Ar-Ge%20Performans%20G

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Ar-Ge Performans GöstergeleriIV
Doç. Dr. Serhat Çakir ODTÜ
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Ar-Ge Performans Göstergeleri
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Ar-Ge ve Yenilik Iliskisi
Yaratici fikirlerin kaynagi veya yenilik
sürecinde bir sorun çözme aracidir.
Yaratici Fikir
Ticarilestirme
4
ULUSAL BTY SISTEMI DÖNGÜSÜ
Özel Sektör Üniversiteler Kamu Ar-Ge
Merkezleri ...
TBMM, BTYK ....
DEGERLENDIRME
BTYK, DPT, TÜBITAK,TÜIK,..
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SOSYO-EKONOMIK HEDEFLER
Politika Yapicilarina Geribildirim
KAMUNUN POLITIKA STRATEJISI
Programin Operasyonel Mekanizmasinin Tasarlanmasi
Beklenen Sonuçlar
Destek Programinin Olusturulmasi Misyonunun
Belirlenmesi
Program Yönetimine Geribildirim
DEGERLENDIRME
GIRDILER
ETKILER
ÇIKTILAR (OUTPUTS)
SONUÇLAR (OUTCOME)
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Sosyal Hedef BTY yoluyla yasam kalitesinin
arttirilmasi
Kamunun BTY Stratejisi Kamu-Özel Sektör
Isbirligi Programi
Ar-Ge Destek Programinin Yetkilisinin
Belirlenmesi ve Misyonu
Operasyonel Mekanizmanin Belirlenmesi
Destek Programidan Beklenenlerin Tanimlanmasi

• Degerlendirme Programinin Gelistirilmesi
• Gelismelerin Belirlenmesi
• Gelismelerin Izlemesi
• Temel Kavramlarin, Baglantilarin ve Süreç
  Dinamiklerinin Daha Iyi Anlasilmasi
• Iliskilerin Analizi
• Girdilerin, Çiktilarin, Sonuçlarin ve Etkilerin
  Ölçülmesi
• Elde Edilen Sonuçlarla Misyonda Belirlenen
  Hedeflerin Karsilastirilmasi
• Bulgularin Dagitilmasi,
• Bulgularin Programi Gelistirilmede Kullanilmasi

• Girdiler
• Bütçe
• IK
• Altyapi
• Diger

• Çiktilar(Outputs)
• Desteklenen Projeler
• Isbirligi
• Patent ve Yayin
• Modeller/Algolitmalar
• Prototip Ürünler/Süreçler

• Sonuçlar(Outcome)
• Yeni Gelistirilmis Ürün/Süreç/Hizmetler
• Verimliligin Artmasi
• Firmanin Büyümesi
• Endüstriyel Büyüme
• Isbirligi Egilimi/Bilginin Paylasilmasi
• Tasma (Spillover) Etkisi

• Etkiler
• GSYIHnin artmasi
• Istihdamin Artmasi
• Uluslararasi Rekabet Gücünün Artmasi
• Yasam Kalitesinin Artmasi/Tabana Yayilmis Kazanç

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Teknolojinin Difüzyonu ve Beklenen Etkiler

• Kisa Vade
• Ar-Ge Harcamalarinin
• Artmasi
• Hedeflerin Büyümesi
• Isbirligi
• Ar-Ge Istihdam Olanaklari
• Teknolojik ilerleme
• Proje Önerisinin Hazirlanmasi
• Ortakliklarin Olusturulmasi
• Kaynaklarin Belirlenmesi

• Orta Vade
• Spin-off Ürünler
• Ürün Gelistirme
• Maliyet
• Kalite
• Yeni Uygulamalar
• Yeni Süreçler
• Yeni Is Olanaklari
• Yeni Is Ortakliklari
• Kurulusun Büyümesi
• Patent, Yayin
• Rekabetciligin Gelismesi

• Uzun Vade
• Baska Yeni Ürünler ve Süreçler
• Pazarin Büyümesi
• Istihdam Olanaklari
• Üretim
• Dagitim
• Spillover
• Difüzyon

Toplam Ekonomik Kazanç
Ekonomik Etki
Proje Sahibi Firmanin Kazanci
Yil
0
-1
7
10
3
Proje Dönemi
Proje Sonrasi Dönem
8
Bilimsel ve Teknolojik Bilgi
T
Q
P
R
Toplumsal Kazanim
Ticari Kazanç, Firmalarin Rekabet Gücünün
Artmasi
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• OECD
• Ar-Ge Performansi
• Gösterge Seti

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Gross domestic expenditure on RD (GERD)

• Gross Domestic Expenditure on RD -- GERD
  (million current PPP )
• 1.a. GERD (million national currency - for euro
  area, pre-EMU euro or EUR)
• 2. GERD as a percentage of GDP
• 3. GERD -- (million 2000 dollars -- constant
  prices and PPP)
• 3.a. GERD -- Compound annual growth rate
  (constant prices)
• 4. GERD per capita population (current PPP )
• 5. Estimated Civil GERD as a percentage of GDP
• 6. Basic research expenditure as a percentage of
  GDP

11
RD Personnel (FTE)
7. Total researchers (FTE) 7.a. Total
researchers -- Compound annual growth rate 8.
Total researchers per thousand total employment
8.a. Total researchers per thousand labour force
9. Total RD personnel (FTE) 9.a. Total RD
personnel -- Compound annual growth rate 10.
Total RD personnel per thousand total employment
10.a Total RD personnel per thousand labour
force
12
GERD by source of funds
11. Industry-financed GERD as a percentage of
GDP 12. Government-financed GERD as a percentage
of GDP 13. Percentage of GERD financed by
industry 14. Percentage of GERD financed by
government 15. Percentage of GERD financed by
other national sources 16. Percentage of GERD
financed by abroad
13
GERD by performance sectors
17. Percentage of GERD performed by the Business
Enterprise sector 18. Percentage of GERD
performed by the Higher Education sector 19.
Percentage of GERD performed by the Government
sector 20. Percentage of GERD performed by the
Private Non-Profit sector
14
Researchers (headcount)
21. Total researchers (headcount) 21.a. Women
researchers (headcount) 22. Women researchers as
a percentage of total researchers (based on
headcount) 22.a. Business Enterprise Sector
Total researchers (headcount) 22.b. Business
Enterprise Sector Women researchers (headcount)
22.c. Business Enterprise Sector Women
researchers as a percentage of total researchers
(based on headcount) 22.d. Government Sector
Total researchers (headcount) 22.e. Government
Sector Women researchers (headcount) 22.f.
Government Sector Women researchers as a
percentage of total researchers (based on
headcount) 22.g. Higher Education sector Total
researchers (headcount) 22.h. Higher Education
sector Women researchers (headcount) 22.i.
Higher Education sector Women researchers as a
percentage of total researchers (based on
headcount)
15
Business Enterprise Expenditure on RD (BERD)
23. Business Enterprise Expenditure on RD --
BERD (million current PPP ) 23.a. BERD (million
national currency - for euro area, pre-EMU euro
or EUR) 24. BERD as a percentage of GDP 25.
BERD -- (million 2000 dollars -- constant prices
and PPP) 25.a. BERD -- Compound annual growth
rate (constant prices) 26. BERD as a percentage
of value added in industry
16
Business Enterprise Expenditure on RD (BERD)
23. Business Enterprise Expenditure on RD --
BERD (million current PPP ) 23.a. BERD (million
national currency - for euro area, pre-EMU euro
or EUR) 24. BERD as a percentage of GDP 25. BERD
-- (million 2000 dollars -- constant prices and
PPP) 25.a. BERD -- Compound annual growth rate
(constant prices) 26. BERD as a percentage of
value added in industry
17
Business Enterprise RD Personnel (FTE)
27. Business Enterprise researchers (FTE) 27.a.
Business Enterprise researchers -- Compound
annual growth rate 28. Business Enterprise
researchers as a percentage of national total
29. Business Enterprise researchers per thousand
employment in industry 30. Total Business
Enterprise RD personnel (FTE) 30.a. Total
Business Enterprise RD personnel -- Compound
annual growth rate 31. Total Business Enterprise
RD personnel as a percentage of national total
32. Total Business Enterprise RD personnel per
thousand employment in industry
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BERD by source of funds
33. Industry-financed BERD -- (million 2000
dollars -- constant prices and PPP) 33a.
Industry-financed BERD -- Compound annual growth
rate (constant prices) 34. Industry-financed
BERD as a percentage of value added in industry
35. Percentage of BERD financed by industry 36.
Percentage of BERD financed by government 37.
Percentage of BERD financed by other national
sources 38. Percentage of BERD financed by
abroad
19
BERD performed in selected industries
39. BERD performed in the aerospace industry
(million current PPP ) 39.a. Percentage of BERD
performed in the aerospace industry 40. BERD
performed in the electronic industry (million
current PPP ) 40.a. Percentage of BERD
performed in the electronic industry 41. BERD
performed in the office machinery and computer
industry (million current PPP ) 41.a.
Percentage of BERD performed in the office
machinery and computer industry 42. BERD
performed in the pharmaceutical industry (million
current PPP ) 42.a. Percentage of BERD
performed in the pharmaceutical industry 43.
BERD performed in the instruments industry
(million current PPP ) 43.a. Percentage of BERD
performed in the instruments industry 44. BERD
performed in service industries (million current
PPP ) 44.a. Percentage of BERD performed in
service industries
20
Higher Education Expenditure on RD (HERD)
45. Higher Education Expenditure on RD -- HERD
(million current PPP ) 45.a. HERD (million
national currency - for euro area, pre-EMU euro
or EUR) 46. HERD as a percentage of GDP 47.
HERD (million 2000 dollars -- constant prices and
PPP) 47.a. HERD -- Compound annual growth rate
(constant prices) 48. Percentage of HERD
financed by industry
21
Higher Education RD Personnel (FTE)
49. Higher Education researchers (FTE) 49.a.
Higher Education researchers -- Compound annual
growth rate 50. Higher Education researchers as
a percentage of national total 51. Higher
Education Total RD personnel (FTE) 51.a. Higher
Education Total RD personnel -- Compound annual
growth rate
22
Government Expenditure on RD
52. Government Intramural Expenditure on RD --
GOVERD (million current PPP ) 52.a. GOVERD
(million national currency - for euro area,
pre-EMU euro or EUR) 53. GOVERD as a percentage
of GDP 54. GOVERD (million 2000 dollars --
constant prices and PPP) 54.a. GOVERD --
Compound annual growth rate (constant prices)
55. Percentage of GOVERD financed by industry
23
Government RD Personnel (FTE)
56. Government researchers (FTE) 56.a. Government
researchers -- Compound annual growth rate 57.
Government researchers as a percentage of
national total 58. Government Total RD
personnel (FTE) 58.a. Government Total RD
personnel -- Compound annual growth rate
24
Government Budget Appropriations or Outlays for
RD by socio-economic objectives (GBAORD)
59. Total Government Budget Appropriations or
Outlays for RD -- GBAORD (million current PPP )
59.a. Total GBAORD (million national currency -
for euro area pre-EMU euro or EUR) 60. Defence
Budget RD as a percentage of Total GBAORD 61.
Civil Budget RD as a percentage of Total GBAORD
62.a.1. Civil GBAORD for Economic Development
programmes (million current PPP ) 62.a.2.
Economic Development programmes as a percentage
of Civil GBAORD 62.b.1. Civil GBAORD for Health
and Environment programmes (million current PPP
) 62.b.2. Health and Environment programmes as
a percentage of Civil GBAORD 62.c.1. Civil
GBAORD for Education and society (million current
PPP ) 62.c.2 Education and Society as a
percentage of Civil GBAORD 62.d.1. Civil GBAORD
for Space programmes (million current PPP )
62.d.2. Space programmes as a percentage of
Civil GBAORD 62.e.1. Civil GBAORD for
Non-oriented Research programmes (million current
PPP ) 62.e.2. Non-oriented Research programmes
as a percentage of Civil GBAORD 62.f.1. Civil
GBAORD for General University Funds (GUF)
(million current PPP ) 62.f.2. General
University Funds (GUF) as a percentage of Civil
GBAORD
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RD Expenditure of Foreign Affiliates
63. RD expenditure of foreign affiliates
(million current PPP ) 63.a. RD expenditure of
foreign affiliates (million national currency -
for euro area, pre-EMU euro or EUR) 64. RD
expenditure of foreign affiliates as a percentage
of RD expenditure of enterprises
26
Patents
65. Number of triadic patent families (priority
year) 65.a. Number of patent applications to the
EPO (priority year) 65.b. Number of patent
applications to the USPTO (filing year) 66.
Share of countries in triadic patent families
(priority year) 67. Number of patent
applications to the EPO in the ICT sector -
(priority year) 67.a. Number of patents granted
at the USPTO in the ICT sector - (priority year)
68. Number of patent applications to the EPO in
the biotechnology sector - (priority year) 68.a.
Number of patents granted at the USPTO in the
biotechnology sector - (priority year)
27
Technology Balance of Payments (TBP)
69. Technology balance of payments Receipts
(million current dollars) 69.a. Technology
balance of payments Receipts (million national
currency - for euro area, pre-EMU euro or EUR)
70. Technology balance of payments Payments
(million current dollars) 70.a. Technology
balance of payments Payments (million national
currency - for euro area, pre-EMU euro or EUR)
71. Technology balance of payments Payments as
a percentage of GERD
28
International trade in highly RD-intensive
industries
72. Export market share Aerospace industry
72.a. Total imports Aerospace industry (million
current dollars) 72.b. Total exports Aerospace
industry (million current dollars) 73. Export
market share Electronic industry 73.a. Total
imports Electronic industry (million current
dollars) 73.b. Total exports Electronic
industry (million current dollars) 74. Export
market share Office machinery and computer
industry 74.a. Total imports Office machinery
and computer industry (million current dollars)
74.b. Total exports Office machinery and
computer industry (million current dollars) 75.
Export market share Pharmaceutical industry
75.a. Total imports Pharmaceutical industry
(million current dollars) 75.b. Total exports
Pharmaceutical industry (million current dollars)
76. Export market share Instruments industry
76.a. Total imports Instruments industry
(million current dollars) 76.b. Total exports
Instruments industry (million current dollars)
29
Diger
A.1. Gross Domestic Product (million national
currency - for euro area, pre-EMU euro or EUR)
A.2. Gross Domestic Product (million current PPP
) B. Implicit GDP Price Indices (2000 1.00)
C. Purchasing Power Parities (national currency
per dollar) D.1. Value added of Industry
(million national currency - for euro area,
pre-EMU euro or EUR) D.2. Value added of
Industry (million current PPP ) E. Population
(thousands) F. Total Employment (thousands) G.
Industrial employment (thousands) H. Labour
Force (thousands) I. Exchange rates (national
currency per dollar)
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Kisaltmalar
BERD - Expenditure on RD in the Business
Enterprise Sector FTE - Full-time Equivalent
(on RD) GBAORD - Government Budget
Appropriations or Outlays for RD GERD - Gross
Domestic Expenditure on RD GOVERD - Government
Intramural Expenditure on RD GUF - General
University Funds HERD - Expenditure on RD in
the Higher Education Sector NSE - Natural
Sciences and Engineering PNP - Private
Non-Profit Institutions RD - Research and
Experimental Development SSH - Social Sciences
and Humanities GDP- Gross Domestic Product ISIC
- International Standard Industrial
Classification PPP- Purchasing Power
Parities SITC- Standard International Trade
Classification TBP- Technology Balance of
Payments
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Ar-Ge Harcamasi - GSYIH Iliskisi
Kaynak OECD MSTI, UNESCO, TÜIK
32

• Ulusal
• Ar-Ge Performansi Göstergeleri

33
Ar-Ge Parasal Kaynaklar
34
Ar-Ge Harcamalari
Yüksekögretim Ar-Ge personel harcamalarinda 2006
yilindan sonra net yerine brüt ücretler hesaba
katilmistir
35
Ar-Ge Harcamasinin GSYIHye Orani
Yüksekögretim Ar-Ge personel harcamalarinda 2006
yilindan sonra net yerine brüt ücretler hesaba
katilmistir
35
35
35
36
Ar-Ge Harcamasinin GSYIHye Orani
Ülke 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Türkiye 0.59 0.58 0.72 0.73 0.85 0.84
ABD 2.57 2.61 2.67 2.79
Almanya 2.49 2.53 2.53 2.68 2.82
Japonya 3.32 3.40 3.44 3.44
Israil 4.37 4.40 4.76 4.86 4.27
Ispanya 1.12 1.20 1.27 1.35 1.38
G. Kore 2.79 3.01 3.21 3.36
OECD (Ortalama) 2.21 2.24 2.28 2.34
AB-27 1.74 1.77 1.77 1.84 1.92
AB-15 1.86 1.89 1.90 1.95
Kaynak OECD
37
Ar-Ge Harcamalarinin Finans Kaynaklari
2008 yili öncesi, Devlet Üniversiteleri
tarafindan saglanan finans kaynaklari kamu
sektörüne, Vakif Üniversiteleri tarafindan
saglanan finans kaynaklari ise ticari kesime
dahil edilmistir.
38
Ar-Ge Harcamalarinin Finans Kaynaklari
2008 yili öncesi, Devlet Üniversiteleri
tarafindan saglanan finans kaynaklari kamu
sektörüne, Vakif Üniversiteleri tarafindan
saglanan finans kaynaklari ise ticari kesime
dahil edilmistir.
38
39
Gerçeklestiren Sektörler Bazinda Ar-Ge
Harcamalari
Yüksekögretim Ar-Ge personel harcamalarinda 2006
yilindan sonra net yerine brüt ücretler hesaba
katilmistir
40
Gerçeklestiren Sektörler Bazinda Ar-Ge
Harcamalari Orani
Yüksekögretim Ar-Ge personel harcamalarinda 2006
yilindan sonra net yerine brüt ücretler hesaba
katilmistir
40
41
Sektörler Bazinda Ar-Ge Harcamalari Orani ()
Sektör 2002 2007 2010 ABD 2007 AB-27 2007 TR 2013 Hedefi
Yüksek Ögretim 64 48 43 13 22 26
Özel Sektör 29 41 46 72 63 60
Kamu 7 11 11 11 14 14
41
41
Kaynak TÜIK, OECD
42
Ar-Ge Insan Kaynaklari
42
43
Ar-Ge Insan Gücü
44
Tam Zaman Esdeger (TZE) Ar-Ge Insan Gücü
Tam Zaman Esdeger (TZE) AR-GE 'de çalisan insa
n gücünün yaptigi AR-GE faaliyetlerinin adam
yil olarak degeridir. AR-GE'ye ayrilan zaman 
yüzdesinin kisi sayisi ile çarpimidir. (Bir TZE bi
r adam-yil olarak hesaplanir)
44
44
44
45
Ar-Ge Insan Gücü
Son 5 yilda ortalama 1 kisi 0,47 TZE
46
2010 yili hedefi 10.000 çalisan basina 23 TZE
Arastirmaci 2013 yili hedefi 10.000 çalisan
basina 50 TZE Arastirmaci
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10.000 Çalisan Basina TZE Arastirmaci Sayisi
Ülke 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Türkiye 20 21 24 25 27 28
ABD 96 96 95
Almanya 70 72 73 75 77
Japonya 106 107 106 102
Finlandiya 166 166 157 162 166
Ispanya 57 58 59 64 70
G. Kore 79 86 95 100
OECD (Ortalama) 74 75 76
AB-27 63 64 64 66 68
AB-15 68 70 70 72
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Sektörlere Göre TZE Ar-Ge Personeli Sayisi (x1000)
49
Sektörlere Göre TZE Ar-Ge Personeli Dagilimi
50
Sektörlere Göre TZE Ar-Ge Personeli Sayisi (x1000)
51
Son 20 yilin ortalamasi Arastirmaci
81.7 Teknisyen9.6 Diger Destek Personeli8.7
52
Ar-Ge kapasitesinin gelistirilmesi
52
53
(No Transcript)
54
Kaynak Sanayi ve Ticaret Bakanligi
43 Teknoloji Gelistirme Bölgesinin 31i
faaliyete geçmistir.
55
Özel Sektör Ar-Ge Merkezleri

• 31 Temmuz 2008 tarihinde yayimlanan yönetmelikten
  sonra 1 Agustos 2008-31 Eylül 2011 tarihleri
  arasinda Ar-Ge Merkezleri ile ilgili gelismeler
  
• Ar-Ge Merkezi kurmak için basvuran isletme
  sayisi 129
• Ar-Ge Merkezi Belgesi verilmesi uygun bulunan
  isletme sayisi102
• Basvurusu reddedilen isletme sayisi12
• Basvurusu yetersiz olmasi nedeniyle kabul
  edilmeyen isletme sayisi5
• Ar-Ge Merkezi Belgesi verilmesi uygun bulunan 102
  adet isletmede
• Ar-Ge personel sayisi 14.000
• 2008-2010 yillari arasinda gerçeklesen Ar-Ge
  harcamasi 4,8 Milyar TL.

56
Sektörlere Göre Ar-Ge Merkezi Sayisi
Sektörü Sayi
Bankacilik 1
Bilgi ve Iletisim Teknolojileri 13
Cam ve Seramik 2
Dayanikli Tüketim Mallari 10
Elektrik-Elektronik 11
Ilaç 4
Kimya 4
Kuyumculuk 1
Makine 1
Mobilya 1
Otomotiv 13
Otomotiv Yan Sanayi 25
Savunma Sanayi 10
Tekstil 6
Genel Toplam
57
Ar-Ge Merkezleri Personel Sayisi
58

• Çiktilar

59
Kaynak ISI WoS
60
(No Transcript)
61
Patent Basvurulari
Kaynak TPE
61
61
62
(No Transcript)
63
(No Transcript)
64
(No Transcript)
65
(No Transcript)
66
Triadik Patent Sayilari ve Ülke Paylari
Ülke 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Türkiye 8 0.02 13 0.03 12 0.02 17 0.04 22 0.04 21 0.04
ABD 14720 31.63 15098 31.55 15272 31.30 15088 30.55 14823 30.33 14399 30.03
Almanya 5409 11.62 5598 11.70 5733 11.75 6011 12.17 6029 12.34 5875 12.25
Japonya 13948 29.97 13699 28.63 13610 27.89 13872 28.09 13599 27.83 13446 28.04
Finlandiya 299 0.64 335 0.70 344 0.71 365 0.74 348 0.71 348 0.72
Ispanya 153 0.33 211 0.44 214 0.44 214 0.43 217 0.44 223 0.47
G. Kore 1680 3.61 1953 4.08 2112 4.33 2255 4.57 2145 4.39 2006 4.18
OECD 45729 98.27 47016 98.25 47758 97.88 48296 97.79 47632 97.47 46691 97.38
AB-27 13206 28.38 13875 29.00 14204 29.11 14684 29.73 14727 30.14 14525 30.29
Israil 289 0.62 343 0.72 446 0.91 390 0.79 372 0.76 389 0.81
67

• Hedefler..

68
Ulusal Bilim ve Teknoloji Sistemi Performansi
  2006 2007 2008 2010 Hedef 2010 Hedef 2013
Ar-Ge Harcamasi/Kisi (SAGP ) 78 98 105 127 124 ?
TZE Arastirmaci Sayisi (bin) 43 50 53 64 40 ?
Arastirmaci Sayisi/ Bin Çalisan 2,1 2,4 2,5 2,8 2,3 5
Kamu S. Ar-Ge Harcamasi () 11,2 10,6 12 11,4 12 14
Bilimsel Makale/milyon kisi 220 267 278 325
Bilimsel Yayin/milyon kisi 290 343 349 371 400 ?
Yeni Ürün cirosu/Toplam Ciro () 9,56 - 10 ?
Kaynak TÜIK,
69
Ulusal Bilim ve Teknoloji Sistemi Performansi
  2006 2007 2008 2010 Hedef 2010 Hedef 2013
Ar-Ge Harcamasi/GSYIH (1987 bazli) 0,76 0,95 0,96 1,1 ?
Ar-Ge Harcamasi GSYIH (1998 bazli) 0,6 0,72 0,73 0,84 - 2
TZE Ar-Ge Personeli (bin) 54 63 67 81 - 150
Özel S. Ar-Ge Harcamasi - 35,6 41,3 44,2 42,5 50 60
Özel S. Ar-Ge Fonlamasi - 44,3 46,2 47,3 45,1 50 55
YÖgretim S. Ar-Ge Harcamasi- 53,2 48,2 43,8 46 38 26
Üçlü Patent Sayisi 16 19 18 - 100 ?
Kendi Yenilik Yapan KOBI/ T.KOBI- 25,4 - 40 ?
Birlikte Yenilik Yapan KOBI/T. KOBI- 4,5 - 20 ?
Kaynak TÜIK, 2006-2008
70
2 hedefi için
2008-2013 arasinda GSYIHnin her yil 7
büyüyecegi varsayimiyla