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European FET-Flagship initiativeA
cross-sectional ICT - draft version 0.2
-"Ubiquitous Complex Event Processing
interdisciplinary together with        
computational socio-geonomics, neuroscience,
epigenetics, brain research, epidemic,
weather/global catastrophe emergency management
etc.
WORKSHOP FET-FLAGSHIP INITIATIVE, Brussels, 9-10
June 2010
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The forecast of Ubiquitous CEP for the next
decades

• The forecast of Prof. David Luckham
• until 2020 and beyond
• we are only at the end of the period of Simple
  CEP

• European Challenges and Flagships 2020 and Beyond
  Topics from the ISTAG, to be launched by 2013
• Understanding life through future ICT
• Anticipation by simulation Managing complex
  systems with future ICT
• - Future Information Processing Technologies
• - The Team Player Future Problem Solving
  Technologies
• Robot Companions for Citizen
• ftp//ftp.cordis.europa.eu/pub/fp7/ict/docs/fet-pr
  oactive/press-17_en.pdf

3
The Challenge and the Principle of
Event-driven-(B)PM Reference Model
Rainer v. AmmonEvent-Driven Business Process
Managementin the Encyclopedia of Database
Systems, Ling Liu and M. Tamer Özsu (Eds.),
Springer-Verlag, 2009.
Monitoring Cockpits
realize scenarioprocess instances set parameters
Process Modeler
Domain specific reference models for event
patterns
Event Modeler
Monitor / Analyze / Act

Process Engine e.g. based on BPEL
Processes
Model Scenario
unus mundus- Internet services and their events
CEP Engine special SQLresp. other languages
AppServer
analysehistory
Event Store
Normalized events,build business level events
IF AND FOLLOWED BYWITHINACTION
Adapterse.g. RFID, topics of Pub/Sub,
e.g. JMS pub/sub
e.g. payments
show BAM-view,trigger a BP,change BP-flow
Low Level Event Streams
e.g. GPS-signal
e.g. Traffic Message Controls
e.g. Weather Forecast
e.g. RFID
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A Reference Model of non-deterministic approach -
ED-(B)PM-based Situational Awareness
Model works also for counterterrorism,
catastrophe or epidemic predicting etc.
e.g. fraud management processes
. . .
alert
Real-time BAM, statistics
alert
alerts
. . .
neural network
needed to filter unkown suspicious event patterns
feed forward step
input current and historic discriminant values
trigger fraudmanagementprocess
not fraudsuspicious
fraudsuspicious
preclassification
needed to reduce the amount of suspicious event
patterns
known suspicious eventpatterns
CEP-engine
needed to process thousands of events per sec
. . .
adapter forevent type-1
adapter forevent type-n
suspend transaction process
event cloud
. . .
instance-1
e.g. ATMs in Tokyo, Rome, Munich
transaction processes
. . .
. . .
instance-n
e.g. Internet banking
Rainer von Ammon, Thomas Ertlmaier, Opher Etzion,
Alexander Kofman, Thomas Paulus    Integrating
Complex Events for Collaborating and Dynamically
Changing Business ProcessesICSOC/ServiceWave
2009, Mona workshop, Nov 23-24, 2009 Stockholm,
Sweden
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NESSIs ETP - NEXOF-Reference Architecture
enhanced by edBPM
Rainer von Ammon, Christoph Emmersberger , Thomas
Ertlmaier , Opher Etzion, Thomas Paulus , Florian
SpringerExisting and Future Standards for
Event-Driven Business Process ManagementDEBS
2009. 3rd ACM International Conference on
Distributed Event-Based Systems. July 6-9, 2009
Nashville, TN, USA
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Impact Current domains of Ubiquitous CEP and
their interdependencies What we are already
going to start
SmartIntelligenceEnhancing
SmartBrain Resarch
will be integrated
SmartEpigenetics
SmartBio-Computing
SmartLHC CERN
SmartComputationalSocio-Geonomics
smart means based on CEP/ed(B)PM
7
Enhancing human intelligence and cognitive or
physical abilitiesconnect humans to more events
of the universe (resp. Internet services)
e.g. Ray Kurzweil Singularity is Neare.g. Bruce
H. Lipton Epigenetics Intelligent cellse.g.
Kevin Warwick Brain Computer Interface - Cyborg
Monitoring Cockpits
Enhanced abilities
realize scenarioprocess instances set parameters
Process Modeler
Domain specific reference models for event
patterns
Event Modeler
Monitor / Analyze / Act
Protein machinery

Process Engine e.g. based on BPEL
Intracellular effectors Event Processing Agents
Processes
Intracellular effectors Event Processing Agents
Model Scenario
unus mundus- Internet services and their events
Intracellular effectors Event Processing Agents
Protein machinery
CEP Engine special SQLresp. other languages
AppServer
analysehistory
Event Store
Normalized events,build business level events
IF AND FOLLOWED BYWITHINACTION
Adapterse.g. RFID, topics of Pub/Sub,
Extracellular receptors event adapters
e.g. JMS pub/sub
e.g. payments
show BAM-view,trigger a BP,change BP-flow
Low Level Event Streams
e.g. GPS-signal
e.g. Traffic Message Controls
e.g. Weather Forecast
e.g. RFID
8
Enhancing human intelligence and cognitive or
physical abilitiesconnect humans to more events
of the universe (resp. Internet services) e.g.
SmartNavigation
e.g. Ray Kurzweil Singularity is Neare.g. Bruce
H. Lipton Epigenetics Intelligent cells
Monitoring Cockpits
Enhanced abilities
realize scenarioprocess instances set parameters
Process Modeler
Domain specific reference models for event
patterns
Event Modeler
Monitor / Analyze / Act
Protein machinery

Process Engine e.g. based on BPEL
Intracellular effectors Event Processing Agents
Processes
Intracellular effectors Event Processing Agents
Model Scenario
unus mundus- Internet services and their events
Intracellular effectors Event Processing Agents
Protein machinery
CEP Engine special SQLresp. other languages
AppServer
analysehistory
Event Store
DriverProfile
Normalized events,build business level events
IF AND FOLLOWED BYWITHINACTION
Adapterse.g. RFID, topics of Pub/Sub,
Extracellular receptors event adapters
e.g. JMS pub/sub
e.g. payments
show BAM-view,trigger a BP,change BP-flow
Low Level Event Streams
e.g. GPS-signal
e.g. Traffic Message Controls
e.g. Weather Forecast
e.g. RFID
9
Enhancing human intelligence and cognitive or
physical abilitiesconnect humans to more events
of the universe (resp. Internet services)
e.g. Ray Kurzweil Singularity is Neare.g. Bruce
H. Lipton Epigenetics Intelligent cells
Monitoring Cockpits
Enhanced abilities
realize scenarioprocess instances set parameters
Process Modeler
Domain specific reference models for event
patterns
Event Modeler
Monitor / Analyze / Act
Protein machinery

Process Engine e.g. based on BPEL
Intracellular effectors Event Processing Agents
Processes
Intracellular effectors Event Processing Agents
Model Scenario
unus mundus- Internet services and their events
Intracellular effectors Event Processing Agents
Protein machinery
CEP Engine special SQLresp. other languages
AppServer
analysehistory
Event Store
Normalized events,build business level events
IF AND FOLLOWED BYWITHINACTION
Adapterse.g. RFID, topics of Pub/Sub,
Extracellular receptors event adapters
e.g. JMS pub/sub
e.g. payments
show BAM-view,trigger a BP,change BP-flow
Low Level Event Streams
e.g. GPS-signal
e.g. Traffic Message Controls
e.g. Weather Forecast
e.g. RFID
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Brain Research Understanding human intelligence
and the nature of consciousnessHow a region of
the cortex makes specific predictions from
invariant memories
e.g. Jeff Hawkins On intelligence How the
prediction framework workse.g. Blue Brain
Project EPFL (CH), IBM Blue Gene If we build
it correctly it should speak and have an
intelligence and behave very much as a human
does Henry Markram
Monitoring Cockpits
NeuroColumn
realize scenarioprocess instances set parameters
Process Modeler
Domain specific reference models for event
patterns
Event Modeler
Monitor / Analyze / Act
Protein machinery

Process Engine e.g. based on BPEL
Intracellular effectors Event Processing Agents
Processes
Intracellular effectors Event Processing Agents
Model Scenario
unus mundus- Internet services and their events
Intracellular effectors Event Processing Agents
Protein machinery
CEP Engine special SQLresp. other languages
AppServer
analysehistory
Event Store
Normalized events,build business level events
IF AND FOLLOWED BYWITHINACTION
Adapterse.g. RFID, topics of Pub/Sub,
Extracellular receptors event adapters
e.g. JMS pub/sub
e.g. payments
show BAM-view,trigger a BP,change BP-flow
Low Level Event Streams
e.g. GPS-signal
e.g. Traffic Message Controls
e.g. Weather Forecast
e.g. RFID
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Robot Companions for Citizen Cyborgs, driven by
Event Processing
e.g. Kevin Warwick Cyborgs and Brain Computer
Interface
realize scenarioprocess instances set parameters
Process Modeler
Domain specific reference models for event
patterns
Event Modeler
Monitor / Analyze / Act

Process Engine e.g. based on BPEL
Processes
Model Scenario
unus mundus- Internet services and their events
CEP Engine special SQLresp. other languages
AppServer
analysehistory
Event Store
Normalized events,build business level events
IF AND FOLLOWED BYWITHINACTION
Adapterse.g. RFID, topics of Pub/Sub,
e.g. JMS pub/sub
e.g. payments
show BAM-view,trigger a BP,change BP-flow
Low Level Event Streams
e.g. GPS-signal
e.g. Traffic Message Controls
e.g. Weather Forecast
e.g. RFID
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DNA-based Biocomputersthe obviously appropriate
computer technology for CEP/ed(B)PM because of
massive parallel processing
A million faster than traditional von-Neumann
computers
NeuroColumn
realize scenarioprocess instances set parameters
Process Modeler
Domain specific reference models for event
patterns
Event Modeler
Monitor / Analyze / Act

Process Engine e.g. based on BPEL
Processes
Model Scenario
unus mundus- Internet services and their events
CEP Engine special SQLresp. other languages
AppServer
analysehistory
Event Store
Normalized events,build business level events
IF AND FOLLOWED BYWITHINACTION
Adapterse.g. RFID, topics of Pub/Sub,
e.g. JMS pub/sub
e.g. payments
show BAM-view,trigger a BP,change BP-flow
Low Level Event Streams
e.g. GPS-signal
e.g. Traffic Message Controls
e.g. Weather Forecast
e.g. RFID
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Computational Socio-Geonomics / Social Simulation
/ e.g. 10 Billion AgentsEmergences of the
Computational Socio-Geonomics discipline
correspond to Complex Events of the
CEP/ed(B)PM discipline
e.g. Ron Sun 2006 Cognition and Multi-Agent
Interaction From Cognitive Modeling to Social
Simulation
e.g. John Sutcliffe-Braithwaite Socionome
Metaloger Project
Agents Based Modelers
realize scenarioprocess instances set parameters
Process Modeler
Domain specific reference models for event
patterns
Event Modeler
Monitor / Analyze / Act

Process Engine e.g. based on BPEL
ComputationalSocio-GeonomicsandSocialSimulatio
n(Complex Systems)
Processes
Model Scenario
unus mundus- Internet of Services and Things
and their events
CEP Engine special SQLresp. other languages
AppServer
analysehistory
Event Store
Normalized events,Strong Emergences Complex
Events
IF AND FOLLOWED BYWITHINACTION
Event (Weak Emergences)Adapters
emergence type 1
show BAM-view,trigger a BP,change BP-flow
Low Level Event Streams ( Weak Emergences)
emergence type 2
emergence type n
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Computational Socio-Geonomics / Social Simulation
/ e.g. 10 Billion AgentsUbiquitous CEP/edPM e.g.
as the ICT platform for the Metaloger-idea of
University of Reading
John Sutcliffe-Braithwaite Socionome Metaloger
Project
15
lt to be adapted according to Zurich workshop gt
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Interdisciplinary cooperations based on a
cross-sectional ICT Ubiquitous CEP

• Enhancing human intelligence and cognitive or
  physical abilities
• Ray Kurzweils understanding of CEP
  Singularity is Near / Stanford Singularity
  University
• Mapping of Ray Kurzweilss and David Luckhamss
  forecast until 2050 and beyond
• Kevin Warwicks Cyborg Brain-Computer Interface
• Intelligent machines based on a layered CEP
  like human brains cortex
• Jeff Hawkinss understanding of CEP On
  Intelligence
• Memory-prediction framework
• Prediction and (event) patterns
• Henry Markams Blue Brain Project
• Understanding life - Epigenetics and CEP
• Cell membrane as an organic information
  processor, receptors, effectors, protein
  machinery, reverse transcriptase and event
  processing, an individual as a combination of
  fifty trillion of collaborating event processing
  cells Bruce Liptons Biology of Belief
• Event adapters, Event Processing Agents, Event
  Processing Networks as the analogy of CEP
• Epigenetics-research-portal for Germany, Austria,
  Switzerland

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Interdisciplinary cooperations based on a
cross-sectional ICT Ubiquitous CEP

• Understanding life - Brain research and CEP
• E.g. the long and the most recent discussion
  about Free Will
• The position of the brain researchers Wolf
  Singer, Gerhard Roth et al.
• The world as a deterministic whole based on Event
  Processing
• Concerns, e.g. of Jürgen Habermas
• Understanding life - Consciousness and memory
  technology
• Storing, modifying, transferring of consciousness
  and the relation with CEP
• Theory of Hans Moravec, Otto E. Rössler, Ray
  Kurzweil
• Concerns, e.g. of Klaus Heinerth, University of
  Munich
• Individual consciousness, consciousness of
  groups, cosmic consciousness (Jörg Starkmuth)
  what would we store, modify, transfer?

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Interdisciplinary cooperations based on a
cross-sectional ICT Ubiquitous CEP

• Universe and Events Large Hadron Collider of
  CERN
• Higgs Boson, Higgs Field, Big Bang, From energy
  to matter
• Event processing at CERN means- 600 millions
  events per second, a lot of sensors for different
  event types- event filtering, event enrichment,
  event processing as cloud computing by more than
  100.000 computers, at present C coded- goal
  find the Higgs bosonQuestions to be discussed
  could be- strategy for the detection of Higgs
  boson- can be solved by a CEP approach?- what
  kind of EPL would be appropriate?- is there a
  need for a flexible and fast changing EP-logic?
• Smart Healthcare based on CEP/ed(B)PM
• SmartHealthcare and Diabetes for a better, more
  autonomous life
• SmartHealthcare and Depression Depression - A
  defect of Event Processing?
• Smart Emergency Management
• City/Location specific emergencies as Simple
  CEP/ed(B)PM versus global emergencies taking the
  example of Solar Storm 2012

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Interdisciplinary cooperations based on a
cross-sectional ICT Ubiquitous CEP

• Smart Computational Socio-Geonomics
• Concept of Weak and Strong Emergences ? to be
  mapped on Complex Events
• An ICT platform for Social Simulation means-
  around 10 billion agents in future- millions or
  even billions of events per second, - a lot of
  sensors for different event types (smart dust,
  foglets)- appropriate modeling approach for
  simulation scenarios- easily to use and
  domain-appropriate Event Programming Language-
• A list of use cases and scenarios from the Zurich
  workshop- interdisciplinary and systems
  thinking to advise private and public
  organizations on such matters as diverse global
  trends, plausible scenarios, emerging market
  opportunities, and risk management-

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Challenges Addressed by the ETHZ proposal
FuturIcT

• Forces like environmental and demographic change,
  globalization, scarcity of resources, and
  financial instabilities drive our social and
  economic systems out of equilibrium
• Consequences are social unrests, migration, and
  wars, losses of lives and material values (14.000
  billion US in the financial crisis alone).
  Lending system of banks is still not working
  well. 6 European countries close to bankruptcy.
• Everything from financial failure to economic
  success, from the spreading of diseases to
  cultural values, from the success of products and
  policies to terrorism and war is a matter of
  collective social dynamics

• We must urgently close the gap between existing
  socio-economic problems and solutions. Enable
  large numbers of people to collectively solve
  large-scale problems, and to come up with
  solutions before a problem occurs.
• Spend 1 permille of above amount to avoid further
  disasters like this
• Need paradigm shifts
• New ways of computing (using graphics processing
  units, non-von Neumann)
• New ways of modeling (multi world views)
• From data fitting to reverse engineering
• New ways of analyzing insufficient data
• Zero-delay measurement of social systems through
  sensing technologies
• Towards understanding the patterns of
  techno-social and economic change
• Creative, integrative systems design

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Impact Current domains of Ubiquitous CEP and
their interdependencies What we are already
going to start
SmartIntelligenceEnhancing
SmartBrain Resarch
will be integrated
SmartEpigenetics
Interdisciplinary FET-flagship proposal based
on Computational Socionomics, Epigenetics, Brain
Research, BioComputing, and Ubiquitous Complex
Event Processing / Event-Driven Process Management
SmartBio-Computing
SmartLHC CERN
SmartComputationalSocio-Geonomics
smart means based on CEP/ed(B)PM
22
Expected support EASSy team Event-driven
Adaptivity of Service-based Systems
Proposal got status NESSI Strategic Project Oct
2009
23
Expected support CloudBox team
Technology-Enhanced-Learning based on edBPM
Virtual University-Proposal for ICT Call 5,
objective 4.2, Oct 2009
24
Expected support lt to be filled by more projects
gt
lt e.g. Project SOCIONICAL http//www.esl.fim.uni-p
assau.de/page/research/externally-funded-projects.
html gt
25
Expected support, international partners and
sources

• ?NESSI / EFII?
• Event Processing-Technical Society (EPTS) -
  http//www.ep-ts.com/
• David Luckham The Power of Events An
  Introduction to Complex Event Processing in
  Distributed Enterprise Systems. Addison-Wesley
  2002
• Opher Etzion, Peter Niblett Event Processing in
  Action. Manning 2010http//www.citt-online.com/d
  ownloads/EPIA20for20experts20meeting.ppt
• K. Chandy, W. Schulte Event Processing
  Designing IT Systems for Agile Companies.
  McGraw-Hill 2010
• Ray Kurzweil The Singularity Is Near When
  Humans Transcend Biology. Viking Adult 2005
• Jeff Hawkins On Intelligence. Times Books 2004
• Bruce H. Lipton The Biology of Belief. Mountain
  of Love 2005
• Dennis Bray Wetware A Computer in Every Living
  Cell. Yale University Press 2009
• Wolf Singer Der Beobachter im Gehirn Essays zur
  Hirnforschung. Suhrkamp 2009
• Henry Markram Blue Brain Project
• Kevin Warwick Cyborg Brain-Computer Interface
• John Morgan Allman Evolving Brains. W.H. Freeman
  Company 1999
• Hans Moravec When will computer hardware match
  the human brain? Robotics Institute, Carnegie
  Mellon University, Pittsburgh 1997,
  http//www.transhumanist.com/volume1/moravec.htm
• Hans Moravec Die Wirklichkeit ist ein Konstrukt
  des Bewußtseins. http//www.heise.de/tp/r4/artikel
  /6/6038/1.html
• Jörg Starkmuth Die Entstehung der Realität. Bonn
  2008
• Klaus Heinerth Können Computer Bewußtsein
  entwickeln? 1998, http//www.heinerth.de/Computerb
  ew.htm
• Rolf Landua Am Rand der Dimensionen Gespräche
  über die Physik am CERN. Suhrkamp 2009
• R. Sun, Cognition and Multi-Agent Interaction
  From Cognitive Modeling to Social Simulation.
  Cambridge University Press, New York. 2006.