodology

• The methodology shall incorporate both
  demand-side and supply-side aspects of public
  transportation that is able to analyze various
  planning scenarios and perform what-if types of
  analysis
• The analysis shall take into consideration
  existing development plans for Metro Cebu over a
  planning horizon of 20 years with 2009 as the
  Base Year.

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Sketch Planning Methodology

• Main features
• Adopting the logic structure of the traditional
  transportation modeling process
• Limiting the classification of trip purposes
  (working, schooling, shopping and others) and
  trip modes (private car, transit and walking)
• Setting the appropriate zoning system (grouping
  of residents and activities) that are consistent
  with past zoning systems, especially MCLUTS
• Updated network representation with appropriate
  level of aggregation
• Utilization of past origin-destination (OD)
  tables as bases for OD table updating and
• Modest model calibration but where practicable
  employ extensive use of matrix estimation
  techniques

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Objectives of the Study

1. Identify the traffic corridors in the
   metropolitan area where the promotion and
   development of public transportation would be
   most effective in addressing the emerging
   problems of increasing traffic congestion and air
   pollution
2. Establish and provide the necessary directions
   and appropriate strategies for the development
   and promotion of public transportation in Metro
   Cebu in the short, medium and long term periods
3. Generate a shopping list of potential programs
   and projects for the short, medium and long term
   planning horizons

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Objectives of the Study

1. Identify list of high priority programs and
   projects that may be considered by the DOTC
   and/or other concerned stakeholders
2. Establish the relative viability of selected high
   priority programs and projects for
   implementation and
3. Provide the DOTC a sketch planning methodology
   and tools for use in future updating of the Plan.

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Project Activities

1. Compilation and Assessment of Existing Data
2. Development of a Public Transportation Sketch
   Planning Methodology
3. Conduct of Transport and Traffic Surveys
4. Development of Public Transportation Sketch
   Planning Tool
5. Development of a Metropolitan-Wide Public
   Transportation Strategic Plan
6. Conduct of Pre-Feasibility Studies for Identified
   High Priority Projects

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Schedule of Activities
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Thank you!