?????????? Nuclear Strategy and Missile Defense

1
??????????Nuclear Strategy and Missile Defense

• ?????
• (?4?)
• ???? ?

2
????????? ?21???????????

• ?????????????
• 2006?5?13? Washington DC
• ?East-West Center??(13?????????)
• 2007???????
• ?????????????
• ???????????
• ????? ???????
• ????? ????????
• ????? ??????
• ?????????
• ??????????
• ???????????

3
????????? ?21???????????

• ?????????
• ?????????
• ????????????????
• ????????
• ???????????????
• ???????(Security Complex)????
• ??/??/????????/???/???
• ????????
• ???
• ??????????(NPT/IAEA)????
• ????
• ????????
• ?????????????(PSI)

4
?4??????

• ?2?????????????????????????????
• ?????9.11??????????????????
• ??????????????????????????

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?????(Nuclear Revolution)

• ????????????????????
• ????????
• ??2???????????????
• ???????????????????
• ??? TNT???1?5000?
• ?????? ????100???
• ???? 60????(?2????????
• ??????20????)
• ??????????????????????

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???????????????

• ????????
• ??????????(???3???
• ???????? ????
• ?????????(Long Peace)?
• ????????(Haves)???????(Have Nots)???????
• More May be Better ? (Kenneth Waltz)
• 5????????????(NPT?????????
• ?????????
• ????????????(??)/????(????)
• ???????????(??????????)

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??????(???)?3??

• ????????????
• ????(?????2???)?????????????
• ???????????????
• ?????1???????????????????????????????????
• ???????????????
• ?????????????????????????????(escalation control)

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??3??Nuclear Triad
??????(ICBM)
????? (Bomber)
?????????(SLBM)
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??????????(1945-2002)
Source
Source National Defense University
10
2003???????
Source SIPRI 2003
11
???????????

• ??????(John F. Dulles)
• ?????? (Robert McNamara)
• ???????? (Robert McNamara)
• ???? (Harold Brown)

????????????? Cf. ???????
12

• ?????? (Massive Retaliation)
• ?????????????????????????????????????????????????
• 1954??JF??????????
• ? 60??????????3??????
• ?????? (Flexible Response)
• ?????????????????????????????????????
• ??????????????????????????????????????
• 1961??R????????????

13
???(Counter-Value)????(Counter-Force)

• ???(Counter-Value)
• ????????????????????????
• ???????????????????
• ???(Counter-Force)
• ????(?????????????????????????????)????????????
• ??????????????????????????????????(CEP)??????????

14
?????(circular error probability)

• CEP
• ??????????????????????????????????????????
• ???ICBM?CEP
• Peace Keeper
• ??11,000km
• CEP 90m
• Minuteman II
• ??12,500km
• CEP 200m

15

• ????????
• (Mutual Assured Destruction MAD)
• ?????1????????2?????????????????????????????
• ??????1/3??1/4?????2/3?????????
• ????(Countervailing)
• ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ?????????
• ??????(????????)???????????????????

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??????(MAD)?ABM????

• ???1968???????????????(ABM)??????
• ABM??????????????????????????????????!
• ??????????????????(parity)????ABM?????????????????
  
• ????????(?????Balance of Terror)
• ???????????????ABM?????(1972?5?)
• ???ICBM????2??(?????1?????)100???????

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???????

• ?????????????????????(?????????????)???????????
  ???
• ??????????????????????????????
• ??????????????????????????????

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???????

• ?1???????(1994?9?)
• ????????????????????????????????????????????
• ?2???????(2002?1?)
• ?????(Threat Based Approach)???????(Capability
  Based Approach)?
• ???3??(New Nuclear Triad)
• ??????(???????)
• ??????(??????????)
• ??????????????????????????????

20
?????????(2001?5?)
We need new concepts of deterrence that rely on
both offensive and defensive forces.  Deterrence
can no longer be based solely on the threat of
nuclear retaliation.  Defenses can strengthen
deterrence by reducing the incentive for
proliferation. We need a new framework that
allows us to build missile defenses to counter
the different threats of today's world.  To do
so, we must move beyond the constraints of the 30
year old ABM Treaty.  This treaty does not
recognize the present, or point us to the
future.  It enshrines the past. No treaty that
prevents us from addressing today's threats, that
prohibits us from pursuing promising technology
to defend ourselves, our friends and our allies
is in our interests or in the interests of world
peace.
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???????????

• SDI
• (Strategic Defense Initiative1984-1989)
• GPALS
• (Global Protection Against Limited
  Strikes1989-1993)
• TMD/NMD
• (Theater/National Missile Defense 1993-2001)
• MD
• (Missile Defense2001-Current)

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???????????

• ???????
• ?????????SM-3????????2)????????????????????PAC-3?
  ???????3)????????(BADGE????)??BMD?????????????????
  ????(??16/17??)
• ????????
• ????????????????????????????????????????????(?????
  ???????????)?????????(??????????????)?

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????????????????

• 1) ?????? (??)
• 2) ??????? (??)
• 3) ?????? (????)

???1 ??? 1)?????????????? 2)?????????? ???2
????? 1)??????????? 2)????????
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?????(??????)?????(??????a)

• ??????????????
• ?????????
• ????????????????
• ???????????
• ???????????????????
• ?????????
• ?????(??????)
• ?????(???????)
• ???????????????

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?
??(???)
?????
Nuclear Deterrence
Missile Defense
Preemption
??????????
????
???
???
Conventional Deterrence Diplomacy
Passive Defense Damage Limitation Law
Enforcement
?
???
??
??????