Locating the Dropout Crisis

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Locating the Dropout Crisis

• Which High Schools Produce the Nations Dropouts?
• Where Are They Located?
• Who Attends Them?
• Robert Balfanz and Nettie Legters
• Center for Social Organization of Schools
• Johns Hopkins University
• June 2004

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Background

• CRESPAR
• Talent Development High Schools
• Markers of Low Performing High Schools
• Poor prior preparation
• Poor attendance, high mobility
• Large, impersonal organization
• Massive course failure
• Low promotion, high dropout, and low graduation
  rates

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Where Did All TheFreshmen Go?
12th Graders
197
11th Graders
259
10th Graders
327
9th Graders
484
Number of 9th Graders in 1996/97 669 Fewer
12th graders in 1999/2000 than 9th graders
1996/97 71
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Promoting Power

• Twelfth grade enrollment Yr X
• Ninth grade enrollment Yr X-4
• Is it a perfect estimate of dropout/graduation
  rates?
• Is it a good first order indicator of a low
  performing high school, easily calculable and
  using readily available data?
• Does it address NCLB guidelines?
• Harvard Civil Rights Project Forums 2001, 2003

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How Many High Schools Have Weak Promoting Power?

• 900-1,000 High Schools have Promoting Power of
  50 or less
• About 2,000 High Schools have Promoting Power of
  60 or less

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• The Number of High Schools with Weak Promoting
  Power Grew During the 1990s

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• The Gap Between HSs with Weak Promoting Power
  and the National Norm is a striking 40 to 60
  Percentage Points

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• Who Attends High Schools that Produce the
  Nations Dropouts?

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High Schools with Weak Promoting Power are
Overwhelmingly Majority Minority

• A Majority Minority HS is Five Times More Likely
  to have Weak Promoting Power Than a Majority
  White School

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• 50 Years After Brown vs Board of Ed, 46 of
  African American, 39 of Latino, and 11 of White
  Students Attend High Schools with Weak Promoting
  Power (60 or less)

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Not All Majority Minority HSs Have Weak
Promoting Power. Two Notable Exceptions Are

• Selective Admission High Schools in Large Cities
• Majority Minority HSs in Affluent Suburbs

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• Where Are High Schools with Weak Promoting Power
  Located?

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High Schools with Weak Promoting Power Are
Located in a Sub-set of the Nations Cities and
States

• 80 of the High Schools that have the lowest
  levels of promoting power (50 or less) and
  produce the highest numbers of dropouts are
  located in just 15 states

Arizona Louisiana North CarolinaCalifornia Michig
an Ohio Florida Mississippi Pennsylvania Georgia N
ew Mexico South Carolina Illinois New York Texas
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• 43 of the High Schools with the lowest levels of
  promoting power are located in Just 34 Cities

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• In Some Cities Students Have Virtually No Other
  Choice but to Attend a High School with Weak
  Promoting Power

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• There Are Some Notable Regional Differences

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• In Northern Industrial States Weak Promoting
  Power Schools Are Almost Exclusively Attended by
  Minority Students and Located in Large and Medium
  Size Cities

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• In the South, Weak Promoting Power High Schools
  Can be Found in High Numbers Throughout the
  States

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Policy Implications

• Good News
• Manageable number of schools and we can locate
  the bulk of the work
• Converging discourse on what needs to be done
• Increasing level of know how
• Leadership and support

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Policy Implications

• Bad News
• Transforming low performing high schools and
  systems is not easy, fast, or cheap

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Not Easy

• Need comprehensive and systemic approach to avoid
  isolated efforts that exacerbate inequity
• Consider multiple approaches as appropriate to
  context
• Develop and scale-up technical and human supports
  for transformation
• Align federal, state, district, and school-based
  efforts

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Not Fast

• The trick is how to sustain interest in a reform
  that requires a generation to complete. Debbie
  Meyer
• NCLB States must acknowledge reality and
  progress using multiple indicators

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Not Cheap

• Continue and expand public and private funding
• Institutionalize targeted resources
• Title I
• Perkins

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• Center for Social Organization of Schools,
  Johns Hopkins University
• www.csos.jhu.edu
• 410-516-8800