Demographic Transition Model

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Demographic Transition Model

• Highlight Color RED

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The Problem

• The size, composition, and growth of population
  affect the economic and environmental well-being
  of nations.
• Rapid population growth in regions such as
  sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East require
  huge commitments of national resources.
• Countries with declining growth rates may have
  large elderly populations that require large
  expenditures of resources to support the aging.

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The Study

• Geographers and demographers use the Demographic
  Transition Model as a framework for
  understanding the dramatic variations in birth,
  death, and growth rates world wide.
• Based on the demographic history of European
  countries, the demographic transition model
  offers a generalized perspective of the way
  birth, death, and growth rates change through
  time.

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The Demographic Transition Model

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The Demographic Transition

• Stage 1 Low Growth
• Stage 2 High Growth
• Stage 3 Moderate Growth
• Stage 4 Low Growth or Stationary
• Stationary population level (SPL)?

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STAGE I Low Growth

• A - Stage 1Both high birth rates and death
  rates fluctuate in the first stage of the
  population model giving a small population growth
  (shown by the small total population graph).
  There are many reasons for this
• little access to birth control
• many children die in infancy (high infant
  mortality) so parents tend to have more children
  to compensate in the hopes that more will live
• children are needed to work on the land to grow
  food for the family
• children are regarded as a sign of virility in
  some cultures
• religious beliefs (e.g., Roman Catholics and
  Hindus) encourage large families
• high death rates, especially among children
  because of disease, famine, poor diet, poor
  hygiene, little medical science.

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STAGE 2 High Growth

• B - Stage 2Birth rates remain high, but death
  rates fall rapidly causing a high population
  growth (as shown by the total population graph).
  The reasons for this could be
• improvements in medical care - hospitals,
  medicines, etc.
• improvements in sanitation and water supply
• quality and quantity of food produced rises
• transport and communications improve the
  movements of food and medical supplies
• decrease in infant mortality.

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STAGE 3Moderate Growth

• C - Stage 3Birth rates now fall rapidly while
  death rates continue to fall. The total
  population begins to peak and the population
  increase slows to a constant. The reasons for
  this could be
• increased access to contraception
• lower infant mortality rate means there is less
  need to have a bigger family
• industrialization and mechanization means fewer
  laborers are required
• the desire for material possessions takes over
  the desire for large families as wealth increases
  
• equality for women means that they are able to
  follow a career path rather than feeling
  obligated to have a family.

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STAGE 4 Low Growth/ Stationary

• D - Stage 4Both birth rates and death rates
  remain low, fluctuating with 'baby booms' and
  epidemics of illnesses and disease. This results
  in a steady population.

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One last look

• Stage 5?A stage 5 was not originally thought
  of as part of the DTM, but some northern
  countries are now reaching the stage where total
  population is declining and where birth rates
  have dropped below death rates. One such country
  is Germany, which has taken in foreign workers to
  fill jobs. The UK's population is expected to
  start declining by 2021.

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Limitations

• Although the demographic transition model is a
  compelling and an extremely useful framework for
  viewing contemporary population change, we must
  be careful in using it to predict the future of
  Third World countries currently in the second or
  third stages.
• Their economies and populations are so different
  from those of Europe that we cannot be sure their
  demographic transition will resolve in the same
  way.

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Your Task

• In your notebook recreate the Demographic
  transition model.
• Using pg. 54 in your textbook and your notes
• Indicate trends in birth rate and death rate
• Label possible reasons for these trends within
  each stage.
• I will check and give you points first thing
  tomorrow.