SNAKES IN THE GRASS:

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SNAKES IN THE GRASS Open Source Intelligence
Doctrine Robert D. Steele, OSS
CEO ltbear_at_oss.netgt
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(No Transcript)
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WAR
LONG TIME
INFORMATION WARFARE
OPERATIONS SECURITY COUNTERINTELLIGENCE
THERE
HERE
INFORMATION PEACEKEEPING
INTELLIGENCE
EDUCATION
SHORT TIME
PEACE
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CIVIL CENTER OF GRAVITY
Private Sector!
Information Warfare
Information Peacekeeping
INFORMATION COMMONS
Open Source Intelligence
Electronic Security Counterintelligence
Education
Big Secret
Not Secret
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OSINT as Input
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DEFINITION
Information Peacekeeping is the active
exploitation of information and information
technology--in order to peacefully modify the
balance of power between specific individuals and
groups--so as to achieve national policy
objectives. The three elements of Information
Peacekeeping, in order of priority, are
intelligence (providing useful actionable
information) information technology (providing
tools for truth which afford the recipient
access to international information and the
ability to communicate with others and
electronic security counterintelligence (a
strictly defensive and preventive aspect of being
able to sustain Information Peacekeeping
operations. Robert D. Steele, 1994
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JOINT STAFF ISSUE AREAS

• J-1 No OOB for refugee/POW info.
• J-2 Assumes SI/TK will have it all.
• J-3 No OOB for IO/IW/IP
• J-4 No role in information supply
• J-5 Not held accountable for supportability
  of plans in terms of information availability
• J-6 Not accountable for coalition-civil
  interoperability or for ensuring that external
  information can be integrated/exploited

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NEW INTELLIGENCE GAP
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Existing doctrine assumes RI comes from IC or
other units!
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Whats Missing?
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COMPETING OSINT MODELS
Selective Importation System High/Firewall
Just Enough, Just in Time Default to Validated
OSINT
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FOUR THREAT/IO TYPES
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Thats it for doctrine.now on to the shortfalls
and the budget.
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REAL WORLD SHORT-FALLS
AFRICA ASIA PACIFIC EUROPE
MED WESTERN HEMISPHERE Algeria
Bangladesh Greece Argentina Angola
China Turkey Bolivia Djibouti
Indonesia Brazil Ethiopia
Kazakhstan Colombia Ghana
Kyrgystan Ecuador Kenya
Malaysia Grenada Liberia
Myanmar Jamaica Madagascar New
Caledonia Mexico Mozambique Papua New
Guinea Paraguay Namibia
Russia Peru South Africa Sri
Lanka Suriname Sudan
Viet-Nam Uraguay Uganda 4 Key
Island Groups Venezuela
For each of these countries, less than 25
available in 150,000 form, generally old data.
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PUTTING THE PIECES TOGETHER
Step 1 Commercial Imagery for wide-area
mapping Step 2 Commercial Imagery for urban
detail (1-2M) Step 3 NRO Precision Points for
Map Orientation Step 4 Russian Military Maps for
Data Extraction Step 5 Current City Maps for
Embassy Locations Step 6 Ask a Defense Attache
Before Targeting Only one of these steps is
classified and only one of these steps is fully
funded
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THE PUBLIC BUDGET
Here is what we know about U.S. spending on
intelligence TOTAL U.S. INTELLIGENCE PROGRAM
(BARE BONES) 29.3B NATIONAL FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE
PROGRAM 16.4B National Reconnaissance
Program 06.4B Community Cryptologic
Program 03.4B Central Intelligence
Agency 03.2B General Defense Intelligence
Program 02.0B Other Departmental
Activities 01.4B JOINT MILITARY INTELLIGENCE
PROGRAM 03.6B Defense Advanced
Reconnaissance 01.7B Defense Mapping Agency
(now NIMA) 00.8B Other DoD 00.6B TACTICAL
INTELLIGENCE AND RELATED ACTIVITIES 09.3B Air
Force Tactical Intelligence 04.0B Army
Tactical Intelligence 02.8B Navy Tactical
Intelligence 01.8B Other DoD Tactical
Intelligence 00.7B
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BUDGETARY TRADE-OFFS
I do not advocate any cuts in the national or
defense intelligence budget but for the sake of
comparison, here are some over-funded and
under-funded elements OVERFUNDED UNDERFUNDED Lar
ge U.S. Stations Overseas (0.75B) Multi-national
Stations (0.50B) Imagery satellites
(2.0B) Commercial imagery purchase
(0.50B) Imagery collection (0.50B) Open source
collection (0.50B) Signals operations
(1.0B) Non-official clandestine ops
(0.25B) Signals satellites (1.5B) NATO/PfP OSINT
Program (0.25B) Production armies (0.75B) FBI
Support to Business (0.25) Designer C4I
(2.5B) Education of State Local (0.25B) Rough
Total 9B Over-Funded Rough Total 2.5B
Under-Funded