Arab Governments: The Quest for Security

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Arab GovernmentsThe Quest for Security
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LecturerLieutenant Colonel Mike Meyer

• Undergrad. Degree Latin American History
• MastersNat. Sec. Affairs (Mid-East) and Arabic
• Middle East and Political Military Affairs
  Specialist
• Intelligence OfficerAviation and Political
  Affairs
• Analyst and Briefer for Commander, USCENTCOM
• Political Advisor to Commander, USCENTAF
• Air Attaché, U.S. Embassy, Damascus, Syria
• AF Recruiting Squadron Commander, Maxwell AFB

Bagram Air Base Afghanistan
Reminders of the Regime Baghdad, Iraq
Tomb of Salah Al-Din Damascus, Syria
At the Pyramids Giza, Egypt
With A Syrian Contact Damascus, Syria
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Agenda

• Common Characteristics of Security-Conscious Arab
  States
• What Means Do Arab States
• Employ to Ensure Security?
• What are the Implications for
• the Region?

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No Truly Free Arab Countries

• 0 of 22 Arab Governments are Truly Freely Elected
• UN Human Development Report, 2002, Identifies 3
  Deficit Areas
• Freedom, Knowledge, and Womens Participation
• Assumption of Power and Governance Based on
  Patronage and Loyalty
• Contradicts Trend of Democratization in Other
  Parts of Developing World During the Past Few
  DecadesL. America, Africa, Far East, E. Europe
• Syria Freedom House--7/7 Political Rights 7/7
  Civil Rights
• Pres. Bashar Al-Asad Confirmed by Referendum Son
  of Hafiz Al-Asad
• Constitution Changed Overnight in Wake of
  Fathers Death
• Parliament is Merely a Rubber Stamp
• Egypt 6/7 Political and Civil Rights
• President Mubarak in Power Since 1981
• No True Opposition Allowed

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• Saudi Arabia 7/7 Pol. and 7/7 Civ. Rights
• Saud Family has Ruled Monarchy since 1932
• No Parliament and 90-member, appointed
  Consultative Council
• No Political Parties Allowed
• Qatar 6/7 Pol. and 6/7 Civ. Rights
• Current Ruler Overthrew Father in 1995
• Prime Minister from Same Family
• No Parliament and 35-member, appointed Cons.
  Council
• Jordan 6/7 Pol. and 5/7 Civ. Rights
• Monarchy with Succession From Father to Son
• 2 Chambers of Parliament, One of which is Elected
• Political Parties are Allowed with Limited
  Participation
• Few Bright SpotsLimited Political
  Liberalization
• Morocco, Bahrain, and Kuwait
• Jury Still Out on Iraq, but Progress is Being
  MadeOnly Because the Coalition Overthrew Saddam
  and is Present. Key will be Whether Populace
  will Put Up with Turbulence Associated w/ Lack of
  Security as Democratic Processes are
  Institutionalized

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Common Characteristics of Security Conscious Arab
States

• With Exception of Lebanon and the Palestinian
  Territories,
• Arab States Remarkably Stable For Three
  Decades
• King Hussein, Jordan, More than 40 Years
• Hafiz Al-Asad, Syria, 30 Years
• Hosni Mubarak, Egypt, 23 Years
• Saddam Hussein, Iraq, Almost 25 Years
• Authoritarian Governments Dominate the Arab World
• Many Leaders Live in Fear
• Rulers Fear Political Reform as a Catalyst for
  Instability
• Arab Countries are Often Essentially Police
  States with Relatively Large Security Services
  and MilitariesArmed Forces are Not Servants of
  the People, But Served by the People (Corruption)
• Despite Rich Cultural Composition and Histories,
• Civil Society is Often Stifled or Closely
  Monitored
• Large Portions or Majority of Population Often
  Cut Out
• or ImpoverishedNo Vehicles for Upward
  Mobility

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What Means Do Arab States Employ to Ensure
Security?

• Co-opting and Promoting Particular (and often
  Minority) Ethnic Groups,
• as well as Attaining the Loyalty of Key
  Tribes
• SyriaAlawis from the Coastal Mountains
• IraqSunnis from the Sunni Triangle/Tikritis
• JordanBedouin Families from East Bank
• Controlled Demonstrations and Protests
• Pressure Valves
• Promotion of Military SocietiesMost Arab
  Leaders Either Rose Up through the Military or
  Closely Identify Themselves with the Military
• Numerous and Overlapping Intelligence
  AgenciesMore Eyes the Better!
• Dual Militaries with Simultaneous External
  Defense and Internal Protection Missions. In
  Fact, 1 Mission is Actually Regime Protection

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Implications for the Region

• Economic
• Unless Oil/Natural Gas Revenues High, Development
  is Stifled As Bright
• Young People Emigrate or Are Forced to
  Settle for Jobs Beneath Capabilities
• Welfare States Like Saudi Arabia are Threatened
  by a Lack of Opportunity
• Defense Budgets are Disproportionately High,
  Taking Money From Civilian Industry
• Military/Security
• Sycophants, Often from Particular Ethnic Groups,
  Advance Before Capable Leaders
• Unit Morale is Negatively Affected as Personnel
  are Watched
• Centralized Control Slows Speed at which
  Operations are Executed
• Jealousies Hurt Cooperation Between Individual
  Services
• Leaders Chase High-Profile Military Items vs.
  Most Practical Ones
• Social/Political
• Political Cronies and Loyalist Leaches Attain
  High-Level Positions
• Due to a Lack of Legal Outlets for Frustration,
  Extremism on the Rise
• Militant Islam on the Rise
• More and More Band-Aid Fixes Needed to Hold
  Together Societies