AP US Government

1
AP US Government Politics

• Chapters 9 10
• Nominations, Campaigns,
• Elections and Voting Behavior

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Political Campaigns and Candidates

• Electronic media, especially TV, have
  dramatically changed American campaigns since
  1952.
• Televised debates have been used since 1960.
• The Modern Campaign
• Campaigns design a product to sell -the
  candidate-
• - Campaigns spending most money end up
  selling their productthey win!
• (Estimated 4 billion in 2000, 1.5 billion on TV
  alone 5 billion in 2004)
• 
  2008 - http//projects.washingtonp
  ost.com/2008-presidential-candidates/finance/compa
  rison/by-spending/
• 2012 - http//elections.nytimes.com/2012
  /campaign-finance
• Internet websites
• spent on advertising Majority of funds to TV
  ads the rest to print ads, staffing, travel,
  hiring polling and technology firms etc.
• SuperPACs http//abcnews.go.com/WNT/video/stewart-
  oversee-colbert-superpac-15358509

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Campaign Organization

• Organized chaos and major stress!
• Candidate at center constant press public
• Professional and volunteer help
• - Campaign manager and political consultant
• Also, fundraisers, media team for ads tv,
  press secretary, personal appearance planners,
  speech-writers, state and regional coordinators,
  and volunteer support groups at every level
  (local, state national)
• Incumbent Advantage
• Can use current position actions to
  orchestrate appearances, spend in key areas, get
  easier access to television etc.
• Already have large, proven campaigns
• Congressmen/women hold greater incumbency
  advantage than presidents due to local power
  unlimited terms

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• The Undecided are essential
• Regarding party identification
• 2/3 of voters identify with a major party
• Independents on the rise
• Candidates try to preserve their base while
  winning over the independents and the undecided.
• Independent voters more likely to shift
  impressions during a campaign
• Today's campaign strategists target voters by
  battleground states, or on specific categories
  like age and race.

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• Nomination
• Official endorsement of a candidate for office
• by a political party.
• Success in the nomination game requires momentum,
  money, and media attention.
• Campaign Strategy
• Master game plan that guides a candidates
  electoral campaign.
• Competing for Delegates winning your partys
  nomination
• National Party Convention
• Super-delegates Party leaders automatically get
  delegate slot at national party convention.

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Road to the White House

• Primaries v. General Election Campaign
  strategies differ
• Primary election at polling place w/i party
  to determine
• candidate
• OR Caucus simultaneous precinct level
  meetings
• throughout state to select/determine
  party candidate
• General Election Electorate at precinct polling
  places casts votes for a partys
  candidate to win office
• Primary season strategy draws in party activists,
  thus candidates tend to lean more to the left or
  right.
• First, Iowa Caucuses in February, then New
  Hampshire Primary
• http//www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2012-r
  epublican-primary-schedule/
• Frontloading choosing early date on primary
  calendar
• - This tradition poses problem not
  representative of US electorate, hence the
  creation of Super Tuesday where a number of
  states hold primaries.

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Types of Primaries

• Open Primary Registered voters voting in any
  primary regardless of party affiliation
• - potential raiders could vote in opposite
  party primary
• Closed Primary Only registered party affiliates
  may vote
• Nonpartisan Primary A qualifying primary used to
  reduce the set of candidates that go on to the
  general election
• (city, county, school boards)
• Run-off Primary Top two candidates move on to
  general election regardless of party affiliation
• Blanket primary vote for candidates from more
  than one party for different offices.

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• January 3 Iowa (caucuses)
• January 5 Wyoming (GOP caucuses)
• January 8 New Hampshire (primary)
• January 15 Michigan
• January 19 Nevada (precinct caucuses), South
  Carolina (R primary)
• January 26 South Carolina (D primary)
• January 29 Florida
• February 1 Maine (R)
• February 5 Alabama, Alaska (caucuses), Arizona,
  Arkansas, California, Colorado (caucuses),
  Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho (D
  caucuses), Illinois, Kansas (D caucuses),
  Massachusetts, Minnesota (caucuses), Missouri,
  Montana (R caucuses), New Jersey, New Mexico (D),
  New York, North Dakota (caucuses), Oklahoma,
  Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia, American Samoa
  (caucuses)
• February 9 Louisiana, Kansas (R), Nebraska (D
  caucuses), Washington (DR caucuses)
• February 10 Maine (D caucuses)
• February 12 District of Columbia, Maryland,
  Virginia
• February 19 Hawaii (D), Washington (R primary),
  Wisconsin
• March 4 Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont
• March 8 Wyoming (D)
• March 11 Mississippi
• April 22 Pennsylvania

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Road to the White House

• General Election
• Strategy changes from primary elections no
  longer discussing
• polarizing issues.
• Candidates focus on position or divisive issues
  emphasize
• valence issues, which do not divide the public.

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How are the presidential candidates selected in
their party? PRIMARIES/CAUCUSES Each
political party in each state will
have Caucus- choose local delegates,
informal precinct meeting express preference
for a presidential candidate (Michigan -
Democrats) OR Presidential Primary Electorate
(qualified voters) votes at polling place Also,
elect state delegates who will vote for
presidential candidates at future
conventions (Michigan Republicans)
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• District and State Conventions
• select delegates to attend larger conventions
• these delegates vote on presidential candidates
• Political Party National Conventions
• (Democrats Republicans)
• - State delegates select a presidential candidate
  for their party
• - adopt platform
• unify the party
• Example of a national convention
• Opening session organization speeches, keynote
  speaker
• 2nd and 3rd sessions speeches, propose platform
• Final session nominating speeches, nominate
  partys presidential candidate

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Where and How to Campaign

• After winning nomination, candidates spend more
  time campaigning in pivotal states w/ large s of
  electoral votes
• - Nixon learned lesson when changing his vow to
  campaign in all 50 states in 1960 (lost) to
  campaigning in 10 populous battleground states
  in 1968 (won)
• Modern campaigns waged through.
• TV, Internet, direct mail debates.
• Spots paid television time/ads
• Visuals news broadcasts
• Some say most debates do not affect campaigns.
• (Exceptions JFK Reagan)
• Why?
• Candidates resort to stock speeches to avoid
  dreaded slip of the tongue which could be
  exploited by opposition.

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Negative Campaigning

• Does it work?
• Unfortunately, it works!
• Issues get lost when the attacks/mudslinging
  begins, which is
• almost immediately.
• In 2004, Bush attacked Kerry as a
  "flip-flopper".
• "Swift Boat Veterans for Truth" attacked Kerry's
  Vietnam war record
• - Dems claimed the 527 group bankrolled by Bush
  supporters in Texas
• - Republicans claimed MoveOn.org was connected
  to Kerry campaign
• In 2008, McCain attacks Obama as a socialist
  not being as patriotic. Obama attacks McCain as
  more of the same (like Bush) disregarding the
  middle class.
• Now in 2012, Romney campaign criticizing Obama
  as not providing hope or change also saying we
  cannot afford 4 more years.

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• Historically, the GOP has had better reputation
  in
• foreign policy issues
• Democrats in office during wartime up to Bush
  Sr. in Gulf.
• But, in 2004, George W. Bush argued invasion of
  Iraq made the world safer.
• - Kerry launched attack calling invasion "a
  diversion from the battle against our greatest
  enemy-al Qaeda.
• In 2008, McCains POW hero status overpowers
  Obamas lack of national experiencebut Obama
  celebrity-like
• What about the packaging of a president? Who
  does the public view as better looking, more
  poised, eloquent?

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• Are our officeholders becoming more skilled at
  running for office than in governing?
• - Candidates can appear to be something they are
  not Actors trying to win a competition, rather
  than politicians trying to change policy issues
  to better society.

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Campaign Finance

• Money comes from public private sources
• -Congressional elections funded by donations from
  
• - Individuals (maximum limit 2000 but most give
  less than 200),
• - Political Action Committees (PACs limited to
  5000), and - Political Parties.
• plays large role in Congressional elections.
• Presidency
• In primaries, candidates receive federal
  matching funds for all individual donations of
  250 or less.
• General election funds come from government
  unless the candidate does not accept the federal
  - if they dont, then they are not subject to
  spending limits
• These federal dollars come from 1973 check off
  law voters electing to donate (in 2004, 3) to
  campaigns

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Campaign Finance

• 1974 Federal Campaign Reform Law
• - created Federal Election Commission (FEC)
• http//www.fec.gov/
• - limited individual donations to 1000 per
  candidate (now 2,000)
• - reaffirmed ban on union corporate donations
• - PACs must have at least 50 members, give to at
  least 5
• federal candidates and limit donations to
  5000
• - Primary General counted as separate
  elections
• - Minor party candidates can receive partial
  federal funding if reach 5 of vote in previous
  election
• These laws to control spending did not work as
  intended..

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Campaign Finance Loopholes

• Soft money Donations made to party organization
  rather than a particular candidate
• - 2002 Bipartisan Reform Act, now subject to
  limits
• 527 groups independent political organizations
  not regulated by FEC not subject to the same
  contribution limits as PACs claim they are
  issue-oriented rather than candidate-oriented
• Bundling gathering individual checks to donate
  to
• campaign, the family bundle
• Independent Expenditures Money spent by these
  independent organizations usually in the form
  of advertising candidates may not have link

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Campaign Finance

• 2002 Bipartisan Campaign Reform
  akaMcCain-Feingold
• - Banned contributions of soft money to national
  parties
• - Prohibits the use of funds for "issue ads
  mentioning
• candidate
• Legal ads w/candidates name will be approved
  by candidate
• - Doubled individual donation limits to 2000.
• Regardless, parties create 527s to skirt the
  regulations.
• McCain-Feingold was contested opponents said it
  violated 1st amendment free speech
• Supreme Court upheld McCain-Feingold.

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Campaign Finance

• Original 1974 limits on independent expenditures
  were struck down in Buckley v. Valeo in 1976 on
  the grounds of freedom of speech
• - Opened up spending by independent
  organizations!
• OK to spend a Buck
• Electioneering communication i.e. broadcasts
  about candidate must include disclaimer stating
  it was not endorsed by the candidate.
• - prohibited 60 days before general election
  30 days prior to primary

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Regulating Campaign Finance
The RULES http//www.fec.gov/pages/brochures/citi
zens.shtml See above link because FEC regulations
change! - Individuals may contribute up to
2,500 to a federal candidate in
each primary and general election. (up to
117,000 over 2 years) - Interest groups limited
to 5000 - Presidential candidates from major
parties qualify for public funds if they raise
100,000 in contributions then are limited to
spending what they receive (75 mil in 2004)
cannot accept private monies - Donor disclosure
when over 200 - FEC enforces laws -
Corporations, labor unions, foreign contributions
all illegal Political Action Committees
(PACs) independent arms of organizations like
corporations and unions influential!
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• The Proliferation of PACs
• Political Action Committees are funding vehicles
  created by the 1974 campaign finance reforms.
• A corporation, union, or some other interest
  group can create a political action committee
  (PAC) and register it with the Federal Election
  Commission.
• There were 4,611 PACs during the 20072008
  election cycle, which contributed 412.8 million
  to House and Senate candidates.
• PACs donate to candidates who support their
  issue.
• PACs do not buy candidates, but give to
  candidates who support them in the first place.

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ELECTIONS

• Direct elections of the voting eligible
  population (electorate) for legislators
• Primary elections determine a partys nominee
• General elections determine who wins the office
  between the nominees of parties
• Initiative petitions enable voters in 23 states
  to place proposed legislation on ballot if gather
  required of signatures on a petition (usually a
  number equaling 10 of the voters in the previous
  election).
• Referendums are a form of direct legislation in
  which voters may approve or disapprove some
  legislative act (such as school bonds) or
  constitutional amendments.

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http//www.minnpost.com/politics-policy/2012/11/ma
rriage-amendment-reports-detail-states-most-expens
ive-ballot-battle-ever
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Congressional Elections Population

• 1911-12, House of Representatives fixed at 435
  seats
• Reapportionment Act of 1929 established permanent
  method for apportioning the seats according to
  each census
• State Legislators responsible for drawing
  district lines (redistricting) after every
  decennial census every 10 years States may
  gain or lose districts, district populations may
  shift
• Census Bureau conducts population count every 10
  yrs.

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One Person, One Vote

• Court ruled each person's vote is worth as much
  as another's (Equal Protection clause under 14th
  amendment)
• 1946 Court refused to look at malapportionment
  unfair distribution of representatives to a
  legislative body
• 1962 Baker v. Carr - Court ruled they have right
  to intervene in Tennessee's reapportionment
  efforts that ignored economic growth population
  shifts
• 1964 Reynolds v. Sims - Seats in both houses of
  state legislature should be based on population.
• 1964 Wesberry v. Sanders - Court expanded Baker
  and Reynolds principle to include the drawing of
  Congressional district boundaries according to
  the one person, one vote principle.
• Gerrymandering malapportionment illegal!

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Voting Behavior and Elections

• Democracy in theory v. Democracy in practice
• Roughly 50 of VEP inactive in presidential years
• Elitism
• Media "images" rather than informing electorate.
• Voting for "lesser of two evils instead of third
  party
• Are we truly a democracy?
• If not, who to blame?
• Is the system democratic?
• - Opportunity to participate exists.

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The Voter

• Middle-aged people vote more than the young or
  very old.
• In 2000, over ½ between 18 and 24 did not
  register
• Peaks in mid 40-50s declines after 60
• By 2000, 3 more women voting than men
• Participation ? if graduate from college
• Income, education, social class, occupation
  closely related the higher these are, the more
  likely the person will vote.
• Churchgoers vote more than nonchurchgoers
• African Americans less likely due in part to
  legal games, intimidation violence that kept
  them out prior to the Voting Rights Act of 1965.
• Understanding your influence in politics
  political efficacy

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The Nonvoter

• 35 to 45 of population
• Who are they? In general
• Less educated, rural, nonwhite, very young or
  very old, and have less emotional investment in
  politics.
• Pattern emerging from data the more advantaged
  in the social system are more likely to vote than
  the disadvantaged.

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The Socioecomonic Factors

• Socioeconomics..
• -Generalizations-
• Social class, income, and occupation.
• Upper and middle classes go for the GOP
• lower classes go for Democrats.
• Workers, unions vote Democrat
• professionals business people support
  Republicans.
• Being a member of many groups causes one to be
• "cross-pressured
• An older, wealthy, Caucasian gay male
• A young, African American military sergeant
• A middle-aged, wealthy, Catholic teacher

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The Psychological Factors

• Party identification.
• By 1999, 34 considered themselves Democrats, 28
  Republicans 38 independent.
• Signs this is becoming less significant
• 2009
• http//www.gallup.com/poll/122693/Democratic-Advan
  tage-Party-Affiliation-Shrinks.aspx
• The candidates
• (i.e) Eisenhower, a military hero, led short-term
  switches to the GOP.
• The issues
• - Controversial issues, wars, economy, etc.
• --------------------------------------------------
  ---------------------------------
• Retrospective voting voters tend to make up
  their minds by looking back at what happened
  under current leaders.
• - If the economy is failing.something must be
  wrong.
• Rational choice individuals engage in political
  behavior to serve their own
• best interests

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• Policy Voting
• Electoral choices made on the basis of the
  voters policy preferences and where the
  candidates stand on policy issues.
• Mandate Theory of Elections
• The idea that the winning candidate has a mandate
  from the people to carry out his/her platforms
  politics.
• Politicians like the theory better than political
  scientists do.

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Coattails

• In a presidential election year, the vote for
  president may affect the vote for Congress, and
  even state and local races.

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• Coattails
• Common pattern - incumbent president's party
  loses ground.
• Recent years seem to show that the coattail
  impact is diminishing.
• A large number of states have scheduled
  gubernatorial elections in off-years to insulate
  them from presidential politics.

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Types of Elections

• Realignment election - Parties win support of a
  new coalition of voters...a shift in the bases of
  electoral support from one party to another
• Maintaining election no change in party i.d. of
  voters
• Deviating election voters maintain party
  identity but still cast their vote for the
  opposition

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Suffrage

• Suffrage or Franchise The Right to Vote
• The Constitution, written in 1787, grants states
  the right to establish voter
• qualifications. States restricted suffrage to
  white male property owners
• over 21 years of age.
• Brief history of the expansion of the American
  electorate
• 1. Early 1800s, states drop religious, property
  ownership and property tax qualifications.
• 2. 1870, 15th Amendment, intended to extend
  suffrage to any man regardless of race, color or
  previous condition of servitude.
• 3. 1920, 19th Amendment, Womens suffrage
• 4. 1960s, Civil Rights Acts federal government
  restricting tactics to get around the 15th
  Amendment, including the elimination of poll
  taxes and literacy testing
• 5. 1971, 26th Amendment, no state can set voting
  minimum age limit higher than 18 years old.

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• How were minorities, especially African
  Americans,
• disenfranchised after the 15th Amendment is
  ratified?
• 1. VIOLENCE, lynching
• Threats and social pressures loss of
  employment,
• eviction etc.
• 3. literacy testing
• 4. poll taxes
• 5. gerrymandering drawing district lines to
  favor/limit the voting strength or political
  influence of a group or party
• 6. White Primary party restricting preliminary
  elections to white voters

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• Governments solution to the problem of states
  and
• citizens disenfranchising minorities (mainly
  African
• Americans)
• Civil Rights Acts
• 1957
• Set up Civil Rights Commission investigating
  voter
• discrimination
• Injunction federal court orders, allows federal
  court to order states/people to obey laws and
  provide equal opportunity to all qualified voters
• 1960 federal government appoints federal
  voting referees
• 1964 federal government bans registration
  discrimination

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• Poll Taxes unconstitutional dropped 24th
  Amendment (1964)
• Voting Rights Act of 1965
• Any new election law needs to be pre-cleared
  through Department of Justice
• Voting Examiners are appointed to troubled
  States/Counties to oversee election process
• Extended amendments in 1970, 75, 82 suspend the
  right to administer literacy testing until 2007.
• All laws affect every level
• local, state national elections

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Voter Registration

• Debate exists over whether voting should be made
  easier.
• Voter has to take initiative may not make the
  effort.
• 1993 "Motor voter" bill - People could register
  in motor vehicle offices, public assistance
  benefits offices, and military recruitment
  offices.
• Ballots differ in states/counties
• Secret Australian ballot adopted by every state
  by 1950.
• -Party-column (Indiana) ballots group candidates
  of each party in columns, making straight-ticket
  voting easier.
• -Candidates on an office-column (Massachusetts)
  ballot grouped according to office they are
  running for.
• In 2000, Oregon went to an all-mail ballot.
• 2000 Florida elections controversial butterfly
  ballot chads

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FLORIDA 2000 BALLOT
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Recounting ballots manually donehave to
determine the intent of the voter
Court can decide if recount is done in a fair
manner Florida considered to be in violation
of equal protection clause of 14th amendment
which stopped the recount in 2000. Bush wins.
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Framers of Constitution their plan for electing
U.S. President Vice President
63

• 12th Amendment, 1804
• Electors chosen by parties still cast two ballots
  
• One for the President
• One for the VP
• 12th amendment
• separated the elections
• to prevent a tie
• (which occurred in 1800)

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Electing the President - Electoral College

• 1. Each Party selects a slate of electors.
• The of electors in a state depends on
  population
• Also, it is the same of Congresspersons
  representing the state.
• Minnesota has 2 senators 8 representatives
• 10 Congresspersons therefore, MN gets10 electors.
• Congressmen/women CANNOT be electors!
• Electors are delegates chosen from party.
• http//www.commissions.leg.state.mn.us/gis/congmap
  data.htm

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Electing the President Electoral College

• 2. General Election every 4 years Tuesday after
  first Monday in November
• Qualified voters (electorate) cast ballots for
  all electors
• representing a particular party in each state.
• Ballots list candidates names instead of
  parties electors names.
• You are voting for a slate of electors for a
  political party to vote for you, not directly for
  the candidates!

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Electing the President Electoral College

• 3. Electoral Vote
• Monday after second Wednesday in December
• -Electors of the party winning the popular vote
  in each state cast ballots for Pres. Vice Pres.
• -Winner-take-all Candidate receiving popular
  vote in state gets ALL electoral votes in state.

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Electing the President Electoral College

• 4. Electoral Ballots counted January 6
• - Electors cast two ballotsone for pres one
  for vice this prevents a tieseparation
  resulted from election of 1800 and 12th amendment
• Candidate receiving majority of electoral votes
• (at least 270 of 538) becomes President
  January 20
• What if no majority (less than 270 electoral
  votes) is reached?
• The election is thrown into Congress.
• House of Representatives will select President
• Senate will select Vice President

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2004 Electoral ResultsRed Bush, Republican
Blue Kerry, Democrat
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2008 Presidential Election
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Online Election Predictor

• http//www.electoral-vote.com/
• predictions change daily according to state
  polling data the votemaster is an American
  citizen who works as a professor of economics at
  a university in Amserdam. He claims the site is
  as nonpartisan as possible provides a link to
  other sites who also makes predictions.
• Blog covers issues affecting the election

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Flaws of Electoral System

• Winner of popular vote may not win the majority
  of the electoral votes (due to population
  differences in states)
• 1824 Adams d. Jackson, 1876 Hayes d. Tilden ,
  1888 Harrison d. Cleveland,
• 2000 Bush d. Gore http//www.infoplease.com/ipa/
  A0876793.html
• No enforced law requiring electors to cast vote
  for popular candidate (it is expected though)
• faithless electors http//www.thegreenpapers.c
  om/Hx/FaithlessElectors.html
• Strong minor party bid may make it impossible for
  a candidate to achieve 270 votes, then election
  goes to Congress
• - Most widely supported reform is direct popular
  election!

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Small states are overrepresented in the electoral
college system obviously these states are
proponents of the system regardless of its flaws
.
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Bush v. Gore, 2000

• 5-4! Court reversed Florida high court - there
  were no uniform standards for inspecting
  ballotsin violation of equal protection clause
  within the 14th amendment
• Ruling settled the election by stopping the
  recount
• George W. Bush became president even though did
  not win popular vote.

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